As Maldives goes into its fourth presidential election in September this year, the evolving political landscape is becoming increasingly complex. Recent developments have brought surprises that could potentially affect the election outcome and the country’s political future. So far, the incumbent president, Ibrahim Solih, was in a strong position, as his rival Abdulla Yameen, leader of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) remained disqualified. However, former President Mohammed Nasheed has decided to enter the race after quitting the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and floating a new party named Democrats, hoping to stitch an opposition alliance to back a joint candidate against the re-election bid of Ibrahim Solih.  

Factions within the ruling party

During the upcoming elections, the MDP will be campaigning without its founder and most prominent member, Mohammed Nasheed, who quit the party after a series of disagreements with President Ibrahim Solih. The split may have significant consequences for Solih, who is seeking re-election for a second term.

Tension between Nasheed and Solih has been ongoing since Solih’s victory in the 2018 presidential elections. Since coming to office, Solih’s ability to keep the coalition together and establish his authority within the party has caused political anxieties for Nasheed, who fears his political control slipping away. His attempts to regain political control have resulted in internal conflicts and factionalism.

Over time, Nasheed publicly voiced his criticism of the government's corruption and lack of action against the militant groups. He eventually severed ties with the Solih administration after they refused to support the hate speech legislation introduced by him. The disagreements became more pronounced when Solih rejected Nasheed’s proposal to change the political system from presidential to parliamentary and his interest in the post of prime minister. These internal rifts have also been evident in the bitterly contested MDP internal elections and the parliament’s operation, with Nasheed’s faction voting against government bills.

In his last attempt to regain control, Nasheed contested the MDP presidential primaries against Solih with the aim of "taking back control" and "ideological revival". Despite losing the primaries, Nasheed refused to back Solih as the presidential candidate and began exploring options with the opposition while remaining in the party. Infuriated by his stance, Solih’s faction filed a no-confidence motion against Nasheed and Deputy Speaker Eva Abdulla. As divisions grew, the power struggle reached its climax with Nasheed and his followers resigning and establishing a new party named Democrats. With the Election Commission registering the party, the Democrats have become the largest opposition party in the parliament with 15 MPs.

Where the opposition stands

Following his resignation from the MDP and forming a new party, Nasheed is uniting the opposition to support a joint candidate against Ibrahim Solih. Qasim Ibrahim of the Jumhoore Party (JP) and Col. Nazin of the Maldivian National Party (MNP) have allied with the Democrats. However, the success of opposition unity depends on the participation of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM)–People’s National Congress (PNC) coalition, which secured 42 per cent of the total votes in the previous elections. The importance of Yameen in achieving opposition unity has led Nasheed to work with his bête noir and even speak out against his imprisonment. Both sides have begun cooperating on common issues in the parliament against the ruling MDP government. Recently, they opposed the government’s decision to acknowledge Mauritius’s sovereignty over the Chagos Island. However, the question remains, can such arrangements lead to an all-opposition alliance?

The PPM’s presidential candidate, Abdulla Yameen, is currently serving a jail term for money laundering and corruption charges, which disqualifies him from running in the elections. PPM has refused to announce any alternative candidate hoping to get an acquittal from the high court. However, there is a newfound optimism within the party, as the Election Commission’s president has suggested that Yameen’s eligibility is subject to legal interpretation. As Yameen’s future remains uncertain, PPM is yet to devise a strategy for the elections, whether to field an alternative candidate, wait for Yameen’s appeal, or support a joint candidate, as proposed by Mohammed Nasheed.

Nasheed’s courting of Yameen is based on electoral arithmetic to avoid vote splitting and consolidating all anti-Solih votes. Previous presidential elections have shown that it is impossible to reach a 50 per cent mark without the support of coalition parties. Solih won the last elections with 58 per cent votes, thanks to the support of three parties: Qasim Ibrahim’s Jumhoore Party (JP), Adalaath Party and Gayoom’s faction within the PPM. However, with the MDP splitting and JP siding with Nasheed’s faction, Solih will be worried about his re-election prospects. 

Qasim Ibrahim of the Jumhoore Party (JP) has a significant vote base. He received 16 per cent and 25 per cent votes, in the 2008 and 2013 presidential elections, respectively. During the runoff elections, he supported Nasheed and Yameen, both of whom won their respective elections. In 2018, he supported the joint opposition candidate Solih, who went on to win the elections.

India. China factors

Although the ruling camp is facing challenges, the opposition also needs a lot of work to unite around a joint candidate. To everyone’s surprise, Nasheed, whose estrangement from the MDP was due to his aspiration for the highest office, has refused to run for president and Democrats have announced Ilays Labeeb as their presidential candidate. While opposition parties are still discussing the possibilities of a joint candidate, Maldives Reform Movement (MRM) led by former dictator Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, has also announced primaries for choosing their candidate, signalling that they will run elections independently.

The success of Nasheed’s project for a joint candidate rests on bringing the PPM-PNC coalition into their fold. Given their differing views of domestic issues and foreign policy, the alliance, if formed, will have a hard time coming to a common programme. Nasheed prefers a liberal, decentralized governance system and is considering transforming Maldives into a parliamentary system. Meanwhile, Yameen’s tenure was characterized by authoritarianism, a lack of political autonomy and increased religious symbolism. On matters of foreign policy too, Nasheed is critical of China and favors the ‘India first’ policy, while Yameen has had positive relations with China and his party has recently protested against the Indian military presence in Maldives under the slogan ‘India Out’.

 Looking from the PPM-PNC coalition perspective, the formation of Democrats means splitting of votes polled by MDP in the last elections. This could prompt Yameen to run independently rather than in coalition with Nasheed. In addition, his wish to secure the top position could run in conflict with Nasheed’s. As a result, the first round of voting will likely feature multiple candidates vying for the top spot, with fierce competition expected between the MDP, Democrats and PPM.

As the election heads toward the second round, one can expect some unexpected alliances. Given the differences between political parties on the issues of political structure and foreign policy, it will be interesting to see who teams up with whom, as it would likely have a major impact on the country's political future and regional geopolitics.

(The author is a Ph.D. Scholar, Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi. Views are personal. He can be contacted at realrishabh@gmail.com)