'Sighter Burst' is a typical fighter pilot terminology, who flew the older generation aircraft viz the majestic Hunters, the wily Gnat and of course the famous Sabre Jet (F-86). All these aircraft were equipped with gyro gun sight which was used to track the target before carrying out a gun attack. A typical gun sight comprised of a pipper (a round circle) in the centre surrounded by eight diamonds. Tracking pilot had to put the pipper on the cockpit of the target aircraft, track for at least two seconds and then open fire. In practice fighter pilots took the ‘sighter burst’ before opening the guns. Put it simply; a 'sighter burst' was a premeditated activity before actual attack.

Israel strike on numerous Iranian targets on 26 October, 2024 appears to be a ‘Sighter Burst’ before possibly impending massive strike on Iranians nuclear installations. Having sifted through the scant data available about nearly 100 Israeli fighter strikes on at least 12 (as per a report attributed to Pentagon) military targets it is evident that Iranian Air Force did not pose any threat to numerous Israeli missions in a nearly three hour window. Whether Israelis struck and destroyed the targets is of little consequence; what is of extreme significance is that no Israeli aircraft was lost.

‘NO LOSS’ highlights a few vital aspects. Firstly, Israeli mission selected intelligent multiple tactical routing while flying mostly over hostile territory, secondly, usage of jammers, thirdly, ineffectiveness/impotence of ground based Iranian SAM systems. While flying to these targets Israeli aircraft must have flown in the proximity of Iranian nuclear sites, Natanz and Fordow in particular.

Did Iranians miscalculate Israeli intent?

Now about the radar cover available to Iranian Vas/VPs. As on date there is no record available if Iranian fighters were scrambled to intercept incoming Israeli raids. It could be because of two reasons: poor training status of Iranian Air Force pilots to execute night interception even during moon phase and inadequate radar network, which were unable to track the incoming aircraft, possibly flying at ultra low level during terminal phase. There could be yet another reason: Iran opted to maintain silence by choice to keep their radar /SAM network cover from opening up for a future event.

Israel had made its intent to attack Iranian nuclear facilities nearly a decade ago. Especially after the JCPOA agreement was signed by the Obama regime Israel clearly enunciated its intent. However at that time the Israeli Air Force did not have suitable weapons to engage deeply embedded nuclear facilities in Iran. The Trump presidency gave a fillip to Israel’s desire to strike an Iranian nuclear facility.

The Biden administration has tried to convince Israel not to attack Iran’s nuclear facility and oil installations, Kharg island in particular. An attack on Iran’s oil installations will have global significance but attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities will remain confined to Iran only. Israel has a golden opportunity (read excuse) to retaliate and attempt to destroy the nuclear installations. The Iranian missile strike on Israel on 1 October was mere symbolism. Apparently Israel hardly suffered any significant damage to life, property and/or military installations. Iran had no choice but to carry out the missile strike to ‘please’ Hamas, Houthi and Hezbollah. 

Iran might have miscalculated that Israel will not retaliate keeping in view their multi front engagements. However Israel took nearly 25 days before striking targets in the heart of Iran. No mission can claim 100% success. But in the case of Israel the 100 aircraft mission appears to be 100% success because of no losses sustained. Israeli jammers must have mapped the actual radar coverage available around Vas/VPs.

Israel will not sit quiet over Iran nukes

The success of the Israeli strike opens a window for the Israeli Air Force to carry out direct attack on nuclear facilities. The results of the US presidential election will decide on ‘GO/NO-GO’. A Trump win will clear the last obstacle. If Israel fails to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities now, it will be doing an ‘INDIA’, which too failed to allow Israel to strike Kahuta in Pakistan. Pakistan today is a formidable nuclear power. Had India allowed staging facility to Israeli fighters at Jamnagar, Kahuta might have met the same fate as Osirak in Iraq.
 
Actual Israeli strike on nuclear targets will/may be during daylight hours. Although satellite pictures give a clear picture of the facilities but for targeting embedded targets the actual point of impact requires sub-metre resolution. Without doubt Israelis will have all these details and must have practiced simulated attacks dozens of times.

A word about attrition while attacking such heavily defended targets. Modern SAM systems viz S-300 etc can still see the target in spite of being jammed. This is accomplished by pumping brute power to radiate and illuminate the incoming hostile aircraft and track it by way of ‘burn-through’ range and launch the missile. However, engagement window reduces markedly and in the event of saturated strike from single/multi radial few strike aircraft do get through. For a target of such significance Israelis would be mentally prepared for suffering heavy attrition. After all, a nuke with Iran will be a threat to Israel’s existence.

Israel will not sit quiet and allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon. Iran already has suitable delivery systems. Weapon-mating will take some time. A 100-aircraft strike by Israel is merely the opening gambit? Will Israel like to regret not grabbing the golden opportunity like India? Israel has to decide for itself with or without the go-ahead from the USA.

(The writer is a former Director, India's Ministry of Defence, retired fighter pilot, author and columnist on national security, geostrategic and military issues. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at tps_in@yahoo.com)