A new 'great game' in the Maldives? Male's shifting sands a strategic challenge for Indian diplomacy
The Maldives has undergone a radical transformation. To see this as playing the India or China card would be a miscalculation. Indeed, the strategic narrative of what is going on is very different.
Mohammed Muizzu’s convincing electoral victory (54% votes) on an openly ‘India out’ campaign has shaken up New Delhi’s strategic and intelligence community, which had for years taken the Maldives relationship for granted and, consequently, misread political signals and shifting public sentiments. In popular and official perception, the Maldives is thought of only as a small idyllic island country blessed with natural beauty that was a haven for tourists and rich Indians, and dependent on India.
To be fair, at a purely government-to-government level, New Delhi and Male have enjoyed warm and friendly relations over several decades. India had consistently reached out to the Maldives. During the pandemic, Maldives was a priority beneficiary of vaccines and medical support from New Delhi. Maldivians flocked in large numbers to India for education and professional training. Male’s first and biggest government hospital was a gift from India. Keeping the climate change concerns of the Maldives in mind, Indian negotiators have consistently ensured that Maldivian interests are not lost sight of.
In 1988, when there was a coup attempt to overthrow the then-president Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, he reached out to India (Operation Cactus). India stationed two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft on request from the Maldivian government to provide for medical evacuation, and search and rescue operations. The list can be expanded to reflect several actions by New Delhi in support of and response to Male’s requests.
Despite this, anti-India sentiment appeared to be growing in the island country that strategists failed to fully appreciate the depth and intensity of, even though it directly threatened India’s critical strategic interests.
Misreading of Male sentiments
Male’s wooing of China, especially during the Yameen tenure, was meant to aggravate India. New Delhi patronizingly dismissed it as an irritant and an aberration. Yameen’s arrest and imprisonment on corruption charges was viewed as vindication that Yameen’s pro-Beijing policies had been rejected and had few takers, if any. President Solih’s pro-India stance reinforced the view that New Delhi had nothing to fear and that the Maldives was firmly in its camp.
Perhaps the biggest misreading was of the resentment openly expressed through demonstrations outside the Indian embassy when it celebrated Yoga Day. Maldivians are intolerant of other religions. Former president Gayoom had once directed that no religion, other than Islam, should be permitted in the Maldives. The celebration of Yoga Day was, consequently, seen as being openly hostile and anti-Islam. Muizzu, a deeply devout Muslim, took advantage of this and knew he would find support among the many practicing Muslims in the Maldives. A reading of the election results shows that India was seen as a potential threat to Islam and needed to be distanced.
Muizzu was also confident that India’s reaction would be predictable because New Delhi adhered to the norms and tenets of diplomacy, unlike Beijing. Indeed, if China were its neighbour, instead of India, anti-China posturing would have seen a quick response through a military invasion and the possible annexation of the Maldives, despite the 1887 protection agreement Maldives has with the UK. New Delhi, on the other hand, in keeping with the traditions of democracy, would respect the will of the Maldivian people, even though it found the current developments unfairly confronting and deeply disturbing. Quiet and persuasive diplomacy has been a hallmark of Indian foreign policy and Muizzu took advantage of that.
What is particularly alarming is the absolute temerity with which three of Muizzu’s deputy ministers felt emboldened enough to make derogatory remarks against none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. This was unprecedented. While the ministers were quickly suspended, following protests from the Indian embassy, it was also a clear indication that Muizzu’s supporters had no hesitation in openly voicing their anti-India and hostile sentiments. The unnecessary statements by social celebrities and film actors from India only added fuel to the fire.
Challenge to win back trust
The Maldives has undergone a radical transformation. To see this as playing the India or China card would be a miscalculation. Indeed, the strategic narrative of what is going on is very different. It may be recalled that to ensure security and avoid being caught in a tug-of-war between Beijing and New Delhi, Solih decided to play for higher stakes by wooing the international community. Muizu will do the same and the Maldives will punch above its weight.
Consider, for instance, that only a handful of countries presently have a diplomatic presence in Male, India included. While China engages the Maldives through its embassy in Colombo, it is widely believed that the US is proposing to open an embassy in Male, which would trigger similar interest from other Western powers, especially Washington’s allies. This might well result in the emergence of the Maldives as a strategic player in the geopolitical landscape with different rivalries vying for their attention and more importantly, space. For India, this cannot be good news, especially with Kathmandu, Colombo and Dhaka not averse to Chinese presence. Indeed, it would be yet another encroachment in India’s sphere of influence triggering a ‘great game’ type of scenario.
The neighbourhood has been a matter of concern and priority focus for Indian foreign and security policy. Muizzu’s frostiness towards India is, undoubtedly, a setback for New Delhi. This is, however, the time for quiet diplomacy and a consistent process of reaching out to the government and people to allay fears and to help Maldivians realize that India has been a long and trusted ally. The process will be slow and painstaking. Given the genuineness with which India has always responded to Male, it is not impossible to win back trust.
(The author is a former Indian diplomat. Views are personal.)
do not realize this. You should continue your writing.
I'm sure, you've a huge readers' base already!
And i am satisfied reading your article.
However want to commentary on some common things, The web site style is ideal, the articles is actually excellent :
D. Excellent task, cheers
I really like all of the points you have made.
you download it from somewhere? A theme like yours with a few simple adjustements would really make my blog stand out.
Please let me know where you got your design. Bless
you
You're amazing! Thank you!
you are not understanding something fully, except this post offers pleasant understanding even.
The sketch is tasteful, your authored subject matter stylish.
nonetheless, you command get got an edginess over that you wish
be delivering the following. unwell unquestionably come more formerly again as exactly the same nearly very often inside case you shield this increase.
at this place.
I don't recognize who you might be but certainly you're going to a well-known blogger if
you are not already. Cheers!
I really like the knowledge you provide here and can't wait to
take a look when I get home. I'm surprised
at how fast your blog loaded on my phone .. I'm not
even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, excellent site!
I'm going to recommend this website!
while I was browsing on Yahoo for something else,
Anyways I am here now and would just like to say thank you for a fantastic post and a all round
exciting blog (I also love the theme/design), I
don't have time to read through it all at the
moment but I have bookmarked it and also included your RSS feeds, so
when I have time I will be back to read more, Please do keep up
the excellent work.
we all know media is a impressive source of data.
I had a quick question which I'd like to ask if you do not mind.
I was curious to know how you center yourself and clear
your thoughts prior to writing. I've had difficulty clearing my mind in getting my
thoughts out there. I truly do take pleasure in writing however it just seems like the first
10 to 15 minutes tend to be wasted simply just trying
to figure out how to begin. Any suggestions or hints?
Cheers!
reading this impressive piece of writing to improve my experience.
Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News?
I've been trying for a while but I never seem to get there!
Appreciate it
Short but very precise info… Thank you for sharing this one.
A must read article!
My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing many months of hard work due to no data backup.
Do you have any methods to stop hackers?
& theme. Did you build this site yourself? Please reply back as I'm looking to create my very own website and would like to find out where you got this from or
what the theme is called. Cheers!
I'm trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I'm not seeing very
good results. If you know of any please share.
Thank you!
to write more about this issue, it might not
be a taboo subject but generally people don't speak about
these topics. To the next! Cheers!!
a new scheme in our community. Your website provided us with useful info to work on. You've
done a formidable task and our whole neighborhood will probably
be grateful to you.
are talking about online. You actually know how to bring an issue to light and make
it important. More and more people have to check this out and
understand this side of the story. It's surprising you aren't more popular since you definitely possess the gift.
but after browsing through some of the post I realized it's new to
me. Anyhow, I'm definitely glad I found it and I'll be book-marking and checking back often!
site-building then i recommend him/her to go to see this website,
Keep up the fastidious job.
It was really informative. Your website is very helpful.
Thank you for sharing!
I'm definitely enjoying the information. I'm bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
Fantastic blog and terrific design and style.
is time to be happy. I've read this put up and if I could I desire
to suggest you some attention-grabbing issues or tips.
Maybe you can write subsequent articles referring to this
article. I desire to learn more things about it!
I hope to give something back and help others like you aided me.
I seriously appreciate people like you! Take care!!
familiarity every day by reading thes good posts.
This great article has truly peaked my interest.
I'm going to bookmark your blog and keep checking for new information about once a week.
I subscribed to your RSS feed too.
It looks like some of the text within your content are running off
the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them
as well? This may be a problem with my internet browser because I've had this happen previously.
Thank you
am reading now.
information.
am going to let know her.
We are a group of volunteers and starting a new initiative in a community in the same niche.
Your blog provided us valuable information to work on. You have done a outstanding job!
blog platform are you using for this website? I'm getting sick and tired of Wordpress because I've had issues with hackers and I'm looking at
options for another platform. I would be great if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.
When I look at your website in Safari, it looks
fine however, when opening in Internet Explorer, it's got some overlapping issues.
I just wanted to provide you with a quick
heads up! Besides that, great site!
and give you a shout out from Atascocita Tx!
Just wanted to say keep up the good work!
I mean, what you say is fundamental and everything.
But just imagine if you added some great visuals or video clips to give your posts more,
"pop"! Your content is excellent but with images and video clips, this website could undeniably be
one of the best in its niche. Amazing blog!
it up! I'll go ahead and bookmark your website
to come back in the future. Cheers
Post a Comment