India’s ties with the Gulf countries that have been robust in the past have come under strain owing to a number of factors. A defining hallmark of the Narendra Modi government’s diplomatic outreach to the West Asian countries, particularly the Gulf countries, have been the personal investment of the prime minister in nurturing robust relationships with the heads of these countries. This has resulted in the full flow of trade, investment, and cultural exchange, thus bolstering India’s reputation in the Gulf kingdoms. 

India-Gulf ties have, however, recently come under strain in the past weeks owing to a number of issues: one is the persistent Islamophobia in India and the second is the pressing economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic fallout

After the second wave of migration of Indian nationals to the West Asian countries during the 1970s, the Gulf kingdoms have acquired a special strategic significance in New Delhi’s diplomacy. The economic aspect of the Indo-Gulf relationship is perhaps the most important dimension. Historically India had to import oil, petroleum, and natural gas due to the low reserves. In this context, the Gulf countries have played a crucial role in ensuring the seamless supply of fossil fuel-based sources of energy in the toughest of times. India imports over 80 percent of its oil and 43 percent of its natural gas requirements from abroad, in which the Gulf countries account for the lion’s share. Saudi Arabia, UAE,  Qatar, etc., are the leading players in this context.

Besides, India-Gulf multilateral trade ties have been robust. During the fiscal year 2018-2019, the two-way trade stood over $160 billion. But the COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to disrupt these economic ties. The pandemic has wreaked havoc on the Gulf economies. According to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global oil demand is likely to tank by 29 million tones and this after the OPEC+ (Russia, Iran) and other overseas partners agreed to a historic accord of cutting oil production by a record 9.3 million BPD (barrels per day) - which accounted for almost 10 percent of the global demand - that has come as a major blow to the economies. 

With oil constituting the lifeline of many of the West Asian countries, they have been hit hard. Further with the fear of contracting the infection as a result of the highly contagious nature of the coronavirus, the Gulf countries have announced national lockdowns and strict social distancing measures, and this has brought economic activity to a grinding halt. 

The hardest hit is the blue-collar workers. What is of major concern for India is the mass layoffs of Indian expatriates who constitute a major chunk of the workforce. Over eight million Indian expatriates work in the Gulf region and send back private remittances worth $40 billion which forms a vital source of India’s foreign exchange. One such example is of the layoffs of Indian workers, notably in Oman, where the order had come to government-owned companies to replace expat workers “as quickly as possible” with Omanis. However, the Ministry of External Affairs clarified that the move did not impact much of Indians living there. The mass layoffs coupled with the evacuation of Indian nationals stranded in the Gulf countries could severely impact India’s economic and strategic stakes in the Gulf countries.

Islamophobia - widening the schism

As if the economic strain wasn’t enough, the growing Islamophobia in India and among Indian expatriates has only damaged India’s credibility amongst its Islamic friends. Numerous reports came out of Indian nationals indulging in hate-mongering so much that the Indian Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Pavan Kapoor, tweeted that “India and UAE share the value of non-discrimination on any grounds. Discrimination is against our moral fabric and the Rule of law. Indian nationals in the UAE should always remember this,” 

This came close on the heels of the highly disturbing communal riots in the northeast of Delhi which has given India’s diplomatic image a severe beating. Further, the Indian society saw further polarization after news broke out that a large number of members of the Tablighi Jamaat, an Islamic sect, which had gathered in New Delhi for a conference in March, hid their travel history of coming from a nation hit by COVID-19, travelled to many states, reportedly leading to the spread of the deadly virus to many. This news led to a wave of anti-Muslim sentiment in India.

Rebuilding ties

However, it is not too late for the government to undertake concerted efforts to repair its image. Firstly, India must make a diplomatic outreach - which it has already started doing - to the Muslim countries to assuage their concerns that India is a secular country and is strongly committed to the protection of the minorities; secondly, enforce the iron hand of the law to deal with miscreants disturbing law and order without discrimination; and thirdly, the government must come out clean on the highly contentious Citizenship Amendment Act that is seen as anti-Muslim. The more the government acts with alacrity, the better it will augur for India-Gulf ties in the future.

(The writer is a student of International Relations, Jadavpur University, Kolkata. The views expressed are personal)