If Jamaat comes to power it will likely begin with populist moves such as anti-corruption drives, predicts Ahmedur Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi writer and editor who has been living in Norway since surviving a 2015 attack. He says he fears mobilisation of religious groups to push for declaring Bangladesh an Islamic republic and enforce Sharia law. The result would be shrinking freedoms for women, curbs on cultural life, and serious threats to freedom of expression, religious minorities, and secular political and cultural spaces.
The threat from ISIS-K is real and growing. A resurgence in Pakistan would have serious implications for the broader region, including India. The danger is compounded if Pakistan once again attempts to clandestinely redirect ISIS-K towards Kashmir. What may appear as an isolated terror incident is, in fact, part of a wider pattern that demands sustained vigilance. Pakistan’s internal security instability risks creating openings for cross-border terror movements, potentially hardening new militant modules aimed at India and beyond.
The optimistic view is that the “Twin Election” will force a compromise. The referendum provides a mandate for reform that even a BNP government cannot ignore. The “July Charter”, if ratified, creates checks on executive power that did not exist before. The students, even if they end up on the opposition benches, will form a moral pressure group that cannot be easily crushed. The cynical view is that Bangladesh is merely swapping a monopoly for a duopoly, or worse, a monopoly of a different colour.
All signs point to a BNP victory. In a competitive contest without the Awami League, the BNP’s organisational depth and electoral reach make it the frontrunner. Yet victory alone may not translate into authority. The absence of the Awami League, the continued influence of Sheikh Hasina from exile, the rise of Islamist alternatives, and the central role of unelected institutions mean that any new government will inherit a fractured polity. The 2026 election may revive the BNP’s fortunes, but it will not by itself heal Bangladesh’s democratic wounds.
Afghanistan wants Beijing to formally apologize for China’s spy-cum-terror module caught operating in Kabul violating international norms before the Chinese detainees are released. However, China will consider this demand an affront, writes Lt Gen Prakash Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
The region’s dependence on imports for production, as well as the contributions of its exports through value chains place some of its economies in an influential position within the global production and trading network, writes Partha Pratim Mitra for South Asia Monitor
The legacy of the Pakistani state’s sponsorship of some terror groups - mainly those used to help pursue its objectives in Afghanistan and India - means that the infrastructure of terror will prove difficult to dismantle (though Islamabad has made progress in curbing terror financing networks, amid strong international pressure), writes Michael Kugelman for South Asia Monitor
Dissent within Nepal’s Communist Party was brewing for a long time but dissolving parliament without a provision in the Constitution is unprecedented. China has invested too much in Nepal to let go of control of Nepalese politics, writes Lt Gen Prakash Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
If contract farming is an idea whose time has come, it is necessary to ask why did it take off from 2002-03 and then sharply decline by 2011-12 in this vanguard agrarian state, writes N Chandra Mohan for South Asia Monitor
More importantly, the South Asia region needs to realise that workers and farmers have a key role to play in promoting sustainable consumption as they are both the end consumers as well as the producers at the start of the supply chain, writes George Cheriyan & Simi T.B. for South Asia Monitor
But it is interesting to note that 49 years hence, there seems to be no change in how the nation views the civil war and a bloody separation of its eastern province, writes Mahendra Ved for South Asia Monitor
The ‘uncultured’ state of Pakistan has not apologized yet for the 1971 genocide. It should be compelled, writes Farabi Bin Zahir for South Asia Monitor
New Delhi also needs to recognize that the rules of diplomacy are changing and that country, especially the US under Biden, would not hesitate to make remarks about human rights violations or on communal tensions and certainly, the changes in the status of Jammu and Kashmir. None of these would qualify, for Biden’s Administration, as being ‘internal matters,’ writes Amb Amit Dasgupta (retd) for South Asia Monitor
On this International Migrants Day, it is worth noting that not every migrant succeeds in an adopted land. For evidence, one need not go beyond the Indian American community. While the community’s many successes and accomplishments have been well-documented, a less-publicized fact is the plight of hundreds of thousands of Indian nationals in the United States, writes Frank Islam for South Asia Monitor
What the BJP may have realized, therefore, from these sporadic eruptions of protests is that electoral success is not the be-all and end-all of politics, writes Amulya Ganguli for South Asia Monitor
Many people want to know why the ruling Awami League is perpetuating this "sculpture politics". Why is this issue being given so much importance so as to forget the numerous other challenges Bangladesh is facing? writes Akmal Hossain for South Asia Monitor
India for the time being has chosen to call for an adjournment on the multidimensional chessboard of multilateral trade/strategic agreements which can be seen as a wise move, writes Kumardeep Banerjee for South Asia Monitor
Little help has been extended to Bangladesh to resolve the Rohingya problem. Even in international forums like the UN, no one voted for Bangladesh when it brought a resolution condemning human rights violations in Myanmar, particularly against Rohingya Muslims, writes Swadesh Roy for South Asia Monitor
China’s aim of building these new villages along the LAC with India is multiple. These helped populate Han Chinese closer to the border areas, overwhelming the Tibetan population demographically since the invasion and occupation of Tibet in 1959-51, writes Lt Gen Prakash Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
