India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has announced that India and China have reached an agreement to resume patrolling up to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Eastern Ladakh. The MEA spokesperson said that India and China have been engaged in talks for several weeks at the diplomatic and military level, and that resumption of patrolling could lead to disengagement (https://x.com/jaitomar_review/status/1848307881738969438?t=UD2RUUEyPAknG-LYILYHsg&s=08). This announcement was made on October 21, after Prime Minister Narendra Modi had already departed to attend the 16th BRICS Summit at Kazan, Russia scheduled for October 22-24. 

China has been accusing India of aggression since day one. On September 8, 2024, the MEA issued a statement on the ‘Situation in Eastern Ladakh’, gist of which included: India, while is committed to disengagement and de-escalating but China continues to undertake provocative activities to escalate; the Indian Army has transgressed across the LAC or resorted to aggressive means; PLA has been blatantly violating agreements and carrying out aggressive manoeuvres; Indian troops, despite the grave provocation, troops have exercised great restraint and behaved in mature and responsible manner; the statement by China’s  Western Theatre Command is an attempt to mislead their domestic and international audience (https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/32946/Situation+in+Eastern+Ladakh).

Subsequently, a press release issued by the MEA on September 12, 2024 said that India and China have agreed to work with “urgency” and “redouble” their efforts to achieve complete disengagement in the remaining friction points in eastern Ladakh.  This is all diplomatic language, while China is determined to keep the Ladakhi territory it took in 2020.

Speaking at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) on October 1, 2024, Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said that the overall relationship with China had not been great because China had reneged on certain agreements it had with India about how to keep the border between the two countries tranquil.

Patrolling resumption not so simple

In recent months China has been signaling there will be no more pullback of PLA troops. There has been no statement from the Chinese side about the resumption of patrolling in eastern Ladakh so far either, but it is good if an agreement to the effect has been arrived at. However, resumption of patrolling after four years plus of standoff is not that simple.

China redrew the LAC in Ladakh in 2020 (https://news4masses.com/new-lac-in-ladakh/?amp=1), Indian troops  can’t patrol 26 out of 65 patrolling points (PPs), although these PPs were established years back “short” of the LAC in fear of the dragon. Would free patrol movement be allowed in the multiple buffer zones or a point designated up to which patrols can go? Would there be joint patrolling? Would patrols carry weapons? What are the chances of faceoff of patrols? 

How the above works out remains to be seen. However, what about the follow up “complete disengagement” and reversion to the pre-April 2020 posture, which India has been demanding? There has been speculation that China is mellowing down on the border issue because of its internal problems, including economic decline?

Reasons for China's changed stance

A contrary view is that China is changing its stance because of India opening up to Chinese investments as Beijing has gained economically from its substantial business presence in India. According to an eminent economist, China’s cumulative trade balance with India since 2000 has  exceeded a whopping $1.4 trillion (https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10227569441370536&id=1500196238&rdid=SEjLRp13IZCMvBYN).

Some feel that China wants to first concentrate on assimilating Taiwan and then deal with India. There is also speculation that the MEA statement of October 21 is to avoid a tense face-to-face between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping at the BRICS Summit in Kazan. It may be recalled that at the SCO Summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan (September 2022), attended by Modi and Xi, China distributed maps showing Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh as part of China and J&K as part of Pakistan, as then tweeted by former  MP Subramanian Swamy.

China has been saying that the border question should be left separate from the bilateral relationship, implying it should be kept on the back burner. Resumption of patrolling in Ladakh, in whatever form, will be good, But the reversion to pre-April 2020 posture by China is out of the question. The PLA has consolidated its new locations in eastern Ladakh occupied in 2020 with fire power, air support and beefed-up logistics. The completed bridge over Pangong Tso enables the PLA to quickly induct additional mechanized forces.  China’s G695 Highway through Aksai Chin, which will run close to Galwan, Hot Springs and Pangong Tso, is to be completed by 2035. China would want to capture more of Ladakh to provide depth to this highway.

Finally, notwithstanding the show of camamredire, India should be ready for another surprise by China anytime.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)