On August 5, 2023, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, joined the list of several elected leaders in the country to be jailed on charges of corruption after being ousted from his office. Khan was convicted after a court in Islamabad passed its verdict on the Toshakhana (the government department which registers and stores gifts received by rulers and government officials) case, in which Khan was charged for not declaring his income from selling the gifts he received as the PM.

This is one of the many charges placed on Khan. Since the arrest, Khan has been disqualified from leading his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party and has been banned for five years from contesting the national election.

Khan, currently serving three years in prison, has denied all the charges. His lawyer Intezar Hussain Panjutha said they would be appealing again and claimed Khan to be a “political victim” framed by the military for having raised issues against the military establishment. He believed that Khan hadn’t received a fair trial. However, the information minister, Marriyam Aurangzaib, refuted the claims and sustained “Khan was given a free and fair trial”.

Khan remains most popular leader 

Ironically, the followers of Khan have epitomized him as the hero who would save the sinking Pakistani ship from corrupt and dynastic politics.

Several analysts have concluded similar outcomes of Khan’s political career as seen in the cases of his predecessors, who chose to rally against the Pakistani military and ended up serving time in prison on various charges. “Many of us saw this verdict coming but it still casts a shadow over the upcoming elections,” said Zahid Hussain, a political analyst. The reason is that Khan still remains the most popular leader in Pakistan.

It is a strong possibility that the charges served were intentionally devised, especially when at the time the political parties would be promoting and campaigning for the upcoming elections. It is expected with the arrest and charges placed on Imran Khan, his supporters may also turn to a protest campaign against the PTI’s rivals and the Pakistani military was seen on May 9 of this year.

On May 9, 2023, Khan was arrested at the High Court in Islamabad by the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) on grounds of corruption linked to the Al-Qadir Trust, in which he shares part ownership with his wife, Bushra Bibi. After his arrest, the PTI party called for demonstrations in the country.

The arrest came after the ISPR, the public relations wing of the military, harshly responded to Khan’s accusation of the ISI official being responsible for an attack on Khan’s life. ISPR declared that Khan’s arrest was on legal grounds with all protocol followed. However, the Supreme Court of Pakistan had a contrarian reaction and called for the release of Khan, calling the arrest an “unlawful” move.

Strangely enough, Khan known for his populist politics was initially elected in 2018 with the support of the Pakistani military. Having lost the favor of Pakistan's military’s top brass, it is no wonder that Khan was toppled from his position as the PM, followed by a series of accusations by him about the military’s ploy to assassinate him twice.

Amidst the Khan and Pakistan military rift against the backdrop of the upcoming elections in November, Senator Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, a Balochistan politician, has been named as caretaker premier. He will preside over the interim government and will see the country through to the next election.

Outgoing prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and opposition leader Raja Riaz seemed to have been in joint agreement on the appointment of Kakar. Kakar has served as the spokesperson for the Balochistan government and is known to have intimate ties with the Pakistani military. Hence, his appointment was no surprise. It is understood that the appointment will retain the already present influence of the military in Pakistani politics and its “will” may be directed through the puppet appointee.

Following the appointment of Kakar, several politicians have issued statements in favour of the caretaker premier, including former information minister 
Fawad Chaudhry. Chaudhry said: “Kakar is someone with a keen eye on international politics. He has very strong connections with right quarters.”

On the basis of Pakistan’s constitution, a neutral caretaker government must oversee the national elections, which are required to be held within 90 days of the dissolution of the parliament’s lower house. Given the political 'neutrality' of Kakar, one would wonder as to whose purpose would Kakar serve - the military or the people of the Pakistani nation. Kakar’s party, the Balochistan Awami Party, also maintains a close alliance with the military.

Additional powers for interim PM

The position of the interim prime minister holds crucial political importance at this moment. He is empowered with powers to make policy decisions on economic matters as well. On his outlook on Pakistan's political and economic situation, it is not beyond his powers to delay the present elections.

The move to add the extra economic policy-making responsibility on the interim PM is solely aimed at maintaining a nine-month $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout which Pakistan secured in June. Since one of the three reviews is expected to fall under the caretaker period, it is likely that Pakistan will choose to prioritize it over the elections.

The IMF has already secured an agreement from all political parties over the direction of the policy.
Jamaat-I-Islami senator Senator Mushtaq Ahmed stated that it was unfortunate that the IMF became a strong premise for evaluating electoral laws, which he elaborated as a “soft coup”, which raises questions pertaining to the conduct of the general elections.

The Election Commission has to draw new limitations and boundaries for several federal and provincial constituencies and on that basis will grant dates for elections. The Election Commission will be expected to announce the duration it will require to complete the process, which will possibly involve litigation by candidates over the new contours of the constituencies.

The military without a doubt will continue to clandestinely play a bigger part in Pakistan's politics. It has controlled Pakistan for over three decades since the country's conception and has wielded immense political power. There is general apprehension brewing among the Pakistani people that if the caretaker set-up extends beyond its constitutional tenure, a period without an elected government would endow the military with the power to gain complete control.

Three candidates for PM

At the moment, there are three candidates to lead the government - Khan’s PTI, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) of Shehbaz Sharif and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). It is also expected that PTI may exploit the sentiments of the Pakistani demographic over the arrest of Khan to repeat its 2018 victory.

Logically speaking a détente between the generals and PTI may be the saving grace but it remains unlikely.
While Shehbaz Sharif remains a frontrunner for PML-N, his brother, the former premier Nawaz Sharif, is seeking a return from exile. With the corruption charges still active against Nawaz Sharif, the efforts to return to Pakistan may seem futile.

 In the meantime, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the chairman of the PPP is also presenting himself as a key candidate. After having been seen as snubbed at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) by India’s External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar for bringing up the issue of abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir when he was in India to attend the meeting as foreign minister, it is a wonder if it would be politically expedient for Bhutto  - whose mother and maternal grandfather were prime ministers - to project himself as a viable prime ministerial candidate. 

China will continue to be appeased

It is apparent the Pakistani military is the sole decision-maker for Pakistan and the arbiter of its destiny. The probability of a prolonged interim government under caretaker PM Kakar is a strong possibility during which time the Pakistani military will call the shots through its puppet figure. 

Pakistan requires to maintain its strong relations with China and to do so will be expected to appease the Chinese with collaborative support for the multibillion-dollar CPEC (China Pakistan Economic 
Corridor), which has already commenced its second phase.

As for democracy in Pakistan, the facade will continue to be maintained by the military through its chosen candidate. The duration and the workings of this interim government will not only be the bellwether of Pakistan’s military intentions but will pave the way to a totalitarian regime in the troubled South Asian nation.

(The writer is an Indian research analyst specializing in the AF/Pak region and counter-terrorism. Views are personal. She can be reached at aparnarawal@gmail.com)