The emerging framework is likely to be more complex and less centralised. It may involve a mix of external partnerships, regional cooperation, and internal capacity building. It will also require a different mindset, one that accepts uncertainty as a constant factor.

The most urgent and vital issue is the future management of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway supports a large part of the world’s energy supply. For many years, its security relied on Western naval dominance. That belief has now been challenged.Iran has demonstrated it can disrupt, threaten, and influence traffic…