A new 'great game' in the Maldives? Male's shifting sands a strategic challenge for Indian diplomacy

The Maldives has undergone a radical transformation. To see this as playing the India or China card would be a miscalculation. Indeed, the strategic narrative of what is going on is very different. 

Amb Amit Dasgupta (retd) Feb 17, 2024
Image
Mohammed Muizzu

Mohammed Muizzu’s convincing electoral victory (54% votes) on an openly ‘India out’ campaign has shaken up New Delhi’s strategic and intelligence community, which had for years taken the Maldives relationship for granted and, consequently, misread political signals and shifting public sentiments. In popular and official perception, the Maldives is thought of only as a small idyllic island country blessed with natural beauty that was a haven for tourists and rich Indians, and dependent on India.

To be fair, at a purely government-to-government level, New Delhi and Male have enjoyed warm and friendly relations over several decades. India had consistently reached out to the Maldives. During the pandemic, Maldives was a priority beneficiary of vaccines and medical support from New Delhi. Maldivians flocked in large numbers to India for education and professional training. Male’s first and biggest government hospital was a gift from India. Keeping the climate change concerns of the Maldives in mind, Indian negotiators have consistently ensured that Maldivian interests are not lost sight of. 

In 1988, when there was a coup attempt to overthrow the then-president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, he reached out to India (Operation Cactus). India stationed two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft on request from the Maldivian government to provide for medical evacuation, and search and rescue operations. The list can be expanded to reflect several actions by New Delhi in support of and response to Male’s requests.

Despite this, anti-India sentiment appeared to be growing in the island country that strategists failed to fully appreciate the depth and intensity of, even though it directly threatened India’s critical strategic interests.

Misreading of Male sentiments

Male’s wooing of China, especially during the Yameen tenure, was meant to aggravate India. New Delhi patronizingly dismissed it as an irritant and an aberration. Yameen’s arrest and imprisonment on corruption charges was viewed as vindication that Yameen’s pro-Beijing policies had been rejected and had few takers, if any. President Solih’s pro-India stance reinforced the view that New Delhi had nothing to fear and that the Maldives was firmly in its camp.

Perhaps the biggest misreading was of the resentment openly expressed through demonstrations outside the Indian embassy when it celebrated Yoga Day. Maldivians are intolerant of other religions. Former president Gayoom had once directed that no religion, other than Islam, should be permitted in the Maldives. The celebration of Yoga Day was, consequently, seen as being openly hostile and anti-Islam. Muizzu, a deeply devout Muslim, took advantage of this and knew he would find support among the many practicing Muslims in the Maldives. A reading of the election results shows that India was seen as a potential threat to Islam and needed to be distanced.

Muizzu was also confident that India’s reaction would be predictable because New Delhi adhered to the norms and tenets of diplomacy, unlike Beijing. Indeed, if China were its neighbour, instead of India, anti-China posturing would have seen a quick response through a military invasion and the possible annexation of the Maldives, despite the 1887 protection agreement Maldives has with the UK. New Delhi, on the other hand, in keeping with the traditions of democracy, would respect the will of the Maldivian people, even though it found the current developments unfairly confronting and deeply disturbing. Quiet and persuasive diplomacy has been a hallmark of Indian foreign policy and Muizzu took advantage of that.

What is particularly alarming is the absolute temerity with which three of Muizzu’s deputy ministers felt emboldened enough to make derogatory remarks against none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. This was unprecedented. While the ministers were quickly suspended, following protests from the Indian embassy, it was also a clear indication that Muizzu’s supporters had no hesitation in openly voicing their anti-India and hostile sentiments. The unnecessary statements by social celebrities and film actors from India only added fuel to the fire.  

Challenge to win back trust

The Maldives has undergone a radical transformation. To see this as playing the India or China card would be a miscalculation. Indeed, the strategic narrative of what is going on is very different. It may be recalled that to ensure security and avoid being caught in a tug-of-war between Beijing and New Delhi, Solih decided to play for higher stakes by wooing the international community. Muizu will do the same and the Maldives will punch above its weight.

Consider, for instance, that only a handful of countries presently have a diplomatic presence in Male, India included. While China engages the Maldives through its embassy in Colombo, it is widely believed that the US is proposing to open an embassy in Male, which would trigger similar interest from other Western powers, especially Washington’s allies. This might well result in the emergence of the Maldives as a strategic player in the geopolitical landscape with different rivalries vying for their attention and more importantly, space. For India, this cannot be good news, especially with Kathmandu, Colombo and Dhaka not averse to Chinese presence. Indeed, it would be yet another encroachment in India’s sphere of influence triggering a ‘great game’ type of scenario.

The neighbourhood has been a matter of concern and priority focus for Indian foreign and security policy. Muizzu’s frostiness towards India is, undoubtedly, a setback for New Delhi. This is, however, the time for quiet diplomacy and a consistent process of reaching out to the government and people to allay fears and to help Maldivians realize that India has been a long and trusted ally. The process will be slow and painstaking. Given the genuineness with which India has always responded to Male, it is not impossible to win back trust.

(The author is a former Indian diplomat. Views are personal.)

Post a Comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
영등포출장마사지
Mon, 06/03/2024 - 07:23
It's going to be ending of mine day, but before ending I
am reading this great paragraph to increase my know-how.
은평구출장마사지
Mon, 06/03/2024 - 08:15
you are actually a good webmaster. The web site loading speed is
amazing. It kind of feels that you are doing any unique trick.
In addition, The contents are masterpiece.
you have done a excellent job on this subject!
서울 마사지
Mon, 06/03/2024 - 20:58
Thanks for sharing such a pleasant idea, piece of writing is good, thats why i have read it
entirely
강남출장안마
Tue, 06/04/2024 - 06:28
This is very attention-grabbing, You are a very skilled blogger.
I have joined your rss feed and look forward to in quest of
extra of your fantastic post. Additionally, I've shared your website in my social networks
잠실출장마사지
Wed, 06/05/2024 - 19:30
Hello! This is kind of off topic but I need some advice from
an established blog. Is it tough to set up your own blog?
I'm not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty fast.
I'm thinking about setting up my own but I'm not sure where to start.
Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Thanks
about
Thu, 06/06/2024 - 00:55
Hi to every one, the contents present at this web page are in fact remarkable for people experience, well,
keep up the good work fellows.
about
Fri, 06/07/2024 - 09:03
I quite like reading through an article that will make people think.
Also, many thanks for permitting me to comment!
구리출장안마
Fri, 06/07/2024 - 10:37
If you want to increase your experience only keep visiting
this website and be updated with the newest gossip posted here.
구로출장마사지
Fri, 06/07/2024 - 10:49
If some one needs to be updated with most up-to-date technologies therefore he must be go to see this
site and be up to date everyday.
부천마사지
Fri, 06/07/2024 - 19:55
Interesting blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere?
A theme like yours with a few simple tweeks would really make my blog jump out.
Please let me know where you got your design. Cheers
판교출장마사지
Fri, 06/07/2024 - 20:08
Hello, of course this paragraph is actually fastidious and I have learned lot of
things from it on the topic of blogging. thanks.
서울 마사지
Fri, 06/07/2024 - 20:40
I blog frequently and I really thank you for your information. This article has truly peaked my interest.
I will bookmark your blog and keep checking for new information about
once a week. I subscribed to your RSS feed as well.
출장 오피
Sat, 06/08/2024 - 06:27
My spouse and I absolutely love your blog and find
many of your post's to be what precisely I'm looking for.
can you offer guest writers to write content available for you?
I wouldn't mind writing a post or elaborating on a few of
the subjects you write related to here. Again, awesome web site!
안양출장마사지
Sat, 06/08/2024 - 23:38
Hi there, just became alert to your blog through Google,
and found that it is really informative. I am going to watch out for
brussels. I'll appreciate if you continue this in future.
A lot of people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!
신촌출장마사지
Sat, 06/08/2024 - 23:56
Awesome article.
분당출장마사지
Sun, 06/09/2024 - 10:10
Hey I know this is off topic but I was wondering if
you knew of any widgets I could add to my
blog that automatically tweet my newest twitter updates.
I've been looking for a plug-in like this for quite some time and was hoping maybe you
would have some experience with something like this.
Please let me know if you run into anything. I truly enjoy reading your blog and I look forward to your new updates.
서울출장안마
Sun, 06/09/2024 - 19:20
Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on sites I stumbleupon every day.
It's always exciting to read through articles from other authors and practice a little something from other websites.
동탄출장안마
Sun, 06/09/2024 - 20:34
You can certainly see your expertise in the article you write.
The sector hopes for even more passionate writers such
as you who aren't afraid to mention how they believe.

Always go after your heart.
분당출장마사지
Sun, 06/09/2024 - 21:08
I'm really enjoying the design and layout of your site.
It's a very easy on the eyes which makes it much more enjoyable for me to come here and visit more often. Did you hire out
a designer to create your theme? Great work!
용인출장마사지
Tue, 06/11/2024 - 08:41
Normally I do not read article on blogs, but I would like to say that this write-up very pressured me to check out and do so!
Your writing style has been amazed me. Thank you, quite great
article.
판교출장마사지
Tue, 06/11/2024 - 09:05
Your style is unique compared to other people I have read stuff from.
Thank you for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess I'll just bookmark this blog.
화성출장마사지
Wed, 06/12/2024 - 20:37
It's difficult to find well-informed people on this topic,
however, you sound like you know what you're talking about!

Thanks
역삼출장안마
Thu, 06/13/2024 - 05:21
I read this article fully concerning the resemblance of latest and
earlier technologies, it's awesome article.
김포출장마사지
Thu, 06/13/2024 - 20:03
It's really a cool and useful piece of info.
I am satisfied that you simply shared this useful information with
us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
출장마사지
Thu, 06/13/2024 - 23:31
I would like to thank you for the efforts you have put in writing
this site. I am hoping to see the same high-grade blog posts by you
in the future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me
to get my own website now ;)
신림출장안마
Fri, 06/14/2024 - 06:26
Good info. Lucky me I found your blog by accident (stumbleupon).
I've book marked it for later!
송파출장마사지
Sat, 06/15/2024 - 06:15
Good blog you have got here.. It's difficult to find high-quality writing like yours nowadays.
I honestly appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!
마포출장안마
Sat, 06/15/2024 - 07:10
Wow, marvelous blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
you made blogging look easy. The overall look of your site is great, let alone the content!
의왕출장안마
Sat, 06/15/2024 - 12:44
If some one desires expert view regarding blogging after that i advise him/her to go to see
this web site, Keep up the good job.
노원출장안마
Sat, 06/15/2024 - 14:33
Everyone loves what you guys are usually up too. Such clever work
and coverage! Keep up the good works guys I've incorporated
you guys to my blogroll.
하남출장마사지
Sat, 06/15/2024 - 20:59
WOW just what I was searching for. Came here by searching for
안양출장마사지
신림출장마사지
Sun, 06/16/2024 - 01:37
You're so cool! I don't believe I've truly read through anything like this before.
So good to find someone with some genuine thoughts on this issue.
Seriously.. thanks for starting this up. This site is something that's needed on the internet,
someone with a bit of originality!
강서구출장안마
Sun, 06/16/2024 - 22:37
Hurrah, that's what I was exploring for, what a information! present
here at this weblog, thanks admin of this web page.
길동출장안마
Sun, 06/16/2024 - 22:46
It's really very difficult in this active life to listen news on TV, so
I only use the web for that reason, and get the latest news.
강남안마
Mon, 06/17/2024 - 07:21
hi!,I really like your writing very much! proportion we keep
in touch extra about your article on AOL? I need an expert on this house to unravel my problem.
May be that's you! Having a look ahead to peer
you.
about
Mon, 06/17/2024 - 08:47
obviously like your website but you need to check the spelling on several of your posts.

A number of them are rife with spelling problems and I to find it very troublesome to inform the reality nevertheless I will definitely come back again.
서울출장마사지
Mon, 06/17/2024 - 20:50
For most recent news you have to go to see the web and on web I found this site as a finest site for hottest updates.
길동출장안마
Tue, 06/18/2024 - 17:53
Very nice post. I just stumbled upon your weblog and wanted to
mention that I have really enjoyed surfing
around your blog posts. After all I'll be subscribing for your rss feed and I'm
hoping you write again very soon!
송파출장마사지
Tue, 06/18/2024 - 17:54
This is very interesting, You are a very skilled blogger.
I've joined your feed and look forward to seeking more of your magnificent post.
Also, I have shared your site in my social networks!
판교출장마사지
Wed, 06/19/2024 - 03:55
Quality content is the key to interest the users to pay a
quick visit the site, that's what this web page is providing.
화성출장마사지
Wed, 06/19/2024 - 13:20
I do not even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good.
I don't know who you are but certainly you are going
to a famous blogger if you aren't already ;) Cheers!
서울후불출장
Wed, 06/19/2024 - 13:46
Very rapidly this web site will be famous among all blogging users, due
to it's good articles
시흥출장안마
Wed, 06/19/2024 - 19:12
Excellent post. I was checking continuously this blog
and I am inspired! Very helpful info specifically the last section :
) I handle such information a lot. I used to be looking for this certain info for a very long time.
Thank you and best of luck.
안산출장마사지
Wed, 06/19/2024 - 22:16
Thanks for sharing your thoughts about south asia news.
Regards
대화동출장마사지
Thu, 06/20/2024 - 23:32
I don't know whether it's just me or if everyone else encountering issues with your website.
It seems like some of the written text within your content are running off the screen.
Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well?
This might be a issue with my internet browser because I've had
this happen before. Appreciate it
서울후불출장
Fri, 06/21/2024 - 10:13
Magnificent beat ! I wish to apprentice even as you amend your web site, how could i subscribe for a blog
web site? The account helped me a appropriate deal. I had been tiny bit familiar of this your broadcast provided vivid transparent concept
잠실출장마사지
Fri, 06/21/2024 - 11:41
Hey, I think your website might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your blog site in Ie, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, superb blog!
관악구출장마사지
Fri, 06/21/2024 - 18:36
Great post. I was checking constantly this blog and I am impressed!

Very helpful information specifically the last part :) I care for
such information a lot. I was seeking this particular information for a long time.
Thank you and good luck.
고양출장안마
Sat, 06/22/2024 - 12:08
What's up to every body, it's my first pay a quick visit of this weblog; this webpage includes awesome and in fact excellent stuff designed for readers.
서울출장후불제
Sat, 06/22/2024 - 13:19
Do you have a spam issue on this site; I
also am a blogger, and I was wanting to know your situation; many of
us have created some nice procedures and we are looking to trade strategies with others, please shoot me
an email if interested.