It is tough to predict, just like other countries of the world, what will be the economy of Bangladesh post-COVID-19 as it is still uncertain to know for how long the virus will persist in the world. Besides, some scientists forecast that the second wave of coronavirus will hit the world, and this clearly indicates that the world will have to continue with the virus for a long time. In the meantime, some South Asian countries have eased restrictions while enforcing some limitations and taking more safety measures to re-start the economy.

What will be the fate of Bangladesh? It is for certain that a new start has to be initiated from mid-June. At the moment, the virus is at its peak in Bangladesh, and experts are predicting it will further rise in mid-May and may start showing a decline by mid-June. So normal life can only resume by mid-June with new restrictions and more safety measures.

But by the time Bangladesh resumes its normal life, both industrial and service sectors will be badly affected. In Bangladesh, one of the main industries, the garment industry, is already suffering a lot as the sector has lost its orders from the main buyers, mostly Western fashion brands.  When it re-starts its operations fully, it will not be so smooth, as there will be cases of workers falling ill due to the virus, thus hampering work.

At the same time,  Western countries are likely to resume work and business by enforcing new safety measures and their market will be partially ready to showcase autumn and winter collections. Christmas always brings cheers to Bangladesh garment industries. This time too it is hoped that Christmas and New Year will lift the gloom.  It means Bangladesh has to be ready to supply the autumn and winter collections. The scenario is the same in the shoe and leather goods sectors.

On the other hand, the pharmaceutical sector, which had grown tremendously over the past few decades has not been so badly hit as drugs and medicines produced locally still, have the market. According to Dr. Atiur Rahman, the former governor of Bangladesh Central Bank, the industrial sector will lose 30 percent due to the virus.

It is clear that the Bangladesh government has to invest more in the service sector where a large number of people are employed and as they will avail more social security schemes. Moreover, the government has to provide more stimulus package for the lower middle class for at least six months to one year. 

Along with this, Bangladesh has a permanent burden of the Rohingya refugees. After the pandemic, it is unlikely that Bangladesh will continue to get funds from the West, especially the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for the Rohingya refugees as the virus by then will ruin many poor and disorganized countries’ economy like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and some African countries. These countries will then need attention as otherwise hordes of refugees will leave for Australia, Canada, and European countries for a better life.

With such a changed world scenario, the focus of UNHR will naturally be diverted to such virus-ravaged nations and they will be disbursing funds to them. In such a situation there is a possibility that they will cut aid for the Rohingya refugees.

Despite these dark predictions, the main light in Bangladesh's economy is agriculture that is the largest employment sector. The government of Bangladesh has been highly successful in boosting the rural and agro-economy even during COVID-19. This year government has given more emphasis to this sector. Besides, two or three crops like Boro rice, potato, and corn, which have been harvested from February to May, resulted in bumper production. Apart from giving importance to agriculture, the government has taken several measures, including providing financial help to the livestock and fisheries sectors too.

Corona pandemic has already changed the world economic structure. Now, most countries will invest more in the health and education sector. Not only the government, but many private entrepreneurs will invest in health and education sectors. Simultaneously, world monetary organizations will allocate more funds for these sectors. Bangladesh has already got some commitments from Asian Development Bank (ADB) and other financial institutions. This will help the economy, and add more value to the GDP. 

Another main source of income to Bangladeshi economy is foreign remittances. After readymade garments (RMG), remittance inflows are the second-highest foreign currency earnings for the Bangladeshi economies. The pandemic has squeezed the job market all over the world. Despite the virus, most of the overseas labourers of Bangladesh will continue their jobs like during the 2009 recession, as most of them are utility labourers, needed at all times. Therefore, Bangladesh, which was the third-highest recipient of remittance in South Asia in 2018, after India and Pakistan and 11th highest recipient globally, is unlikely to get hugely impacted. 

It is clear that in the next fiscal year Bangladesh will get 3 percent of the GDP from the agriculture sector, while the industrial sector will lose 30 percent. The service sector will lose 50 percent, but overseas remittances will continue its flow like the previous years. Besides, Bangladesh will be able to sustain and maintain its domestic market after the lockdown because it is home to 170 million people. 

Moreover, the Bangladesh government has given an incentive of BDT 800 billion to various sectors to cope with the financial strain of the virus. It will increase BDT 1000 billion and more in the coming months. Besides, the Bangladesh government has eased the burden of bank loans for small industries and vendors, which is a big stimulation for the economy. Given this context, we can conclude that having 3 percent from the agriculture sector, Bangladesh will get another 2.50 percent to 3 percent from other industrial, infrastructure, and other sectors, thus helping the economy. This clearly shows that Bangladesh’s economy will not nosedive due to the corona pandemic; rather, it will continue in a stable position with 5.50 percent or 6 percent GDP growth. 

(The writer is a Dhaka-based editor. He can be contacted at swadeshroy@gmail.com)