The 19th round of Corps Commander-level India-China talks in eastern Ladakh on August 14, 2023 lasted 10 hours. An Indian government press release on the joint statement highlighted the following: positive, constructive and in-depth discussion to resolve remaining issues; discussions in an open, forward-looking manner, in line with guidance of the leadership; agreement to resolve remaining issues expeditiously, maintaining the momentum of dialogue and negotiations through military and diplomatic channels; and agreement to maintain peace and tranquility in border areas in the interim.

Much is being made of the fact that not all previous rounds of talks ended with a joint statement, although China’s state media is silent on any joint statement. But this statement offers little other than similar diplomatic lingo used in previous joint statements. The important issue is the Chinese side neither agreed to disengage further, nor agreed to Indian patrolling in no-patrol zones (buffer zones), leaving aside demobilization. The media even triumphed about this meeting lasting only 10 hours compared to 15-16 hours in previous cases!

The above talks were followed by Major General-level talks on August 18 at two locations in eastern Ladakh. There is no news about the outcome yet but the media has quoted unnamed defence sources saying that: the discussion is about resolving legacy issues; resumption of patrolling in  Depsang plains; PLA presence at 'Y Junction' (19 km inside Indian territory in Depsang); and in case of any headway, another round of Corps Commander-level talks would follow to finalize the outcomes.

Through spin doctoring, Indian diplomats have avoided admitting how PLA shifted the Line of Actual Control (LAC) westwards through the invasion of eastern Ladakh in 2020. The above media admission for the first time of PLA presence at the 'Y Junction' was known since 2020. Yet, the Indian defence minister kept harping “not even an inch of territory has been lost”. But this minister would be at a loss to explain if this indeed is the case, what are these 19 rounds of talks about?

Spin doctoring and ground reality

The fact is that Indian troops can no longer access 26 of their 65 Patrolling Points (PPs) between Karakoram (KK) Pass and Chumar in eastern Ladakh. Ironically, these PPs were established well short of the LAC in eastern Ladakh from the very beginning, perhaps for fear of annoying Beijing. But this is not all. All buffer zones, including in locations like the north bank of Pangong Tso, Galwan and Hot Springs, are inside Indian territory. Yet, the Indian media keeps repeating that Depsang and Demchok are the only two outstanding "friction points" (euphemism for intrusions) in Ladakh.

When the last few Corps Commander-level meetings lasting from 10 to 16 hours have achieved precious little, China giving any concessions now is unlikely, especially when it calls all the shots. Mention of “legacy issues” by the media appears another attempt at spin doctoring with reference to Depsang and Demchok although China has successfully shifted the LAC even west of its 1959 claim line, which was not acceptable to India in the first place.

We may keep referring to the buffer zones also as “no patrol zones” in joint statements released by the Indian side, but China has never said so. That is why China demanded a 15-20 km buffer zone in Depsang in recent times. There is little chance of any compromise by China but spin doctoring from our side will continue in all probability.

Brazen Chinese moves

When Xi Jinping came to visit in September 2014, India went gung-ho with Tibetan protests concurrent to Modi-Xi discussions in New Delhi. But a distinct change was visible after the Modi-Xi tête-à-tête during a follow-up visit by Modi to China. China is presently profiting more through India-China bilateral trade than it was before invading eastern Ladakh in 2020.   

The Chinese foreign ministry said on July 24, 2023, that Xi and Modi reached an important consensus on stabilizing China-India relations in Bali last year. Is this about India accepting the status quo or China’s ruse before more offensive action? Xi appears unaffected by Western shenanigans to checkmate China, not even boasting of limited nuclear wars with Russia and China. Brazen Chinese war games are continuing in proximity to Taiwan as the PLA prepares for more conflict with China.  

The Major General-level talks (initially described as confidence building) apparently aim for a conducive atmosphere when Modi comes face to face with Xi at Johannesburg for the BRICS Summit August 22-24. But without a meeting of the two leaders on the sidelines of the summit - of which there is no indication presently - any progress towards normalization of relations will remain a chimera.    

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)