There is considerable excitement over the 2025 World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft (WDMMA) report, placing the Indian Air Force (IAF) ahead of China, as the world's third most powerful air force, after the US and Russia, although this is reportedly based on modernization, readiness, and capabilities, not just  numbers. The Global Air Powers Ranking (2025), which is based on total military airpower, ranks India 6th, after the US Air Force, US Navy, Russian Army, US Army and US Marines (https://www.wdmma.org/ranking.php).

Shifting geopolitical dynamics in South Asia are increasing threat levels against India. These include the volatile situation in Bangladesh, the China-Pakistan-Bangladesh-Turkey nexus, Turkey arming Pakistan and Bangladesh, revitalization of Al Qaeda in Turkey by training and arming Syrian soldiers/mercenaries, together with calls from the AQIS, Pakistan and Bangladesh for Ghazwa-e-Hind (GEH), and above all the US-Pakistan embrace amid persistent American efforts to undermine India. Also, Pakistan is seeking a defence pact with Bangladesh, similar to the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Defence Agreement (SPDA).

The US Department of War report on Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2025 states that eyes Arunachal Pradesh, as much as it does Taiwan. The report also mentions China preparing for a  "strategic decisive victory” in Taiwan by 2027 (https://nypost.com/2025/12/24/us-news/china-preparing-to-win-a-war-on-taiwan-by-2027-new-pentagon-report-warns/). China’s focus on Arunachal Pradesh is well known and heavy PLA deployment continues along the entire border with India.

Fake Narratives And Credibility 

Of late, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh and CDS General Anil Chauhan have been hinting the possibility of war in the near future; couldn’t be just a grey zone since that is ongoing.  So what is it – only with Pakistan, though the Pakistani response this time would be different. Will China sit on the fence or are we expecting a multi-front war? Aren’t fake narratives like destroying 12 Bangladeshi checkposts and killing 500 soldiers undermining India’s credibility (https://www.facebook.com/reel/1875680986373478). Is the government not stopping such stupidity to impress the local population or is it sponsored by the ruling party itself?

The IAF is considered to be a balanced force having technological upgrades and effective combat readiness, especially post  Operation Sindoor. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgtTiLPKSBs). Yet the government’s stance on not terminating Operation Sindoor is perhaps to obviate admitting own losses of aircraft and men.

Hype And Ground Reality      

But exuberance over the IAF being placed over China must be viewed in the following backdrop - IAF is not the sole defender; war could be multi-front and definitely multi-domain; need to compare China’s nuclear, maritime, conventional long-range strike, cyber, space and information warfare capabilities vis-à-vis India.

The WDMMA report notwithstanding, critical shortages of the IAF in terms of fighter jets and the Indian Army’s (IA) helicopter shortages can hardly be ignored. In terms of fighter jet squadrons, the IAF now just about equals that of the Pakistan Air Force (PAF). What this means in a multi-front war requires no elaboration. Bangladesh signing a Letter of Intent with Italy in December 2025 for procuring Eurofighter Typhoon jets may not be of much concern, but reports suggesting China supplying 40 J-35 stealth fighters to Pakistan starting 2026 should not be ignored. 

The IAF required 5-6 fighter squadrons as of yesterday, Currently the media is flooded with news about Russia offering Su-57 production under Make-in-India, IAF wanting more Rafales, and filling the void with indigenous Tejas aircraft despite the Tejas programme being inordinately delayed amid serious doubts about the percentage of indigenous content in this aircraft. But imports are always the government's decision based on perceived geopolitical considerations,  and how much money can be made over and under the table, because no defence deal in India is without kickbacks, the first Rafale deal included. There is also pressure from the Trump Administration for more defence imports from the US.

The Bureaucratic Bane 

The IA received the last tranche of three Apache helicopters after a gap of two years in mid-December 2025, but is looking for more to bridge the heavy-attack helicopter capability gap, because the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) Prachand, which was supposed to be ready ages back, has still not proved reliable. The IA wanted 12-18 heavy attack helicopters but the government signed a deal for only six in 2020 (https://defence.in/threads/indian-army-may-seek-additional-apaches-to-bridge-critical-heavy-attack-capability-gap-until-indigenous-lch-arrives.16348/).

The military and Coast Guard ALH Dhruv fleet was grounded in early January 2025 after a fatal crash due to issues with critical components like swash plates. A case of repeated failures  raising serious questions about indigenous defence manufacturing quality and oversight. Some of these  returned to the skies after repairs but overall grounding continued for months, with naval variants facing prolonged grounding due to unresolved systemic safety concerns (https://defence.in/threads/indian-army-may-seek-additional-apaches-to-bridge-critical-heavy-attack-capability-gap-until-indigenous-lch-arrives.16348/).

A post on Meta points out that helicopter imports are forced because of HAL’s inefficiency  (https://www.facebook.com/586255862/posts/10162571240585863/?rdid=9rlLOc2LTyDVvKZq#), but  the government is loathe to address incompetence of the DRDO/HAL because of the bureaucrat-DRDO nexus, which is why the reorganization of DRDO is dragging on and may eventually turn out a facade,

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views expressed are personal)