The Saudi Arabia-Pakistan defense pact, with the possibility of Islamabad guaranteeing Riyadh nuclear protection, is fraught with profound implications not just for India and the region but globally as well.

The pact is a two-country NATO-like alliance with the underpinnings that New Delhi ought to be deeply concerned about.

"The agreement states that any aggression against either country shall be considered an aggression against both," a statement from the Pakistani prime minister's office was quoted as saying.

Needs Recalibration

That is where the rub lies for India whose Prime Minister Narendra Modi has over the years cultivated what he believed were special relations with Riyadh and its Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman outside the context of Pakistan. However, now that this comprehensive defense pact has been put in place, Modi’s sanguine view of Saudi Arabia and Salman may require significant recalibration.

Salman and Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif embraced after signing the agreement even as Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, regarded as the country's de facto ruler, looked on.

For now, India’s Ministry of External Affairs has offered an anodyne response. Its spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal pointed to the statement that said, “We have seen reports of the signing of a strategic mutual defense pact between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The Government was aware that this development, which formalizes a long-standing arrangement between the two countries, had been under consideration. We will study the implications of this development for our national security as well as for regional and global stability. The Government remains committed to protecting India’s national interests and ensuring comprehensive national security in all domains.”

The fact that the statement specifically refers to the pact’s security implications for India could mean that New Delhi may step up efforts to secure assurances from Riyadh that it is not expressly aimed at India. After all, Pakistan considers India as its permanent enemy and given the history of frequent wars and conflict like the one that occurred in May this year, the pact’s potential impact in that dynamic cannot be overstated.

Reuters anonymously quoted a senior Saudi official as acknowledging the need to balance relations with Pakistan and India, also a nuclear power.

"Our relationship with India is more robust than it has ever been. We will continue to grow this relationship and seek to contribute to regional peace whichever way we can,” the official said.

Geostrategic Implications

There are those in India who believe that the pact, although a logical outcome of the decades-long relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, may have been primarily prompted by Israel’s recent aggression, including its attack on Qatar.

Saudi Arabia has frequently bankrolled an often-desperate Pakistan, including the latest loan of $3 billion extended in December last year, to fill up its dwindling foreign exchange reserves.

In broader geostrategic terms, the defense pact is also an indicator of growing apprehensions in the Middle East about the United States as a reliable security guarantor any longer. It is also possible that Washington may have at least tacitly approved of the defense pact.

Pakistan is the only Islamic nation with nuclear arms and has long nursed the ambitions of being the protector of the larger Islamic “ummah” (world) on the strength of that. The bastion of Sunni Islam, namely Saudi Arabia and the only Islamic nuclear power, Pakistan, joining hands in such a significant way is unlikely to be lost on Islamabad’s benefactor China.

It is hard to predict how China might see the pact at this stage, especially after it so openly supported Pakistan during its four-day military confrontation with India.

(The writer is a Chicago-based journalist, author and commentator. Views are personal)