The recent geopolitical churn in Asia highlights fast-moving developments that India cannot afford to ignore. The Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defense pact, the U.S. decision to lift exemptions and sanction trade through the Chabahar port, and Donald Trump’s statement on America’s intent to capture Afghanistan’s Bagram airbase together mark shifts in regional dynamics. Broadly, these moves highlight an uncomfortable reality: India’s immediate neighborhood remains the principal arena where external powers seek leverage against it.

Pakistan’s fleeting advantage

History offers a reminder: this is not the first time great powers have rallied behind Pakistan and, time after time, Islamabad has failed them—undermined by weak institutions, endemic corruption, reliance on extremism, and a persistent addiction to terrorism as statecraft. History has a tendency to repeat itself, and so, once again, these powers will eventually turn back to India, recognizing shared interests, developmental synergies, and the promise of long-term stability.

However, the situation does not mean the threat can be dismissed. Pakistan’s temporary sense of empowerment may translate into misadventures targeted at India. The activation of sleeper cells, heightening religious radicalism, attempts to leverage India’s social diversity for unrest, or even sudden political shifts within Pakistan cannot be ruled out. Vigilance and preparedness remain non-negotiable, since an overconfident Pakistan has historically translated into conflict with India, like the way Pakistan miscalculated the nuclear test (May, 1998) and conventional war deterrence against India leading to Kargil war, where India’s conventional superiority prevailed.

At the same time, Pakistan’s domestic fault-lines in Balochistan, Sindh, and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa remain acute. India’s strategy must therefore watch for both outward mischief and internal instability, incorporating them into its effective long-term security calculus.

Radical Diplomatic Engagements

These alarming developments call for pragmatic and prudent—yet at times radical—diplomatic engagements. India must deepen its practice of multi-alignment while safeguarding its strategic autonomy. The reply to these challenges must begin with radical structural reforms of domestic institutions to absorb the shocks and respond with great clarity and confidence.

The framework-bound bureaucracy must be trained to be effective, timely responders, flexible to adapting changes, and efficient in execution. This, along with ‘political will,’ will present India as a reliable and relevant partner in these faster geopolitical developments.

Reviving SAARC, Institutionalizing Regional Stability

These domestic efforts combined with strengthening footholds in the subcontinent and the Indian Ocean is imperative. This requires moving beyond the outdated “Big Brother” label, which was a result of bureaucracy-dominated foreign policy, and now needs to be reframed India as an assertive yet reliable regional leader capable of fostering peace, regional security, connectivity, and shared prosperity.

Reviving SAARC with renewed purpose and simultaneously deepening BIMSTEC engagement can strengthen India’s neighborhood-first policy. Pakistan’s obstructionist role has long hampered SAARC’s effectiveness; therefore, excluding Islamabad from certain deliberations on regional security and development could be one solution but the strategic support it is gaining gives it renewed relevance. Meanwhile, allowing other significant players to assume greater responsibility, motivating them to work towards the region’s collective betterment.

The ongoing confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan underscores how fragile South Asia’s security architecture remains. The absence of a credible regional forum has left space for unilateralism, proxy wars, and external manipulation. Reviving SAARC with a renewed security dialog mandate — even if selectively without Pakistan initially — could help institutionalize regional stability mechanisms. India, as the region’s most stable and capable actor, must take the initiative to promote mediation, conflict prevention, and cooperative economic recovery.

To ensure regional security and a leading presence, a stable and pro-India government in the neighborhood should be the first and foremost priority of India. Like, Bangladesh under a stable government of Sheikh Hasina was strategically balancing India as well as China but never impeded India’s Act East vision, except under some extraordinary conditions, which are bound to occur in diplomacy and resolved through it. Currently, Bangladesh under interim leader Yunus has been recalcitrant towards India in every possible way, from threatening to capture Siliguri to framing itself as the ‘only guardian of the ocean (Bay of Bengal),’ which can possibly hinder India’s interest in the regional stability of growth objective.

From Autonomy to Influence

India lost ground in Bangladesh by reacting to the situation instead of influencing them. PM Modi’s impressive foreign policy stance in the first term—calling for a shift from defensive ‘strategic autonomy’ to aggressive ‘strategic influence’—demands hard decisions in domestic as well as external affairs.

The influential strategy must start with acting prudently on recent developments in Nepal, bringing Bhutan and Sri Lanka into confidence, reassuring Myanmar, pragmatically aligning with Afghanistan, accelerating connectivity with Thailand to ensure Act East policy dynamism, securing the Maldives and other small islands in the Indian Ocean, and bringing China into play with limits in the subcontinent power balance equation vis-à-vis America’s assertive presence.

Vigilance Against Pakistan Adventurism

Yet, no matter how effectively India strengthens its regional partnerships, the enduring challenge of Pakistan and rising Chinese influence cannot be overlooked. Geopolitical churn may reshape alignments, but Islamabad’s propensity for misadventures continues to demand vigilance, alongside engaging in backchannel diplomacy.

The deterrence of denial and punishment is the strategy for Pakistan. Failure in this, if it results in terrorism on Indian soil, will demand a joint military response and may lead to a bigger conflict than Operation Sindoor, bound to engage the US in the scenario if it sustains its presence in the region, and China due to its strategic interest, though the misadventure from the Pakistani side is less likely in the near future but must always be a part of the calculus.

Turning Churn Into Opportunity

Regional turbulence need not only be seen as a threat. Ultimately, India’s strategy must combine resilience at home, leadership in the neighborhood, and firmness against external threats. Only then can New Delhi turn the current churn into an opportunity to anchor stability and prosperity in South Asia—and assert itself as a credible pole in an emerging multipolar order.

(The author is an independent public policy and geopolitical analyst. Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at  ayushsen9672@gmail.com/  linkedin.com/in/ayush-kumar-sen-959a841a0/Twitter: Ayush_KSen)