Permutation and combination game in Nepal to oust PM Oli

With Nepal's ruling party rivalries blowing up into a full-blown political crisis, drawing the attention and concern of two powerful neighbours, India and China, the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) faction led by Nepal PM K P Sharma Oli's rivals, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Nepal, both former prime ministers, is exploring the possibility of forging alliances with the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) and the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal (JSP-N), The Himalayan Times said

Dec 31, 2020
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With Nepal's ruling party rivalries blowing up into a full-blown political crisis, drawing the attention and concern of two powerful neighbours, India and China, the Nepal Communist Party (NCP) faction led by Nepal PM K P Sharma Oli's rivals, Pushpa Kamal Dahal and Madhav Nepal, both former prime ministers, is exploring the possibility of forging alliances with the opposition Nepali Congress (NC) and the Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal (JSP-N), The Himalayan Times said.   

However, both the opposition parties are wary of joining hands with the Dahal-led NCP faction. Interestingly, Dahal and Madhav Nepal have postponed the meeting of the party's standing committee to hold talks with leaders of the non-communist parties.  

Narayan Kaji Shreshtha, a spokesperson of NCP, said that discussions will be held with the parties who had called the dissolution of the lower house "unconstitutional and undemocratic."

However, NC seems to be in no rush to join hands with them. "The HoR dissolution is unconstitutional and undemocratic and we will protest against it on our own," said Prakash Sharan Mahat, joint general secretary of Nepal Congress. 

He seemed distrustful of Dahal's intention. The Dahal faction, he believes, would again join Oli the day it serves its interests. Mahat however added even if they don't join hands with them, they will help create momentum in favour of democracy, and that would ultimately serve the public interests. 

Similarly, Rajendra Mahto, leader of the JSP-N also ruled out any possibility of joining hands with them. He recalled how the same people brutally crushed the Madhesi protests when they stood up against newly floated changes in the constitution.

Addressing a rally of his supporters on Wednesday, Prime Minister Oli compared his rival Dahal with Dhratrastra of the Mahabharat. Communists quoting the Hindu epic to corner their rivals is just another day in Nepal's politics, commented a journalist watching the development. 

Oli's decision to dissolve the House hasn't gone down well with nearly all political parties in the country. Parties have been holding protest rallies across the country, calling the decision "unconstitutional" and "undemocratic." Around 22 petitions have been filed in the Supreme Court, challenging the legal validity of the decision.  

Oli and Dahal have been at the loggerhead for months. The latter had been seeking Oli’s resignation from the prime ministerial post for months. The crisis between the two factions peaked on 20 December, when Oli recommended the dissolution of the lower house.

President Bidhya Devi Bhandari approved the recommendation within hours on the same day. With the house dissolution, the crisis between the two leaders pushed the Nepal Communist Party on the verge of a vertical split.

Seven ministers, loyal to Dahal, resigned from the government protesting the Oli’s decision. Just two days after the dissolution, on 22 November, the Central Committee led by the Dahal faction removed Oli from the post of chairman. The committee also recommended disciplinary actions against  Oli.

At the same meeting, Madhav Nepal, another Oli's rival, was chosen as the second chairman of the party. Since then, two factions have been holding their separate party meetings, and even expelling leaders loyal to others from party and government positions in different provinces.

Last week, China rushed a high-level vice-minister to assess the situation in the country and to possibly find a political compromise to avoid a split in the party. The Chinese minister held separate meetings with Nepal's President, Oli, and Dahal during his visit Interestingly, it was China who had played an instrumental role in the unification of different Communist parties of the country in 2017. 

China is increasingly worried about the infighting in the Nepali Communist party. Over years, Beijing made significant inroads in the Himalayan nation in the guise of Communist fraternity. Three years on, the rivalry between the two strongmen of Nepali politics is threatening Beijing's effort to keep the Communist Party in power.

In the coming days, a lot will depend on how the Supreme Court delivers its judgments on petitions challenging the dissolution. How the non-communist opposition parties decide to play their balls with different communist factions will, too, have a major bearing on the future political scenario of the countries.

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