Now South Asia is being seen as the new driver of global economic growth
Pakistan and Sri Lanka are pulling down South Asia’s overall performance.
![Shantanu Mukherjee is on the left and Bangladeshi Hamid Rashid is on the right in the picture (Photo: Arul Louis) Shantanu Mukherjee is on the left and Bangladeshi Hamid Rashid is on the right in the picture (Photo: Arul Louis)](/sites/default/files/styles/home_thumbnails/public/2024-01/11_0.jpg?itok=M6hmDhBN)
South Asia, for long seen as a laggard region with its conflicts, catastrophes and poor governance pulling down global growth, is now being seen as the driver of global economic growth with the Indian economy, the region’s largest, outperforming its peers.
Hamid Rashid, the chief of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch of the United Nations, said that South Asia is the region that “is becoming a major source of growth”.
“In the past, East Asia was the driver of growth, but now we see a little bit of shift towards South Asia [and] South Asia being the driver of growth going forward”, he said at a news conference on Thursday at the release of the UN’s World Economic Situation and Prospects report.
For the South Asia region in which the report includes Iran, last year’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate was estimated to be 5.3 per cent, which is projected go down to 5.2 per cent this year, before rising to 5.7 per cent next year.
In contrast, East Asia’s growth rate, the report estimated, was 4.9 per cent last year, and is projected to fall to 4.6 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.
With a projected growth rate of 6.2 per cent for this year, “Indian economy outperformed its peers” – the world’s major economies – Rashid said.
The report put India’s gross domestic product growth in 2023 at 6.3 per cent, 0.5 per cent above the projection made in September, and projected it to be 6.2 per cent this year, 0.5 per cent less than the previous estimate.
Next year, India’s growth is expected to rise to 6.6 per cent, the report said.
The report said, “In Bangladesh, real GDP growth is expected to slow in 2024, whereas economic growth in Nepal is projected to improve. The outlook is still fragile for other countries in the region. In Sri Lanka and Pakistan, modest economic growth is expected”.
The report put Bangladesh’s growth last year at 6 per cent and said it will fall to 5.6 per cent this year and rise to 5.8 per cent next year.
Tiny Maldives with a population of only 521.000, was the region’s top performer clocking a growth of 7.6 per cent, according to the report, which will be 6.8 per cent this year and 7.1 per cent the next.
Nepal had an estimated growth of 1.9 last year, which is expected to increase to 4.5 per cent this year and 5 per cent next year.
Pakistan and Sri Lanka are pulling down South Asia’s overall performance.
Pakistan’s growth last year was 1.7 per cent, the report estimated, and it was expected to rise to 2 per cent this year and 2.4 per cent the next.
Sri Lanka, meanwhile, was estimated to have had a negative growth – minus 3.6 per cent – last year, according to the report, which expected it to rise to1.5 per cent this year and 3.1 next year.
India’s growth pattern, the report said, will be “mainly supported by resilient private consumption and strong public investment”.
The report said that global economic growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 per cent last year to 2.4 per cent this year.
The report expected the United States growth to moderate to 1.3 per cent this year from the 1.6 per cent last year before picking up to 1.7 per cent next year.
The European Union, where the growth for last year was estimated to be a dismal 0.5 per cent last, according to the report, is expected to increase to 1.2 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent next year.
China’s growth rate is expected to come down to 4.7 per cent from last year’s 5.3 per cent and further fall to 4.5 next year, it said.
Shantanu Mukherjee, the director of the United Nations Economic Analysis and Policy Division, indicated that India was likely performing at its best without danger of its economy overheating.
Asked about factors holding India back from a faster growth, Shantanu Mukherjee said amid laughter, “I am not sure that 7.7 per cent, 6.3 per cent, 6.2 per cent and 6.6 per cent is exactly holding something back”.
“So in fact, I think one would, in a kind of abstract sense one would run the risk of overheating economy. If you grew at much faster rates of the size and complexity of India”, he said.
Commenting on Indian economy’s strong growth, Rashid said that although inflation was relatively high, unlike many other countries New Delhi “didn't have to raise rates as much and inflation has come down quite, quite a bit”.
“That has allowed government to sustain the fiscal support that it needed”, he said, and “we didn't see a significant fiscal adjustments or fiscal sort of retrenchment in India. In practice, the support is still pretty strong”.
Mukherjee added, “The government has also recently modernised, modified its tax collection systems and those have also certainly helped and given a more sort of stable playing field for businesses and other initiatives for progress”.
“One of the reasons that the consumer price index in India remained relatively, you know, within bounds allowing this the central bank to not raise interest rates too much was that food prices and fuel prices remained relatively stable”, he said.
Listing risk factors, the report that South Asia “is highly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, the return of the El Niño climate phenomenon will also pose a significant risk to the economic outlook”.
There is a consensus among other international institutions around the 6.3 per cent mark for India’s growth rate in the current fiscal year.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank in October and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in September projected India’s growth rate for the 2023-24 fiscal year to be 6.3 per cent.
For the next fiscal year, ADB forecasts 6.7 per cent growth for India, while the IMF kept it at 6.3 per cent and the World Bank projected 6.4 per cent.
to return once again since I book marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may
you be rich and continue to help other people.
To use these merchandise, you need to use the Best Cleanser For Pigmentation.
You have touched some fastidious factors here. Any way keep up wrinting.
They're very convincing and will certainly work.
Nonetheless, the posts are very short for beginners.
May you please lengthen them a little from next time?
Thanks for the post.
Its very well written; I love what youve got to say.
But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could
connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot
of text for only having 1 or 2 pictures. Maybe you
could space it out better?
well written article. I'll be sure to bookmark it and come back to read
more of your useful information. Thanks for the post. I'll definitely return.
who to ask.
I really like what you have acquired here, certainly like what you
are stating and the way in which you say it. You make
it enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it smart.
I cant wait to read far more from you. This is really a wonderful web site.
and thought I might check things out. I like what
I see so i am just following you. Look forward to going over your web page repeatedly.
a lot more well-liked than you might be now. You are very intelligent.
You know therefore significantly in relation to
this subject, produced me in my opinion believe it from so many numerous angles.
Its like women and men don't seem to be interested unless it is something to accomplish with Lady gaga!
Your individual stuffs excellent. Always take care of it up!
my new iphone 4! Just wanted to say I love reading through your blog and look forward to all
your posts! Carry on the fantastic work!
I saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be
rich and continue to help other people.
You have touched some pleasant points here. Any way keep
up wrinting.
Thank you for providing these details.
this paragraph.
this fantastic piece of writing to increase my experience.
am genuinely enjoying by these.
i enjoy to find out more and more.
useful info with us. Please keep us up to date like this.
Thanks for sharing.
on TV, so I only use the web for that reason, and take the most up-to-date information.
I'm surprised why this twist of fate did not happened
in advance! I bookmarked it.
really found you by accident, while I was looking on Google for something else,
Nonetheless I am here now and would just like to say many thanks for a incredible post and a all round entertaining blog (I also love the
theme/design), I don't have time to read through
it all at the minute but I have saved it
and also included your RSS feeds, so when I have time I
will be back to read a great deal more, Please do keep up the great
job.
got here on this post. I'll be returning to your web site for more soon.
much about this, like you wrote the guide in it or something.
I think that you just can do with a few percent to power the message home
a little bit, but other than that, this is wonderful blog.
A great read. I will definitely be back.
post on building up new web site.
I'll bookmark your blog and check again here frequently.
I am moderately sure I will be told lots of new stuff right
right here! Good luck for the next!
and i was just curious if you get a lot of spam feedback?
If so how do you stop it, any plugin or anything you can recommend?
I get so much lately it's driving me mad so any support
is very much appreciated.
do it please help.
any interesting article like yours. It is
pretty worth enough for me. In my opinion, if all web owners and bloggers made good content
as you did, the web will be much more useful
than ever before.
This is the very first time I frequented your website page and so
far? I surprised with the research you made to create this particular post amazing.
Wonderful process!
and personally recommend to my friends. I'm sure they will
be benefited from this website.
why i have read it fully
Simple but very precise info… Thank you for sharing this one.
A must read post!
is really a nice piece of writing, keep it up.
It was really informative. Your site is useful. Thank you for sharing!
site and in accession capital to claim that I acquire in fact loved account your blog posts.
Anyway I will be subscribing in your augment and even I achievement
you get admission to persistently quickly.
you can write or else it is difficult to write.
except this website presents feature based content.
your info, however good topic. I must spend a while finding out more or working out
more. Thanks for fantastic info I used to be looking for this information for my mission.
I'll be returning to your website for more soon.
the new visitors of blogging, that genuinely how to do running
a blog.
am visiting this web page dailly and take good information from here everyday.
Grrrr... well I'm not writing all that over again. Anyways, just wanted to say fantastic blog!
that would be ok. I'm undoubtedly enjoying your blog and look
forward to new posts.
really enjoy reading your articles. Can you suggest any
other blogs/websites/forums that deal with the same subjects?
Thanks for your time!
Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest authoring a blog article or vice-versa?
My website goes over a lot of the same subjects as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each
other. If you might be interested feel free to shoot me an e-mail.
I look forward to hearing from you! Awesome blog by the
way!
Post a Comment