It has been three years since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan. Since their return, multiple terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and many other terror groups have also returned to Afghanistan and established their training compounds in various parts of the country, spreading from the south to the north. All the groups mentioned above have been strategic allies of the Taliban since the 1990s. Moreover, these groups fought alongside the Taliban against NATO and the former Afghanistan security forces from 2001 until 2021. During this time, the bond between them has strengthened more than ever.

Therefore, since the Taliban returned to power, these groups have also relocated their bases from Pakistan's former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into Afghanistan. For instance, the TTP has established its bases in the border areas between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while Ansarullah of Tajikistan, under the leadership of a young Tajik militant Mehdi Arsalan, has established bases in the Badakhshan province in the northeast of the country, which shares a border with Tajikistan. The Taliban not only allowed Mehdi to establish bases in Badakhshan, they also surrendered control of some border districts near the Tajik border. Additionally, Uzbek militants affiliated with the IMU are settled in Jawzjan province in the north of the country, and there is also belief that Jaish-ul-Adl, an anti-Iran group, is operating in Afghanistan’s western provinces, which share a border with Iran.

According to reports from international agencies, more than 20 extremist groups are active in Afghanistan. All these groups share the same agenda: the overthrow of their respective governments and the establishment of regimes based on Sharia Law, similar to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Among these 20 extremist groups, the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISK-P), an offshoot of the Islamic State of Iraq and Sham (ISIS), is the only terror group in Afghanistan that has challenged the Taliban’s so-called Islamic regime.

Taliban, ISK-P same ideology but sworn enemies

However, the Taliban and ISK-P have the same interpretation of Sharia law. Both groups believe in the concept of jihad against non-Muslims, the imposition of Sharia, and the establishment of a caliphate under the leadership of a Muslim Emir or Caliph. Despite their common ideology, they are sworn enemies. ISK-P poses not only a threat to the Taliban regime but also a significant threat to global security.

Since ISK-P lost its territory in the Middle East as well as most of its fighters, its leadership has decided to relocate their fighters to Afghanistan. They believe that Afghanistan, under Taliban control, is the most secure place for them to hide and execute their terroristic plans in various parts of the world. Another key international terror network is al-Qaeda, the long-standing strategic ally of the Taliban. Following the Taliban’s return to power, al-Qaeda leaders and members have also reentered Afghanistan. Their leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, was killed by an American drone strike in a safe house facilitated by the Haqqani Network (HQN) in the green zone of Kabul in July 2022.

Despite reports of the incident, both al-Qaeda and the Taliban denied Zawahiri’s presence and his death in Kabul in an effort to reduce international pressure on the Taliban, as this was a clear violation of the Doha Agreement. In that agreement, signed by Mullah Baradar and Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Peace Negotiations, the Taliban promised to sever all ties with al-Qaeda and other terror groups. Despite their commitment to the U.S. and the international community, the Taliban have continued their relations with al-Qaeda and other terror groups, a fact confirmed by the United Nations Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team.

Continued ties with al-Qaeda

The Taliban not only failed to cut their ties with al-Qaeda, but they have also appointed some al-Qaeda members as advisers in their so-called Kabul administration. For instance, recent reports from the UN Security Council (UNSC) indicate that Sirrajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban's interior minister, appointed Abu Ali, a Libyan national and member of al-Qaeda, as his adviser. Moreover, according to a report from the Long War Journal, Sayf al-Adl, believed to be al-Qaeda’s current overall emir, in pamphlets entitled “This is Gaza: A War of Existence, Not a War of Borders,” released by al-Qaeda Central’s As-Sahab Media, calls on supporters around the world to migrate to Afghanistan. Adl’s call for migration suggests that Afghanistan has now become a safe haven for al-Qaeda and its future plans.

Since the Taliban captured power in August 2021, al-Qaeda has established a significant amount of infrastructure in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda operates training camps in 10 out of the 34 provinces. These camps are located in Badghis, Helmand, Ghazni, Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Parwan, Uruzgan, and Zabul. Recently, al-Qaeda has also established a new base “to stockpile weaponry in Panjshir province, the former bastion of the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front.”

In addition to these training camps, al-Qaeda has established five madrasas, or religious schools, in the provinces of Laghman, Kunar, Nangarhar, Nuristan, and Parwan. It is also believed that several al-Qaeda leaders currently reside in Afghanistan, including Sayf al-Adl, the current leader of al-Qaeda; Abdul Rahman al-Maghrebi, deputy to Sayf al-Adl; Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, the leader of ETIM and a member of al-Qaeda’s leadership council; Osama Mahmood, the leader of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent; Abu Ikhlas al-Masri, al-Qaeda’s top military commander; and Abdul Rahman al-Ghamdi, who acts as a liaison to Sayf al-Adl and Maghrebi during their travels.

Safe haven for terrorists

Considering this, and reports from various international agencies and security analysts, Afghanistan has turned into fertile ground for terrorist groups from around the world. If the flow of terrorism continues unchecked in Afghanistan, there is little doubt that the world could face another incident similar to 9/11, or perhaps something even worse. Today, Afghanistan has become a security black hole for the regional countries and the world overall. Despite claims from the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that they have control over the situation, the reality is that no one truly knows what is happening inside the country.

Afghanistan’s current state is similar to a ticking time bomb that could explode at any moment, creating a new global crisis. It is crucial for the international community to ensure that Afghanistan does not remain a safe haven for terrorists. The global community must work with the people of Afghanistan to stabilize the country. This is the only way to safeguard Afghanistan and the world from the threat of terrorism.

(The author is a Ph.D Scholar, Department of Defence and National Security Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh. Views are personal. He can be contacted at zahidaria12@gmail.com )