Transnational terrorist organizations like al-Qaeda and ISIS might be able to regroup in Afghanistan in two years, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin warned, adding the groups could pose a medium-level threat to the US. 

The remark came during a Senate hearing on Thursday at a time when the concern is growing about potential future threats amid the withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan. 

When asked about the level of threat posed by these groups, Austin said, “I would assess it as a medium....I would also say, senator, that it would take possibly two years for them to develop that capability.”

General Mark Milley, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who was also present there, expressed similar threat perception. 

“I think that if certain other things happen — if there was a collapse of the government or the dissolution of the Afghan security forces — that risk would obviously increase, but right now I would say ‘medium’ and about two years or so,” Milley was quoted as saying by Associated Press. 

However, he downplayed the possibility of the collapse of the Afghan government like the fall of the South Vietnamese government in 1975. 

“I may be wrong — who knows, you can´t predict the future — but I don´t see Saigon 1975 in Afghanistan,” Milley said.“The Taliban just isn’t the North Vietnamese Army. It´s not that kind of situation.”

The fear of the emergency of al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups is real. A recent report by the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team of the UN stated that the Taliban hasn’t cut off its ties with Al-Qaeda, and in fact cemented its ties as several top leaders are now bonded by marriage relations. 

Furthermore, the report claims that al-Qaeda has deliberately been keeping itself low profile in Afghanistan so that the Taliban doesn’t feel uncomfortable diplomatically. Some of the leaders of the group have also been shifted to other safer and remote locations--away from the fighting zones--to avoid exposure of their link. 

There is also growing apprehension about the US’ ability to collect and monitor intelligence about terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan once they cease their presence in the country. 

Reports suggest US officials have hit a dead end negotiating military bases in Pakistan for its counter-terrorism operations in Afghanistan, and time is running out. Other options like Central Asian countries could prove equally tough as Russia has said that US bases in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are “unacceptable”.  

(SAM)