The political landscape of Bangladesh has been thrown into turmoil following the fall of Sheikh Hasina's government. The arrest of Hasina's ministers and leaders, along with the shake-up in the administration through promotions, sackings, and postings, signals a significant shift in the power dynamics of the country. One of the most unique aspects of this interim government is the inclusion of two students, marking a historical moment in the political history of Bangladesh. Except for the Awami League, all major political parties have pledged their support to the interim government. However, they are simultaneously pressuring it for early elections, eager to seize the opportunity presented by this transitional phase.

BNP eager for early elections

In the current political landscape, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) emerges as the dominant force after the fall of Hasina. With no other major party standing in its way, BNP is understandably eager for early elections. A swift return to the polls would likely deliver significant political dividends to BNP, capitalizing on the vacuum left by the ousted Awami League. This eagerness is not just a matter of political ambition; it is seen as a strategic necessity. An early election would allow BNP to consolidate its position before the interim government or any new political force can stabilize and pose a challenge.

 The party's desperation for elections stems from a calculated belief that their chances of winning are maximized in the current state of flux. The absence of Hasina and the weakened state of her party present BNP with a golden opportunity to reclaim power. However, this urgency for early elections is not without its complications, as the dynamics of other political entities and social movements come into play.

Opposition to Tareque Rahman

While BNP is pushing for quick elections, it faces a significant hurdle in its bid to bring back Tareque Rahman, son of former prime minister Khaleda Zia and late president Ziaur Rahman, into active politics. Rahman, who is the acting chairman of BNP currently living in exile, holds a pivotal role within the BNP. However, his return is fraught with challenges. Student organizations, which have gained considerable influence in the interim government, are staunchly opposed to Rahman's political rehabilitation. Their opposition is rooted in a broader movement for political reform and anti-corruption, which sees Rahman as emblematic of the old, corrupt political order.

 Additionally, legal barriers complicate Rahman's return. He has been convicted to a life term in several cases, making his re-entry into Bangladeshi politics a legally arduous process. The BNP's leadership finds itself in a dilemma, caught between the pressure from its rank and file to bring back Rahman and the broader legal and political constraints that make this difficult. This situation significantly weakens BNP’s position, as the party risks alienating a key section of the interim government while also potentially losing a charismatic leader who could galvanize its base.

Jamaat-e-Islami in no hurry

In contrast to BNP's eagerness for quick elections, Jamaat-e-Islami, another significant political player, is in no hurry to go to the polls. The party was severely crippled during Sheikh Hasina’s regime, with many of its leaders hanged or imprisoned, and its organizational structure badly damaged. The economic sanctions and social ostracism that followed have left the party in a state of disarray. For Jamaat, the priority is to regroup and rebuild its strength before entering another election battle.

A rushed election would spell disaster for Jamaat as the party is not yet in a position to compete effectively. The interim period is crucial for them to reorganize, regain lost ground, and reestablish themselves as a force in Bangladeshi politics. As such, they are advocating for a delay in elections, giving them the time they need to recover from the setbacks of the previous regime.

Other parties support BNP

Other smaller parties, including those led by figures like VP Nur and Andaleeb Rahman Partha, have aligned themselves with BNP’s demand for early elections. For these parties, quick elections are seen as a strategic move that could enhance their political fortunes. They believe that aligning with BNP, which is poised to dominate the political landscape in the absence of the Awami League, could secure them a share in the government once it is formed.

These smaller parties have their own interests at heart, seeing an opportunity to carve out a niche for themselves in a new government dominated by BNP. Their support for early elections is therefore less about ideological alignment and more about pragmatic political calculation. By backing BNP, they hope to ensure their survival and relevance in the post-Hasina political order.

Student organizations against early polls

On the other side of the political spectrum, student organizations that have been at the forefront of the anti-discrimination movement are against the idea of early elections. These groups, which have gained unprecedented influence in the interim government, argue that they need time to establish a strong political party that can represent the voices of the marginalized and oppressed. They view the old political parties, including BNP, as part of the problem, rather than the solution, to Bangladesh's entrenched social and political issues.

For these student organizations, the interim period represents a crucial window of opportunity to build a new political force that can challenge the status quo. Rushing into elections would, in their view, merely restore the old power structures without addressing the underlying issues of discrimination and inequality that they are fighting against. As such, they are advocating for a longer interim period, during which they can lay the foundations for a new political movement.

Other Islamist parties' role limited

Other Islamist parties, such as Hefazat-e-Islam and Islami Oikya Jote, are not significant factors in the current political equation. While they have a certain level of support, particularly among more conservative sections of the population, their influence is limited. These parties have a loyal but small vote bank, which is not enough to make them decisive players in the broader political landscape.

Moreover, their focus is often more on religious and social issues than on democratic governance, which limits their appeal to the broader electorate. As such, while they may play a role in influencing the outcome of elections in certain constituencies, they are unlikely to be major players in the formation of the next government. Their participation in the interim government's deliberations and future elections will be more about maintaining their relevance than about exerting significant political influence.

Future political landscape 

In this complex and fluid situation, BNP is likely to lead the charge against the interim government demanding early elections. However, this move could pit them against the student organizations that currently hold significant sway in the interim administration. The ensuing conflict could create a political vacuum that might allow the Awami League to re-enter the political fray, potentially in alliance with BNP or as a counterweight to the emerging student-led political forces.

The political chessboard in Bangladesh is thus set for a series of potential permutations and combinations. Alliances could shift rapidly, with old enemies becoming new allies and vice versa. The outcome of this period of transition is far from certain, with multiple forces vying for power and influence.

The fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government has ushered in a period of unprecedented political change in Bangladesh. The interim government, with its unique composition, is navigating a treacherous path filled with competing interests and conflicting demands. BNP’s push for early elections, Jamaat-e-Islami’s need for time to rebuild, the ambitions of smaller parties, and the rise of new political forces from the anti-discrimination movement all contribute to a highly volatile and unpredictable political environment. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future direction of Bangladesh’s democracy, as the country grapples with the challenges of this transitional phase.

(The author is a political analyst in Bangladesh. Views are personal. He can be reached at writetomahossain@gmail.com)