Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation, announced on September 2 that the draft US-Taliban peace agreement was closed; the US would withdraw some 5,400 troops and close five bases within 135 days  (subject to presidential approval) and the Taliban would reciprocate by not allowing Afghanistan to be used as a base for terror attacks from groups like Al Qaeda or Islamic State, against the US and allies. But soon thereafter came news that US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo had refused to sign the “risky” Afghan peace deal.
 
On September 7, US Defence Secretary Mark Esper said Washington was seeking a political agreement with the Taliban but would not accept just any deal after a wave of Taliban violence cast a shadow over the talks. Esper said, “We will make sure we have a good enough deal that guarantees at least the security of our countries going forward and a brighter path ahead for the Afghan people.”
 
Then came a series of tweets by US President Donald Trump saying he was set to meet President Ghani and senior Taliban leaders at Camp David but had cancelled the meeting after Taliban owned responsibility for the bombing in Kabul that killed 12 people, including a US soldier. Trump’s tweets stated: "Unfortunately, in order to build false leverage, [the Taliban] admitted to an attack in Kabul that killed one of our great soldiers. I immediately cancelled the meeting and called off peace negotiations" and, “If they cannot agree to a ceasefire during these very important peace talks, and would even kill 12 innocent people, then they probably don’t have the power to negotiate a meaningful agreement anyway”
 
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s office confirmed that he was due to meet Trump ‘separately’ on September 9, but his trip to the US was cancelled. His spokesperson reiterated a long-standing demand for direct negotiations with Taliban. Later, Pompeo said that the Camp David meeting had been in the works ‘for a while’ before it was cancelled as the Taliban had failed to keep preliminary conditions, including reducing violence.
 
"As you saw, if the Taliban don't behave, if they don't deliver ... the President of the United States is not going to reduce the pressure." However, Pompeo also said  that talks could be reopened with a significant commitment from the Taliban.
 
Taliban spokesperson, Zabiullah Mujahid, criticized Trump for calling off the dialogue and said US forces have been pounding Afghanistan with attacks at the same time. “This will lead to more losses to the US. Its credibility will be affected, its anti-peace stance will be exposed to the world, losses to lives and assets will increase,” he said, adding that the Taliban and the Afghan government had agreed to talks on September 23. However, the Afghan government has not confirmed this. Significantly, Trump also said that real peace would only be possible when the Taliban agree to a ceasefire and direct talks with the Afghan government.
 
Behind calling Talban leaders for a secret meeting at Camp David is Trump’s style of personal diplomacy – something he has been practicing with North Korean President Kim Jong-un, without much success. But calling the Taliban, responsible for killing 1,833 US soldiers in Afghanistan, is different, especially when the Taliban have indulged in violence concurrent to every round of talks. Besides, it was amply clear from the draft deal that Taliban were not yielding an inch and their future actions were based on faith, which they had never exhibited. The Taliban’s claims of direct talks with the Afghan government being slated for September 23 indicates that they wanted the US to first commit to troop withdrawal before they decided whether to talk to the Afghan government or not.
 
Why did Trump call for the Camp David meet and cancel it when one more US soldier was killed? The Taliban had never agreed to a ceasefire and even stated they would continue to attack the Afghan government and security forces after the US-Taliban peace agreement was signed. Possibly Trump realized that the draft deal, if signed, would be labeled a surrender to the Taliban, which would be politically damaging for him. Another reason could be that he never really wanted to meet the Taliban but wanted to showcase the peace effort made, and put indirect pressure on Taliban through the subterfuge. Perhaps US intelligence officials met Taliban leaders who had arrived for the Camp David meeting and gauged they had no intention of talking to the Afghan government subsequently, or has there been a secret understanding?
 
US-Taliban talks are dead for the time being, as acknowledged by the US. The intriguing part is how were intra-Afghan talks scheduled for September 23, and not earlier, with presidential elections in Afghanistan scheduled for September 28. With the US-Taliban deal called off, elections will likely witness a spurt in violence; to what extent these can be successfully conducted is also debatable.
 
Trump wanted to reduce troops in Afghanistan to levels at which they were when he became president. But the Taliban now have more Afghan territory under them. They will up the ante even as talks continue at multiple levels, involving the US, China, Russia, Uzbekistan and Pakistan, among others. For the US to reduce troops in Afghanistan, in addition to increasing pressure on the Taliban, it is more important to cut all external support to them, particularly from Pakistan.   
 
(The author is Distinguished Fellow, United Service Institution of India)