The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States on January 20, 2025, signals a pivotal moment for global geopolitics. With a renewed “America First” agenda, Trump’s administration is poised to reshape U.S. foreign and economic policies, particularly in Asia. The implications for the Indo-Pacific and South Asia are profound, spanning trade, security, and regional partnerships.

Central to Trump’s Asia policy is his determination to counter China’s growing influence. His administration’s hawkish appointments, such as Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, reflect this focus. Both are staunch critics of Beijing and emphasize the need for stronger U.S. alliances in Asia.

Rubio’s legislative efforts to sanction China for human rights abuses and security threats align with Trump’s vision of curbing Beijing’s dominance. Waltz advocates redirecting U.S. resources to counter China’s assertiveness, reinforcing military modernization and strategic cooperation with allies. This policy stance amplifies U.S. efforts to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific.

However, achieving these objectives requires balancing economic and security priorities. For instance, nations like Japan and South Korea face pressure to increase defense spending and adopt policies aligned with Trump’s strategic goals. Similarly, Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines remain cautious, weighing the benefits of U.S. support against the risks of antagonizing China.

Economic nationalism and Its ripple effects

Trump’s second term will likely intensify his protectionist economic policies. His focus on tariffs, renegotiated trade agreements, and domestic manufacturing aligns with his broader vision of economic nationalism. The administration’s proposed 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and reciprocal trade levies highlight a confrontational stance.

For South Asia, these policies present both challenges and opportunities. Bangladesh, for example, risks significant losses in its ready-made garment (RMG) sector, which relies heavily on exports to the U.S. A 5% tariff increase on Bangladeshi goods could translate into nearly half a billion dollars in annual losses. India, while benefiting from its strategic role in the Indo-Pacific, also faces hurdles as tighter U.S. immigration policies impact remittance flows and student exchanges.

Trump’s approach could reshape global supply chains, encouraging manufacturers to relocate from China to alternative destinations like Vietnam, India, and Thailand. However, competition for foreign direct investment (FDI) remains fierce, with countries like Vietnam outperforming Bangladesh in infrastructure and regulatory efficiency.

Defense and alliance management 

Military modernization and alliance cohesion are critical components of Trump’s Asia strategy. By addressing inefficiencies in defense acquisition, the administration seeks to enhance U.S. military readiness and deter regional threats.

South Korea’s domestic political instability, exemplified by the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, poses a challenge for Washington. Balancing demands for increased defense contributions with support for South Korea’s democratic stability will require diplomatic finesse. Similarly, Japan faces pressure to align its defense policies with Trump’s vision, despite internal political hurdles.

In addition to bilateral ties, Trump’s emphasis on reforming multilateral institutions like the United Nations underscores his goal of strengthening U.S. influence. Proposals to grant permanent Security Council representation to allies such as Japan and Germany aim to dilute the power of adversaries like China and Russia while bolstering democratic alliances.

South Asia: Navigating opportunities and challenges

South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, stands at a crossroads as Trump’s policies reshape regional dynamics. India’s growing prominence within the QUAD strengthens its strategic position, but smaller economies like Bangladesh face vulnerabilities.

Bangladesh’s reliance on low-value-added RMG exports underscores the need for economic diversification. Promising sectors such as Information and Communication Technology(ICT), pharmaceuticals, and agro-processing offer opportunities for growth, but infrastructure deficiencies and regulatory inefficiencies hinder progress. For example, Bangladesh ranks 88th in logistics performance, far behind regional competitors like Vietnam and India.

Moreover, tighter U.S. immigration policies could reduce remittance inflows, a critical income source for South Asia. In 2023, Bangladesh received $2.6 billion in remittances from the U.S., comprising 15% of its total inflows. Proactive measures to strengthen ties with other migration-friendly nations, such as Canada and Australia, are essential to mitigate these risks.

Educational exchanges may also suffer under stricter U.S. visa policies. Over 200,000 South Asian students currently studying in the U.S. could opt for more welcoming destinations like Europe or Canada, further straining bilateral ties. Investing in local educational institutions and fostering international collaborations will be crucial to counterbalance these trends.

Strengthening regional cooperation:

Trump’s policies highlight the importance of regional collaboration to address shared challenges. Bangladesh, for instance, must enhance cooperation through platforms like SAARC and ASEAN to safeguard its economic and strategic interests. Partnerships with nations such as Vietnam and Indonesia could help mitigate vulnerabilities and foster sustainable growth.

South Asia also needs innovative approaches to labor migration, ensuring equitable benefits for both origin and destination countries. Promoting fair migration policies and streamlining regulatory frameworks can enhance economic resilience in the face of global disruptions.

Strategic transparency and public engagement:

A critical aspect of U.S. success in Asia lies in its ability to engage local populations. Public diplomacy efforts, including leveraging media and influencers, can build trust and counter China’s narratives. Transparency about U.S. policies, particularly in countries like Japan where public opinion on U.S. military presence is mixed, is vital for sustaining alliances.

Similarly, proactive communication with South Asian stakeholders can foster a deeper understanding of U.S. actions and their benefits. Engaging regional leaders and communities in dialogue will strengthen partnerships and promote stability.

Opportunities and challenges for Asia

Donald Trump’s second term presents both opportunities and challenges for Asia. By prioritizing military modernization, economic decoupling, and alliance burden-sharing, the administration seeks to secure American interests and counter China’s influence. However, sustaining alliances and fostering regional cooperation will require balancing transactional demands with strategic engagement.

For South Asia, proactive measures are essential to navigate shifts in US policy. Diversifying exports, improving infrastructure, and strengthening regional partnerships are critical to achieving sustainable growth. As the Indo-Pacific adapts to these changes, the ability to balance national priorities with collaborative efforts will determine the region’s future trajectory.

(The author is a political and strategic analyst based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at writetomahossain@gmail.com)