The Government of Pakistan has announced the deadline of 31St March 2025 for the repatriation of Afghan refugees from its soil. Pakistan shares a porous north-western border with Afghanistan. Both countries share religious and cultural heritage. Thus, there existed easy mobility across the border. However, after the 1970s, the migration of migrants from Afghanistan increased due to unstable political conditions. 

According to the UNHCR data, the number of migrants was estimated to be 3 million in 1987-87 during the Soviet occupation in Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of the Soviets in 1992, almost 1.3 million refugees returned to their homes, but they were forced to come back to Pakistan because of the civil war in their country. Pakistan is the largest country to host refugees for over 40 years.

The influx of Afghan refugees continued due to Afghanistan's turbulent history. In 2001, the United States invaded Afghanistan as part of the war on terror to eradicate al-Qaida and the Taliban from its soil. Fast forward to after America’s withdrawal, the Taliban took control of the country in 2021. This takeover led to approximately 800,000 Afghans moving into Pakistan. Years of conflict and turmoil have severely impacted Afghanistan’s infrastructure, economy, politics, and social fabric. The Taliban government is also facing international sanctions.

According to UNHCR data, there are 2.18 million documented refugees in Pakistan. Of this number, 1.3 million refugees hold Proof of Registration (PoR) cards issued by the UNHCR, while 880,000 refugees possess Afghan Citizen’s Cards (ACCs). Pakistani authorities launched the repatriation program for undocumented Afghan refugees in November 2023, known as the Illegal Foreigners Repatriation Plan. In the first phase of repatriation, half a million refugees have been deported. The second phase will start on 31st March, during which 800,000 Afghans with Afghan Citizen Cards are expected to be repatriated. Moreover, Afghans waiting to be resettled in a third country have received an extension until 30th June and for obtaining a visa until September 2025, after which they will be considered illegal migrants.

Shift in Pakistani stance

Initially, Pakistan's policy towards Afghan refugees was driven by idealism, meaning that the country welcomed and supported the refugees for religious, ethical, and cultural reasons. But was it truly idealism? Or was it idealism cloaked in realism lacking a clear roadmap? 

The Pakistani government has been receiving a considerable amount of funds for refugee rehabilitation. However, the current shift in policy regarding refugees arises from an awareness of the ground realities. This recognition largely stemmed from the reduced international funding for refugees and the country's unstable economic and security situation. 

Afghan refugees have caused an estimated loss of $200 billion to Pakistan’s economy over three decades. According to former Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, to eradicate terrorism within Pakistan, Afghan refugees would need to leave. Many others in senior civilian and military leadership supported this notion. Pakistan has coordinated with the Taliban government regarding the security threats emerging from Afghan soil but to no avail.

Pakistan’s inadequate policies toward Afghan refugees from the outset have resulted in the current crisis. In international relations, all states must prioritise their own interests. Realism emphasises that a state’s policies are primarily motivated by the need to protect and prioritise national interests. Because Pakistan has neglected to address the settlement of the Afghan refugee issue in terms of its long-term national interests, it has been suffering the consequences.

Integrated into Pakistani society

The current repatriation policy for refugees has faced international criticism from UNHCR and other humanitarian organisations. In response, the Interior Ministry stated that Pakistan is not a signatory to the Refugee Convention, so they are not obligated to consult with the UNHCR. Other organisations have also called for a dignified repatriation process. The Taliban government has requested a gradual deportation of the refugees due to their inability to rehabilitate large numbers of people.

The Afghan refugee crisis in Pakistan is a complex issue. A situation that has evolved over four decades cannot be resolved in four years. Moreover, the refugees have integrated into Pakistani society not only due to religious and cultural similarities but also because their children, born in Pakistan, have never visited Afghanistan. They know Pakistan as their home. Additionally, the lack of formal legislation regarding refugees by the Pakistani authorities has added further layers of complexity to the situation. Pakistan should have viewed its affairs through the lens of realism. However, the current necessity is to blend Idealism with realism to address the refugee problem.

(The author is a research scholar at Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at tabishmunirkhan@gmail.com ).