The near collapse of India-Canada diplomatic relations has exposed several firsts, including a prime minister directly accusing New Delhi of orchestrating homicides and extortion on his country’s soil and New Delhi directly accusing him of hobnobbing with terrorists.

With barely two weeks separating the 40th anniversary of the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on October 31, 1984, by elements of the Khalistan movement, which is at the heart of the spectacular collapse, it is obvious that history always breathes in our vicinity.

The current bilateral ferment is a result of the June 2023 assassination in British Columbia of Canadian national and pro-Khalistan campaigner Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Canada has accused Indian agents of having carried out the killing. Relations between the two have deteriorated dramatically ever since Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of involvement in September 2023.

A year down the line, the relationship has become deeply antagonistic with tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions and withdrawals over the Nijjar killing and Canadian allegations of top Indian diplomats being complicit in it.

Muscular posturing by India 

In turn, there has probably never been an instance in the history of India’s diplomacy of a government explicitly accusing the head of government of a friendly or unfriendly country of pandering to terrorists out of electoral expediency.

Even Pakistan, India’s permanent arch enemy, has not experienced its prime ministers being accused of personally fraternizing with terrorists and practicing “vote bank politics”.

The official statement by India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) is stunning in its unambiguity as it is unencumbered by diplomatic niceties. It is almost as if the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has decided to go for broke with Prime Minister Trudeau.

In turn, Trudeau has personally staked his prestige by accusing India of orchestrating a campaign homicides, extortion and violence. He too appears to have determined that doubling down by pushing every red button on India is his best course of action in the face of serious challenges to his political survival.

“We have received a diplomatic communication from Canada yesterday suggesting that the Indian High Commissioner and other diplomats are ‘persons of interest’ in a matter related to an investigation in that country. The Government of India strongly rejects these preposterous imputations and ascribes them to the political agenda of the Trudeau Government that is centered around vote bank politics,” the MEA statement said

“Prime Minister Trudeau’s hostility to India has long been in evidence. In 2018, his visit to India, which was aimed at currying favour with a vote bank, rebounded to his discomfort. His Cabinet has included individuals who have openly associated with an extremist and separatist agenda regarding India. His naked interference in Indian internal politics in December 2020 showed how far he was willing to go in this regard. That his Government was dependent on a political party, whose leader openly espouses a separatist ideology vis-à-vis India, only aggravated matters,” the statement by India’s Ministry of External Affairs said.

“Since Prime Minister Trudeau made certain allegations in September 2023, the Canadian Government has not shared a shred of evidence with the Government of India, despite many requests from our side. This latest step follows interactions that have again witnessed assertions without any facts. This leaves little doubt that on the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains,” it said.

“Under criticism for turning a blind eye to foreign interference in Canadian politics, his government has deliberately brought in India in an attempt to mitigate the damage. This latest development targeting Indian diplomats is now the next step in that direction. It is no coincidence that it takes place as Prime Minister Trudeau is to depose before a Commission on foreign interference. It also serves the anti-India separatist agenda that the Trudeau Government has constantly pandered to for narrow political gains,” the statement said.

“To that end, the Trudeau Government has consciously provided space to violent extremists and terrorists to harass, threaten and intimidate Indian diplomats and community leaders in Canada. This has included death threats to them and to Indian leaders. All these activities have been justified in the name of freedom of speech. Some individuals who have entered Canada illegally have been fast-tracked for citizenship. Multiple extradition requests from the Government of India in respect of terrorists and organized crime leaders living in Canada have been disregarded,” it said.

The statement has been crafted keeping in mind the muscular posturing of an avowedly nationalist government. Nothing has been couched in diplomatic nuance. It is almost as if the thinking is that if the bilateral bridge gets burned in the process, so be it.

Trudeau sticking to his guns 

On his part, Trudeau was equally blunt. At a news conference on Monday, he said, “I think it is obvious that the government of India made a fundamental error in thinking that they could support criminal activity against Canadians here on Canadian soil whether it be murders or extortion or other violent acts. This is absolutely unacceptable for any country, any democracy that upholds the rule of law. That is why we have taken such significant measures, that is why the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) chose to come out today and disrupt the patterns of Indian diplomats collecting through questionable and illegal means information on Canadian citizens that were then fed to criminal organizations that would then take violent actions, from extortion to murder against Canadians.

Trudeau said, “No country, particularly not a democracy that upholds the rule of law, can accept this fundamental violation of its sovereignty. Canada fully accepts and respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India. We expect India to do the same. In this case they did not.

Beyond the immediate flare up, the fact that Trudeau is sticking to his guns so publicly without offering any actionable evidence could mean that internally he is certain of the damaging nature of what his law enforcement has gathered. If not, then he is playing a dangerous game prompted by domestic political compulsions, with Trudeau's Liberal party known to have close ties with the Sikh diaspora, including the extremist fringe, with their deep pockets. The logic of that approach being that once he manages to win the next federal elections, likely about a year from now, by whatever politically cynical strategies necessary, he would then deal with the nearly terminally damaged relations with India. The question though is whether New Delhi would still be willing to reciprocate, and the larger implications of this diplomatic spat on India's ties with the US and the Western alliance.

(The writer is a Chicago-based Indian journalist, author and filmmaker. Views are personal. He can be reached at mcsix@outlook.com)