One more terror attack and once more India is groping for a response. Military action, which the hawks are baying for, will serve the popular purpose of quenching the thirst for revenge but will have little long-term effect. Anger subsides quickly after retaliatory strikes and soon it becomes business as usual. This is what happened after the Uri and Pulwama attacks.

We should ensure that this time we don’t fritter away our anger in a few hot-headed blows. There should be cool thinking and calculated action to cause lasting harm to Pakistan. Pakistan has been following the low-cost option of inflicting a thousand cuts one India through brain-washed jehadis. Innocent people in India have been bearing the brunt of the Pakistani military’s policy of waging war through terror. It must be paid in its own coin.

The Indian government has downgraded diplomatic relations and cancelled visas. This is symbolic and transitory. More significant is the action on the Indus Waters Treaty, which has been kept in abeyance. But this too is essentially a temporary step. When the treaty gets reactivated, Pakistan will insist on all infrastructure built during this period to be dismantled. The treaty has a robust dispute settlement mechanism and India will have to comply. Abeyance makes sense only if it is a prelude to abrogation.

Terminate partisan treaty 

Pakistan is already crying foul and will launch a diplomatic tirade against India. It will appeal to the World Bank and also perhaps the International Court of Justice. The ICJ does not have jurisdiction in the matter but the World Bank does and India will have to be prepared to face the heat. Fortunately, the emasculation of international organizations, rampant transgressions of international law and the misuse of treaties give India a conducive global environment to go ahead and terminate this partisan treaty.

The Indus Waters Treaty was forced on India by the World Bank whose money it needed to build dams for irrigation in Punjab. The treaty gave India all the water of the three ‘Eastern Rivers’ – Ravi, Beas and Sutlej. The waters of the three ‘Western Rivers’ – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – were given to Pakistan but India was allowed to use some of this water for irrigation and build run-of-the-river dams for hydroelectricity. Strict provisions were incorporated in the treaty to ensure that the dams did not have any storage. Pakistan was given the right to inspect any construction in India and the World Bank made itself the custodian of the treaty.

The division of the water was grossly unequal in the treaty. The Western rivers carry 80 percent of the water and are the main source of water for Ladakh (Indus), Kashmir (Jhelum) and Jammu (Chenab). Their interests were sacrificed, despite protests by them. Pakistan adopted an obstructionist attitude from the beginning. It challenged every Indian project. India amended the design of the Salal dam on the Chenab to accommodate its objections, but in the process the dam suffered due to siltation. 

Later, on Baglihar and Kishanganga projects, India stood firm and Pakistan took them to dispute settlement, where India won both. But Pakistan did not relent and continued to raise disputes on every project. Last year, India proposed a review of the treaty but Pakistan rejected it.

 The abrogation of the Indus treaty, on the other hand, can be done in one stroke, followed by a firm refusal to respond to any diplomatic or judicial proceedings launched by Pakistan. This one act will undo an unfair treaty, augment India’s water resources and parch Pakistan.

The Indus Waters Treaty is quite unique because no other upper riparian has given this kind of share of its water to the lower riparian. In fact, the international convention on sharing river water has been ratified by only 43 countries, despite its vague provisions. Critically for India, China, which is the upper riparian by virtue of its occupation of Tibet, has not done so.

Abrogating the treaty will enable India to complete stalled projects in Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh and plan new ones to meet the growing water needs of the region. This will take time but a beginning must be made immediately.

Remain strong and silent 

It is tempting to draw up a long list of actions for India. The unrest in Balochistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa provinces of Pakistan, for example, need diplomatic support and their controversial accession to Pakistan deserve to be publicised. 

However, it would be best for India to remain strong and silent and not give Pakistan the satisfaction of engaging in a slanging match. The Pakistani regime loves these because it gets a chance to raise its profile, at home and abroad. The abrogation of the Indus treaty, on the other hand, can be done in one stroke, followed by a firm refusal to respond to any diplomatic or judicial proceedings launched by Pakistan. This one act will undo an unfair treaty, augment India’s water resources and parch Pakistan.

(The author is a former Indian ambassador who has headed the Pakistan-Afghanistan division in the Ministry of External Affairs. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at dilipsinha@hotmail.com)