Oil from Dubai is shipped to the outside world starting from the narrow Strait of Hormuz and then the wider Gulf of Omen and then into the vast Ocean to reach various parts of the world. Under the Presidency of UAE COP28 went through a similar pathway.  It started with a narrow but significant win by operationalizing loss and damage fund, on the very first day. Then the journey went through the wider but troubled waters. UAE’s presidency was severely criticized for not including the words ‘phaseout of fossil fuel’ in the final draft of the agreement. And finally, it embraced the much-acclaimed oceanic success in getting, what is now known as the ‘UAE Consensus’ that included for the first time in the history of COPs included the phrase of ‘transition away from fossil fuel’.

However, for me, the seminal success was in yet another phase included in the final decision. Let me explain: The year 2023 started with the nomination of Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber as President of COP28. He is a senior Minister in the UAE government and Managing Director and Group CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). The influential media questioned the choice of the President who is drenched in fossil fuel. But they conveniently forgot that UAE is only the seventh largest oil-producing country in the world, whereas the fourth largest oil-producing country is Canada and other top-ranking fossil fuel-gas and coal-producing countries hosted COPs including Germany, Poland, India, and South Africa. Some of the presidents of COPs in those countries were intensely engaged in promoting energy from fossil fuels for the benefit of their own countries.

The Communique of G7 held in Hiroshima in May 2023 clearly stated the commitment to accelerate the ‘phase-out of unabated fossil fuels to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050 at the latest in line with the trajectories required to limit global average temperatures to 1.5 °C above preindustrial levels and call on others to join us in taking the same action’. It did admit that the goal of annual mobilization of USD100 billion for developing countries’ mitigation action has not been achieved but it included a commitment to meet that goal.

Modi set the tone

India, which held the presidency of G20 in 2023, invited the UAE to take part in its deliberations as an observer. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, later, explained the G20 declaration from its perspective when he spoke at COP28 on 1st Dec . He in his speech set the tone for negotiations and set the ball rolling for the 12-day conference. Modi had successfully garnered a consensus declaration at the G20 summit that represented 80 per cent of the world’s GDP, 75 per cent of global trade, 70 percent of the global population, and 60% of the planet’s land.

Apart from highlighting the minimal role of the Global South in the root cause of the climate crisis, it is bearing the disproportionate amount of adverse impacts of climate change. Few rich countries in the world, he went on to state,  have indiscriminately destroyed the planet’s nature and today poor countries have to face its consequences in the form of climate change, among others.  Giving India’s specific example, he stated that India’s population is 17 percent of the global population, but its carbon is less than 4 percent of global emissions. G20 declaration, interestingly, did not indicate a ‘phaseout of fossil fuels’ but a ‘phaseout of fossil fuel subsidies’ . The declaration, instead, emphasised achieving emission reduction through country-specific pathways. It did highlight the rapid, deep and sustained reductions in global GHG emissions of 43% by 2030 relative to the 2019 levels and net-zero by ‘around mid-century’.

The complex web of the agenda of COP28 revolved for 12 days around three main pillars - Climate Action, Climate Justice, and Climate Finance. The first-ever global stocktake negotiations were the rock-basis for three pillars. That stocktake was unequivocal in revealing that:

Developed countries will reduce emissions by 25–40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Unfortunately, that was not achieved.

Global Greenhouse Gas emission levels in 2030 are now projected to be only 5.3 per cent lower than in 2019 (as against the required 43 percent reduction as per IPCC’s 6th assessment report) if all Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are fully implemented. Thus, the world is far from meeting the emission goals. The world now needs to triple the capacity of renewable energy and double the energy efficiency of the energy systems.

Developed country Parties did not meet the goal to mobilize USD 100 billion per year by 2020 and then continue it till 2025, in the context of meaningful mitigation actions by developing countries.

Transitioning to carbon neutrality 

The Climate Action that was finally agreed in COP28’s ‘UAE Consensus’ based on conclusions of global stocktake,  was very specific. First, the countries should strive to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by the end of this century  and sustain reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to the 2019 level and reaching net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.’ Secondly, it sets a quantifiable goal of  ‘ Tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030’. Thirdly, it calls for ‘accelerating efforts towards phase down of unabated (ever-rising) coal power, utilizing zero and low carbon energy systems including hydrogen. Fourthly, the countries should accelerate the action in transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly, and equitable manner, in this critical decade, to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.

As regards climate finance, the COP28 agreement, based on global stocktake states that ‘developed country Parties to fully deliver, with urgency, on the USD 100 billion per year goal through to 2025, in the context of meaningful mitigation actions, noting the significant role of public funds, and calls on developed country Parties to further enhance the coordination of their efforts to deliver on the goal’.

Indeed the phrase ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels’ was used for the first time in the COP decisions.  I, however, find the qualifying phrase used for the ‘transition away from fossil fuel’ is well thought out. It is, ‘in a just, orderly and equitable manner’. It signals more evocative and expressive action, that was never seen before in any COP.  Indeed no country can unplug the current energy system before it builds in an orderly manner the new energy ecosystem system, taking care of social and economic considerations. Capacity of the societies, mainly in the developing countries.  need to be built for the transition away from fossil fuels. This qualifying phrase is closely related to climate justice. It ensures that no one is left behind in the transition away from fossil fuels.

The word ‘just transition’ is not just about the historic climate injustice done to developing countries, but it also secures the rights and livelihood of workers working on old energy systems that would change to new systems.  For example, coal workers in coal-dependent developing regions will lack employment opportunities beyond coal when renewable energy gets tripled and energy efficiency is doubled.

The 21st century is projected by technologists and economists as a century that will belong to Asia.  The "Asian Century" also has a demographic advantage that brings youth to the centre of the ‘transition away from fossil fuel’. It is time that socialists also join the climate action to ensure that new energy is not only available and affordable but also accessible through adaptation by societies. COP28 has expressed utmost urgency in transitioning to carbon neutrality or net zero. But for the first time, it has given the message of ‘Just Net Zero’.

(The author is a noted environmentalist, former Director UNEP, and Founder Director, Green TERRE Foundation, Pune, India. Views are personal)