The speculation of a possible military coup has been ripe in Myanmar with the opening of its newly elected Lower House of Parliament scheduled on February 1. The military, which later declared, via its own television channel, a one-year state of emergency after detaining de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other senior members of her governing party, had demanded certification that the general elections held in November 2020 were free and fair. According to the military, the general elections were full of irregularities and therefore invalid. 

A military spokesman said that the army had found 8.6 million irregularities in 314 areas across all states and regions and that this indicated the possibility that people had voted more than once, or had engaged in some other voting malpractice. However, the United Elections Commission (UEC) has said it found no evidence of any voting malpractice or fraud. The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Suu Kyi, had won a landslide victory in the general election.

The media has reported that Myanmar’s commander-in-chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who the military said has been handed over power later, told officers at the National Defense College via videoconference that the 2008 constitution is effective and each section has a purpose and meaning; no one should take it upon themselves to interpret it as they please; the military needs to abide by the constitution which is the mother of the law; applying the law based on one’s own ideas may cause harm rather than being effective; and all existing laws will be respected that are not beyond the 2008 constitution, but if one does not follow the law, such a law must be revoked. He also spoke about how the military had revoked two previous constitutions in Myanmar.

The Myanmar military had drafted the 2008 constitution and put it to a referendum in April that year. The NLD had boycotted 2008 the referendum, as well as the 2010 elections, run in accordance with the constitution. Under the 2008 constitution, 25 percent of seats in both Houses of Parliament are reserved for the military, to which it appoints serving military officials. Political parties aligned with the military also provide support to the military.

However, the sweeping victory of the NLD in the November 2020 general elections have reduced the share of politicians who support the military in both houses of the new parliament.

Following the above development, multiple diplomatic missions in Myanmar including Australia, Canada, EU, UK, the US, Norway and New Zealand issued a statement saying, “We affirm our support for Myanmar’s democratic transition and efforts to promote peace, human rights, and development in the country. We look forward to the peaceful convening of the Parliament on February 1 and the election of the President and speakers… we congratulate the people of Myanmar on their historic participation in the country’s recent general election. We urge the military, and all other parties in the country, to adhere to democratic norms, and we oppose any attempt to alter the outcome of the elections or impede Myanmar’s democratic transition…”. 

China and India were not signatories to this statement. 

The politico-military confrontation may be viewed as the military’s bid to retain power over Myanmar. On the other hand, the military is aware that China has been supporting and arming terrorists and insurgents in Myanmar to pressure the country the way Beijing wants. In fact, the army chief had mentioned this on an earlier occasion without naming China specifically. 

More importantly, the Myanmar army may not be comfortable with the manner in which the NLD has given in to China for the China-Myanmar-Economic Corridor (CMEC), which is an invitation for the People’s Liberation Army to establish in Myanmar, like Pakistan, including the posting of Chinese marines at Kyaukphyu port in Myanmar, just like in Gwadar of Pakistan.

That is what the Chinese Communist Party wants and was perhaps foreseen by the Myanmar army. The question is did the NLD not see this threat beyond the charm of economic progress with the CMEC, despite the problems in Pakistan with the CPEC (China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)?  These could be the reasons behind the military coup in Myanmar.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. The views are personal)