It is too early to assess the long-term impact of the Ukraine war but it is certain that it will accelerate global trends visible over the last decade and cumulatively lead to far-reaching changes. Globalization has been reeling from the financial crisis of 2008 and the proliferation of plurilateral trading arrangements. The sweeping unilateral sanctions imposed by the West on Russia will cripple the global trading system as envisaged when the World Trade Organization was set up. 

The Cold War has come back with a vengeance. The world is again being forced to choose between the East and the West. But in this second edition, Russia is without the countries of East Europe which, after World War II, were firmly with the Soviet Union for fear of a German revival. This has been replaced by Russophobia and nearly all countries of the former Soviet bloc have either become members of NATO or are keen to do so. 

Russia’s economy has already slipped from the top 10; the war and sanctions will weaken it further. Its policy of strengthening relations with Germany and France is now a shambles. Russia is primarily an exporter of raw materials, particularly oil and gas, and of military equipment. If Europe, its largest buyer of oil and gas, switches to alternative sources, Russia’s export earnings will fall sharply. As for its arms exports, which go mainly to Asia, the sanctions will impact production because Russia imports several high-tech parts from the West. 

Russian dependence 

The Ukraine war will increase Russia’s dependence on China and despite its technological superiority make it the junior partner in the alliance. 

Both the United States and Russia will now concentrate their diplomatic and military efforts on Europe. This will inevitably diffuse their attention on Asia – for Russia this means Central and East Asia and for the US, the Indo-Pacific. The country in the heart of this region is China. Just when observers were questioning the timing of Xi Jinping’s aggressive policy towards its neighbours, the space around it is being vacated by both the US and Russia. Russia’s endorsement of the principle that a big power has the right to dictate the defence policy of its neighbours is music to Xi Jinping’s ears; Xi has been quick to grab the opportunity to launch his own diplomatic blitzkrieg by sending his Foreign Minister Wang Yi to South Asia. 

Wang Yi’s visit began with his participation as chief guest at the Foreign Ministers’ conference of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Islamabad at the invitation of the “all-weather friend” Pakistan. Pakistan offered him the platform of the 57-member gathering, which includes all five former Soviet republics of Central Asia and the oil-rich countries of the Middle East. Wang pandered to their religious sentiments by declaring that China shares their hope on Kashmir, while Pakistan ensured that the organization steered clear of the persecution of Muslims in China’s Xinjiang province. 

China’s worldview 

In all four countries, Wang Yi held forth on the Chinese characteristics on which the international order should be based. In Pakistan, he said that the two countries should promote true multilateralism and oppose power politics, bullying and unilateral sanctions.  

In Nepal, he said that China will work with it to safeguard the principle of non-interference in internal affairs and basic norms governing international relations, resist unilateralism, oppose power politics and contribute to regional peace and stability. But China opposes Nepal’s decision to accept America’s $ 500 million infrastructural aid and is instigating Nepali Communists to protest against it.  

Wang declared that China will oppose any attempt by others to engage in geopolitical games in Nepal. He then advised all political parties in Nepal to jointly explore a governance model that is conducive to promoting political stability and economic growth. Clearly, China does not consider its own sermons as interference in internal affairs. This applies only to other countries -- read India and the US.   

Wang Yi also paid a short visit to Kabul, where Russia sent its point man for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, to join him. China wants to take charge of the humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan. While the West and India are still debating the extent of their engagement with the Taliban regime, China is taking the lead in rehabilitating Afghanistan and Russia is willing to play second fiddle. 

(The author is a former Indian ambassador. Views are personal)