With his Aam Admi Party (AAP) pulling off a thumping victory in Punjab,  Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal has emerged as perhaps the most driven claimant to be the national opposition leader two years before India’s parliamentary elections. Although West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, the founder of the Trinamul Congress (TMC), can perhaps make an equally credible claim because of her recent victory over the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) juggernaut, there are factors that give Kejriwal the edge.

For one, he is sitting in the heart of the country’s capital and by implication in the heart of national politics. That gives him a perch and visibility that Banerjee may not necessarily enjoy. For another, the fact that as the leader of a city, which does not enjoy a full statehood, he and his party have won a hugely consequential state in terms of India’s agrarian economy as well its national security dimensions, makes him even more so.

Interestingly,  Kejriwal triggers as much animus and resentment among the extended Hindu right under the BJP as the duo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah do among the liberal and left-liberal circles. To that extent both Modi and Kejriwal concentrate national minds, the former, of course, far more than the latter. However, if this remains the AAP’s national trajectory, so far a doubtful prospect, he could emerge as the wiliest counter to Modi in 2024.

Modi, Kejriwal similarities

There are some obvious similarities between Modi and Kejriwal, the most important being messianic self-belief. Neither seems troubled by doubt and any wavering in their doctrinaire positions. All politicians have self-belief but in some,  it rises to messianic levels. Both Modi and Kejriwal have that and make no apology for that.

Off the top of one’s head, one cannot think of any other chief minister before Kejriwal who managed to win another state election with such force. That ought to count for something as he goes about extending the AAP’s national footprint.

One predictable outcome of the results in the elections to the five state legislatures of Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur is continuing erasure of the Indian National Congress Party under the ambiguous and confusing leadership of Sonia Gandhi and her two children, Rahul and Priyanka. In Uttar Pradesh, where the party once had complete sway, it won an embarrassing two seats. In Punjab, where it had its government, it lost 59 seats to possibly win just 18.

Modi hold over national discourse 

The Congress Party’s abysmal performance in Uttar Pradesh, where Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has pulled off a remarkable second victory, came in the aftermath of some sanguine campaigning by Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. For a while, an impression was created that she might just stem the rot and may make some credible gains in India’s most politically powerful state. The results fly in the face of that optimism. Barely two years before the parliamentary elections the party is even more adrift than before and has, in the process, nearly guaranteed that Narendra Modi towers and looms over the national discourse.

The BJP-Adityanath victory in Uttar Pradesh, despite having likely lost 54 seats from its previous total, is seen as a virtual guarantee that the Modi hold over India’s national politics is unlikely to diminish for the foreseeable future. Of course, in a profession where even one week is a long time, two years are fraught with any number of uncertainties, but the trends suggest that Modi has no existential threat from any rival so far.

Kejriwal and Banerjee may harbor subtle and not-so-subtle ambitions to step into the vacuum created by Rahul Gandhi-Congress vacating that space. However, it remains to be seen whether the BJP juggernaut can be stopped by either of them, separately or even jointly, given the fragmented state of the overall opposition.

In the wake of the result in Uttar Pradesh, it is clear that 2024 is for Modi to lose since there does not appear to be any comparable singular figure who can defeat him. For Kejriwal and Banerjee it is a huge task to create a national alternative in the next year and a half. At the very least though, Kejriwal stands significantly bolstered by Punjab.

(The writer is a Chicago-based journalist, author and filmmaker. Views are personal. He can be contacted at mcsix@outlook.com)