The Covishield (developed in the UK by Oxford Astra Zeneca) vaccine is 62 percent effective if both the full doses are given four weeks apart and 90 percent effective if the half dose is followed by the full dose. The half-dose/full dose regimen was not studied in people over the age of 55.

A vaccine that is more than 50 percent effective would have been indeed great news but now both Pfizer and Moderna scoring in the mid-90s and the Russian vaccine allegedly scoring in the low 90s, have spoilt us.

There is breaking news, which, inexplicably, is not breaking news in India. That news, if acted upon expeditiously, will allow an average Indian to have its cake, give it to someone else and eat it too.

The United Kingdom is delaying the second dose of the vaccine by 84 days. They are doing it to give it to as many people, at least to give partial protection, as early as possible. They have three vaccines - Pfizer, Moderna, and Oxford (which is called Covishield in India). Delaying the second dose of Moderna and Pfizer has no scientific justification whatsoever but Oxford (Covishield) is another story.

It turns out based on data published (not peer-reviewed) that if the second dose is delayed by three months (instead of the current four weeks), the first dose itself gives a whopping 76 percent protection (14 percent more than what would be obtained by taking both the doses), after first three weeks. That’s great news. It is not speculation.  The data is out.  And the 76 percent protection lasts at least three months.

Postpone second dose 

India, after having its own scientists verify the data (the Oxford data is not yet peer-reviewed), can immediately postpone the second dose for all the people who have gotten the first dose. It will make the logistics very easy. Then roll the vaccine out, with suddenly doubled doses, and try and get as much section of population covered as possible, to a very robust 76 percent. 

By the end of April, when the time for the second dose will come, Covaxin, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax will also be available to try and reach the entire population. The extended rollout can happen in a day or two. 

The only downside and a serious one is, with the single dose, there is a possibility of spread of asymptomatic Covid in a small percentage. Still, there is about 67 percent protection against getting any form of Covid (symptomatic or not) with just the first dose.

When vaccines like Pfizer, Moderna, Oxford (Covishield) were studied, the mutated variants were not factored in because they were not around then. The only replicating viruses can mutate. The larger the swathe of population covered, the more successful it will be in blunting the spread of new variants.

Opportunity for India 

The pandemic is almost over in India. But almost is the operative word. Herd immunity coupled with our acquired immunity due to multiple infections is likely protecting us. Likely this will last for a while, likely it will work against the mutations, but can we take the chance? The small risk afforded by the Covishield vaccine is still less than the consequences of a new wave hitting us with all that it entails, lockdowns, restrictions, and a sense of despair, having won and then lost. Fate is providing India with an opportunity. It won’t knock twice. But it can knock out this pandemic.

This data needs to be reviewed by our governing body and soon. If there was ever a need to demonstrate that India’s resilient bureaucracy can gallop, the moment is upon us and we cannot be found wanting

Let us roll our sleeves, literally.

(The writer is a Pittsburgh-based physician and filmmaker. The views are personal)