Nearly two weeks after the Pahalgam massacre, India retaliated with precision cross-border strikes under Operation Sindoor, targeting nine terror camps and headquarters of Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). While these strikes underscored India’s military capability and political will, the larger message was more than punitive—it marked a paradigm shift in deterrence strategy.

Credible Deterrence

Historically, India’s response to Pakistani provocations followed a punitive deterrence model. The Uri surgical strikes in 2016 and the Balakot airstrikes in 2019 were calibrated actions designed to send a message: any aggression would be met with retaliation. Yet, these limited responses allowed Pakistan to build the perception that it could absorb such actions without long-term consequence, especially with its ability to respond, as seen in Operation Swift Retort, where Pakistan violated Indian airspace a day after Balakot.

This tit-for-tat dynamic diluted the effectiveness of India’s deterrence. Pakistan continued its proxy war through cross-border terrorism, often operating with plausible deniability via groups like The Resistance Front, which functioned as offshoots of larger terror organizations.

India’s senior military leadership has long acknowledged the limitations of punitive deterrence. Former Army Chiefs General K. Sundarji and General S. Padmanabhan had advocated for a more assertive doctrine involving maximum and credible deterrence—not merely punitive but aimed at eroding Pakistan’s capacity for sub-conventional warfare. Operation Sindoor appears to be in line with this strategic vision.

Three Strategic Shifts 

Operation Sindoor marked three significant departures from previous retaliatory actions:

1. Geographical Expansion: Unlike earlier strikes confined to PoK, this time, India reportedly targeted key locations deep within Pakistan, including Bahawalpur and Mundke—both known havens for terror operatives.

2. Multiple Simultaneous Targets: The strikes weren’t limited to one or two camps but were spread across multiple locations, showcasing India’s operational reach and intelligence coordination.

3. Multi-Domain Deterrence: India complemented its military actions with diplomatic, economic, and geopolitical pressure. These included a five-point diplomatic offensive, temporarily suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, and isolating Pakistan at international forums like the UN Security Council, where Islamabad failed to gain traction with its "false flag" narrative.

These elements combine into a “double squeeze” strategy—exacerbating Pakistan’s internal vulnerabilities while isolating it externally. This shift signals India’s move toward a long-term, credible, and multidimensional deterrence model.

Toward Integrated Deterrence: A New Doctrine?

Operation Sindoor marks the beginning of India’s transition from immediate deterrence to a sustained strategic deterrence posture. If continued, this approach could push Pakistan to the strategic margins by targeting the leadership infrastructure—“the octopus head”—of terror groups rather than just their tentacles.

This evolution mirrors the United States’ own shift to “integrated deterrence” post-9/11, later adapted in its National Defense Strategy in response to emerging threats from Russia and China. Similarly, India appears to be departing from a traditional deterrence model, recognizing the need for a comprehensive response framework involving military, economic, and diplomatic tools.

Risk of Escalation

One persistent challenge in India-Pakistan hostilities is the risk of escalation. With Pakistan’s leadership historically influenced by hardline military figures—from Zia-ul-Haq to Asim Munir—the threat of miscalculation remains high.

While India’s actions have been precise and non-escalatory, aimed solely at terror infrastructure, Pakistan has resorted to indiscriminate shelling in trans-border areas like Poonch, in Jammu & Kashmir targeting civilians. Though Pakistan may contemplate limited retaliatory air or cross-border strikes, any move that misjudges India’s resolve could escalate the conflict further—at great cost to Islamabad.

Pakistan’s options are limited. Its western frontier is under siege from the TTP and Baloch insurgents. Its economy is in crisis. Another strategic misadventure could further isolate and destabilize the country.

India’s Operation Sindoor is not just a military retaliation—it is a signal of strategic transformation. With an emphasis on long-term credible deterrence, operational depth, and multi-domain pressure, New Delhi is redefining the rules of engagement with Pakistan. Islamabad would do well to recalibrate its approach and recognize the new reality: any miscalculated aggression will now face an overwhelming and multi-layered response.

(The author is a national security analyst specialising in intelligence and security analysis, with experience at leading think tanks. Views are personal. He can be contacted at srijansharma12@gmail.com)