The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) hope that the farmers’ protests will fizzle out in the wake of the outrageous behaviour of some of them in the national capital on Republic Day has been belied. For the dashing of this expectation, the party has only itself to blame although it did have the upper hand for a day or two when the rowdiness of a section of the farmers on January 26 put them on the back foot.

But by renewing the branding of the protesters as anti-nationals on television by the BJP-friendly commentators and disrupting the electricity and water supply at the sites on Delhi’s border where the farmers have gathered, the party has only succeeded in stiffening the resolve of the protesters. Their determination to stay put may also have been strengthened by the physical attacks carried out by groups of locals who claimed to be angry over the impact on their daily lives by the over two-month-long agitation against the farm laws.

What also may have inconvenienced the BJP is the fact that some of the attackers chanted the now-familiar goli maro saalon ko (shoot the b …. ds) slogan which was made famous by the Union Minister of State for Finance, Anurag Thakur, during last year’s Delhi assembly elections when Muslim sit-in groups were protesting against the citizenship laws. Following this episode, the process of retreat which had started with some of the farmers packing their bags and pulling down their tents was reversed.

Faceoff a matter of prestige 

It is not that the government has given up all hope of making its will prevail. As the virtual sealing off of the three border points of Singhu, Tikri and Ghazipur where the protesters have gathered and the shutting down of the Internet in these localities show, the government expects the farmers to appreciate the roadblocks they are facing and return to the negotiating table. There have been other pinpricks as well such as the blocking of several Twitter accounts associated with the agitation.

However, as these official measures and the refusal of the farmers to budge demonstrate, the faceoff between the two sides has become a matter of prestige. While the government’s doggedness stems from the conviction about its own popularity which is occasionally bolstered by opinion polls, the farmers apparently derive their tenacity to carry on their movement even in the adverse conditions of a harsh winter from the fact that most of them are Sikhs, who are one of the toughest and doughty communities as their high representation in the Indian army shows. It is a confrontation, therefore, between two never-say-die antagonists.

Eye on elections

The government might have been more accommodating if it is wasn’t jittery about the political impact of a retreat at a time when the BJP faces four crucial elections where its chances are not foolproof. These are the Assam, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala assembly polls. The party is not sure how damaging a sign of weakness vis-à-vis the farmers will be in the electoral arena. Besides, the BJP has become unused to compromise after having had its way in Kashmir, where it scrapped the constitutional provision of special status, and in enacting the controversial citizenship laws which have unnerved the Muslims.

The three farm laws, too, were rammed through parliament with no prolonged debates and without being referred to a standing committee. These legislative successes have seemingly habituated the BJP to act as if it faces no obstacles. A weak opposition, and the opportunism of parties outside the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) like Biju Janata Dal, the YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), which have quietly gone along with the BJP in parliament, may have also fostered the ruling party’s belief in its own invincibility. For it to back down before the farmers are, therefore, unthinkable.

Lose-lose situation for country  

It is difficult to predict what will happen if the standoff continues. But one thing is certain: even if the BJP manages to contain any adverse fallout within the country, its reputation cannot but take a beating outside. Already, the government’s ties with Canada have been strained by the farmers’ issue. But the US, too, will not be too pleased with its Asian ally if the belief grows that the world’s most populous democracy is not as democratic as it claims to be as was evident from the draconian steps it took in Kashmir last year and the disquiet among Muslims on the citizenship issue. It would have been different if Donald Trump had won, but not now,  as the Democrats are more passionate and principled about their liberal ideals. 

Since neither the government nor the farmer is willing to change the stated positions – the former wants to stand by the laws while the farmers want their repeal – a prolonged deadlock is on the cards.

The election results, too, in the coming days will not make a difference. If the BJP fares well, it will become more uncompromising which will remain unacceptable to the farmers. If it doesn’t, the farmers will be further emboldened without forcing the government to concede any ground. It’s a lose-lose situation for the country.

(The writer is a commentator on current affairs. The views are personal)