Sheikh Hasina's exit from Bangladesh's political scene, following 15 years of tense ties with Pakistan, is a watershed moment for South Asia. For more than a decade and a half, Pakistan-Bangladesh relations were strained by distrust, historical grievances, and India's rising influence in Dhaka during Hasina's Awami League administration. With a new interim government in place, led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, Islamabad sees a chance to restore relations with Dhaka. However, as this new chapter progresses, the complexity of the past, regional geopolitics, and Bangladesh's internal political dynamics will all influence the future of this partnership.

A Tumultuous History: The Shadow of 1971

To appreciate the tense ties between Pakistan and Bangladesh during Sheikh Hasina's reign, one needs to review the 1971 events. The conflict that resulted in Bangladesh's independence remains a source of deep historical pain. Sheikh Hasina, the daughter of Bangladesh's founding father, Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, incorporated the scars of the violent battle into her political agenda. Her term in power, from 1996 to 2001 and again from 2009 to 2024, was distinguished by an unwavering attitude against Pakistan, which she considered accountable for the 1971 crimes.

From Pakistan's perspective, the events of 1971 are a terrible part of its history that it recognises but does not believe should define future ties. Islamabad has frequently emphasised the need to move beyond the animosity of the war, emphasising that both countries suffered during the fight. Nonetheless, Hasina's government's political murders of Pakistani elites throughout the conflict further widened the split. Under her leadership, Dhaka remained strongly allied with New Delhi, stifling any substantial development in bilateral relations with Pakistan.

Hasina’s Departure: A Window for Reconciliation?

The political turmoil that resulted in Sheikh Hasina's fall in August 2024, following huge student-led demonstrations, provides Pakistan with an opportunity to reset its ties with Bangladesh. With Muhammad Yunus at the helm of the interim administration, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif lost no time in reaching out for collaboration. In a phone conversation with Yunus, Sharif stressed Pakistan's intention to increase commerce, cultural exchanges, and people-to-people interaction between the two countries.

For Pakistan, this change in leadership might signal the start of a thaw in long-frozen ties. The absence of Hasina, widely seen in Pakistan as a staunch supporter of India, provides an opportunity for Islamabad to engage Dhaka without the historical baggage that has weighed down previous diplomatic efforts. While the change in leadership may provide a chance for reconciliation, the path to normalising relations will be riddled with difficulties.

The India Factor: A Delicate Balancing Act

India's influence is one of the major hurdles to improving Pakistan-Bangladesh ties. Under Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh's foreign policy was closely linked with that of New Delhi, reflecting a shared history and strategic cooperation. India had an important part in Bangladesh's independence and continues to have a considerable impact on Dhaka's domestic and foreign affairs.

In the post-Hasina period, anti-India sentiment has grown in Bangladesh, as seen by the student demonstrations that helped overthrow her administration. Many Bangladeshis, notably followers of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami have long criticised Hasina for being too close to New Delhi and allowing India undue influence over the country's politics and economy. While its primary goal is to restore order and resolve internal concerns, the new temporary administration must tread gingerly.

For Pakistan, prevailing anti-India sentiment provides a potential chance to re-establish relations with Bangladesh. However, Islamabad must exercise caution in not focusing its diplomatic efforts primarily on its competition with India. While shared cultural, religious, and historical links between Pakistan and Bangladesh provide a solid framework for better relations, any overt anti-India stance might backfire, especially given India's strategic importance to Bangladesh.

Defense Deal and Regional Implications

One of the interesting developments in the post-Hasina era has been the defence agreement between Bangladesh and Pakistan. According to reports, Dhaka placed a large purchase for artillery ammunition and explosives from Pakistan barely weeks after forming the interim administration. This agreement, while not exceptional, indicates a potential shift in Bangladesh's security posture and raises concerns about its larger geopolitical consequences.

For India, Pakistan and Bangladesh's defence cooperation is reason for concern. The long, porous border between India and Bangladesh, along with New Delhi's historical position as a vital supporter of Dhaka, make any reconciliation between Islamabad and Dhaka a sensitive matter. The weapons agreement, in particular, has fuelled suspicion in India about a potential shift in Bangladesh's outlook, particularly in light of the anti-India rhetoric that surrounded the protests that led to Hasina's removal.

While it is too early to conclude whether Bangladesh is altering its strategic alignment away from India, the weapons contract with Pakistan indicates Dhaka is looking at a review of old ties. For Pakistan, this is a promising sign that Bangladesh is eager to interact more openly, but Islamabad must move with prudence and avoid steps that may spark a regional backlash.

Building on Common Ground

To improve ties with Bangladesh, Pakistan would be wise to focus on areas of mutual advantage rather than controversial geopolitical problems. Trade and economic cooperation provide a clear avenue for both nations to strengthen ties. Bangladesh's economy has expanded dramatically in the last decade, and Pakistan may gain from increasing trade with Dhaka, notably in textiles and other major industries.

Cultural exchanges and human-to-human interactions are equally vital. During Sheikh Hasina's reign, visa restrictions and the suspension of direct flights significantly restricted engagement between Pakistanis and Bangladeshis. Resuming flights, relaxing visa requirements, and encouraging cultural diplomacy through collaborative media ventures, youth exchanges, and academic cooperation might all contribute to the rebuilding of confidence and goodwill.

Furthermore, Pakistan must recognise Bangladesh's sovereignty and status as an independent nation. While the two nations have a shared past, Pakistan should approach its relationship with Bangladesh with humility, acknowledging the grave scars of 1971 while looking to the future.

Opportunity for Pakistan

The post-Hasina period provides Pakistan with a great chance to re-establish its ties with Bangladesh. With Muhammad Yunus running an interim administration, there is anticipation in Islamabad that Dhaka would be more willing to cooperate than it was under Sheikh Hasina. However, the complexity of regional geopolitics, notably India's influence, will continue to define the future of Pakistan-Bangladesh ties.

For both countries, the key to establishing a long-term partnership is to prioritise common interests—trade, culture, and people-to-people ties—rather than allowing historical grievances or regional rivalries to dominate the discussion. If Islamabad and Dhaka can overcome these hurdles, the next chapter in Pakistan-Bangladesh relations might be one of collaboration and mutual respect, as opposed to the anger and distrust that have marked the last 15 years.

(The author is a postgraduate student of Strategic Studies at the Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS), a school of the National University of Science and Technology (NUST), Islamabad. Views are personal. He can be reached at waleedsami56@gmail.com )