In the first phase of polling for India's national elections on April 19, 2024, Manipur, which sends two members to the Lok Sabha, witnessed violence, arson and gunfire. This was more than expected with the rise of Arambai Tenggol, with their armed cadres roaming freely in Manipur (https://www.southasiamonitor.org/spotlight/are-manipurs-warning-bells-going-unheeded). The numbers of Arambai Tenggol cadres have reportedly swelled to 50-60,000 strong and they are well armed, which is fuelling the ethnic conflict. Understandably, the only major pre-election rally held in Manipur was by the Home Minister Amit Shah. 

The Kuki Inpi Manipur (KIM), the apex body of Kuki-Zo, had given a call to boycott the elections in April. Kangpokpi witnessed a heart-wrenching procession of Kuki women holding pictures of the mutilated body parts of two recently killed Kuki guards The video posted on social media said: “Viewer discretion is advised: This video contains gruesome content which may be too intense for some viewers.” 

National TV news channels showed a burning polling booth set on fire, while another showed an EVM vandalized and broken open. One woman told reporters, that she was standing in a queue with her family to vote but found their votes had already been cast, although she was not sure it was the handiwork of the Arambai Tenggol (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRrTo4fINBE). Firing at one polling booth reportedly injured three persons; in another incident, some voters were beaten up. Media reports indicate that police arrested three persons and recovered one gun and five rounds of ammunition.

According to government figures as of February 28, 2024, 219 people have been killed and 60,000 displaced since the violence that broke out in Manipur on May 3, 2023. Earlier figures also mentioned over 1,000 injured and 32 missing; 4,786 houses were burnt and 386 religious structures were vandalized, both temples and churches.

Ethnic cleansing and narcotics trade

The impression created by the political authorities is that the violence in Manipur is caused because of illegal immigration from Myanmar. However the Kukis, an ethnic group from the Chin-Kuki-Mizo Hills region of northeastern India, began settling in Manipur in the 16th century. Hence, they can hardly be confused with illegal immigrants from Myanmar. Moreover, with the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, the maximum refugees from that country have come to Mizoram, especially since the Chins inhabit both sides of the international border.

The major reason for unrest in Manipur is the ethnic cleansing of the Kuki-Zo community, which is also to allegedly make available 6,000 hectares of land for a private firm from whom advance payment has been taken. Then there is also the narcotics trade which reportedly has an annual turnover of Rs, 50,000 crore – much more than the Manipur state budget.

Polling booths had also been set up on April 19 for the 60,000 persons displaced and in temporary camps. However, looking at the violence, the Election Commission of India (ECI) ordered re-polling in 11 booths of Inner Manipur, where Arambai Tenggol has maximum sway. The re-polling date given by the ECI was April 22, and voting reportedly was conducted peacefully that day. 

The question here is why Manipur witnessed violence on April 19. Did the state not have adequate security forces after thousands of central forces were inducted into Manipur last year? Could the state not ask for additional forces to ensure smooth polling, as has been the case in the Maoists belt in Central India, particularly in the state of Chhattisgarh? Most importantly, does the rise, arming, and free hand given to Arambai Tenggol signal the arrival of private political armies in India?

Currently, the Arambai Tenggol, Meitei, Kukui-Zo and Nagas in Manipur are all well-armed. Arambai Tenggol demands that the government should abrogate the Suspension of Operations (SoO) agreement with the Kuki-Zo, which would ‘legalize’ Arambai Tenggol operations against the Kukis in concert with Manipur police forces. But running over and decimating the Kuki-Zo would likely remain a chimera because China is supplying arms to both sides and the Nagas will join hands with Kukis, knowing that after Kukis they are the targets, which has already been voiced by Nagas.  

Continuing ethnic strife

The year-long ethnic strife in Manipur has resulted in the migration of some community groups within the northeastern states in anticipation of more violence. But the fires are likely to continue singing the northeastern region. On April 23, 2024, Conrad K Sangma, Chief Minister of Meghalaya, posted a message to citizens of Assam and Meghalaya on X (https://x.com/SangmaConrad/status/1782616264730415198?t=J9Qo39I_5QebbkmAEWjzwA&s=03), drawing attention to the discovery of three charred bodies (residents of Assam) in East Garo Hills of Meghalaya, condemning the heinous act, assuring all-out effort to nab and punish the perpetrators, and appealing to all in Assam and Meghalaya to come together and refrain from resorting to vigilante justice or retaliation.   

With the Kuki-Zo boycotting elections, together with the muscular support from the Arambai Tenggol vigilante group, Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh would be more than assured of another term. But what will happen to northeast India with the continuing ethnic strife if Manipur remains hardly ambiguous with the External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar publicly admitting the influence of faith over policy (https://twitter.com/PTI_News/status/1782771198746591328?t=jZi1m1QVYqY1xvQWQJJkQw&s=03). One wonders!  

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal)