Postponement of the visit by Afghan Army Chief General Wali Mohammad Ahmadzai to India this week because of the Taliban offensive against the government forces indicates the gravity of the ground situation in Afghanistan. The accelerated withdrawal of the US troops despite speedy gains by the Taliban has perpetuated the instability.

Former US President Donald Trump’s meaningless US-Taliban peace deal and the incumbent Joe Biden’s hasty pull out instead of a delayed drawdown indicates a panicky American retreat, notwithstanding promises of over-the-horizon air support and intelligence operations post withdrawal.

The Taliban, a hardline Sunni Islamist militia, claims to have already captured 85-90 percent of Afghan territory.  which has been denied by the Afghan government. According to Afghan media, 215 of the over 400 districts are now with the Taliban, including several economically important port areas.

The fact remains that the Taliban have made very significant gains, capturing border crossing into Central Asian Republics and Iran, targeting power pylons and fiber-optic cables, instilling fear through abductions and killings. They have been killing soldiers of surrendered Afghan forces in cold blood, and have even attacked the India-built Salma Dam though unsuccessfully.

According to Pentagon press secretary John Kirby, the US has launched about half a dozen airstrikes across Afghanistan over the last few days as part of the effort to support Afghan security forces attempting to hold the Taliban at bay. The Afghan defense ministry has claimed that at least 175 Taliban terrorists have been killed in the airstrikes in intensified fighting in various parts of Afghanistan lately. General Kenneth F McKenzie Jr, Commander of US Central Command has said that US airstrikes against the Taliban will continue. But the militia is attuned to plenty of airstrikes over the past 20 years.

The Taliban spokespersons claim they do not want to monopolize power but insist there won’t be peace in Afghanistan until there is a new negotiated government in Kabul and President Ashraf Ghani is removed.

However, this is just a ruse because they are not interested in contesting elections, don’t believe in a democratic government and aim nothing short of ruling Afghanistan themselves. Surely they don’t want to share power with the IS and al-Qaeda.

State of Afghan government forces

During the 20-year war in Afghanistan, the US has spent over USD 2 trillion. No doubt a considerable amount of money and effort was spent on training the Afghan forces by the US, its partner countries in North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and the now-disbanded International Security Assistance Force (ISAF). These figures perhaps led the Joe Biden administration to believe that the Afghan forces would be able to stave off the Taliban offensives even with less air and artillery support. But a very significant fact was overlooked.
 
In an article on December 12, 2012 in AntiWar.com John Glaser said, “Thousands of Afghan soldiers are deserting the army in a sign that the US-led effort to train security forces before the 2014 withdrawal date is not the triumph US officials have been trying to claim. Around 50,000 Afghan soldiers, or about 26 percent, quit the army each year. Additionally, about 8 percent of Afghan police officers quit each year.”
 
This was happening because the Afghan soldier is contracted for five years, which left little scope for specialization. But more significantly, unsure of future employment many soldiers deserted in their last year of service with personal weapons which were later sold and some even joined the Taliban.

The Afghan government wanted to increase the contractual terms of soldiers to 10 years but could not for lack of assured finances. This is the state of affairs even today though the data on desertions is not available. Many desertions have been reported in the face of the current Taliban offensive. The talk of 300,000 Afghan forces taking on 75,000 Taliban militants needs to be viewed in this context.

Fortress defense

US Secretary of Defense General Lloyd James Austin has said that the Afghan forces must slow the Taliban’s momentum. The question is how. The Afghan forces are now understood to be focusing on defending key areas, which amounts to ‘‘fortress defense’. Admittedly, the Taliban may not want to get involved in fighting in cities and large towns but fortress defense also sucks in a large number of the defender’s troops.

The Taliban will have the advantage of attacking the logistics and replenishment columns because of the depleted air support and surveillance available to Afghan forces, and can still invest in part of the built-up areas and hope for these fortress defenses to capitulate gradually. That may not happen very soon but the civil war is there to stay and the Taliban will keep increasing the pressure on capital Kabul as well.

The US will keep assuring Afghan forces of air support but bombing built-up areas invested by the Taliban would imply more Afghan civilians killed. That is the irony of Afghanistan.  

(The writer is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are personal)