On 11 March 2025, the Jaffar Express train travelling from Quetta to Peshawar (1600 kms), was hijacked by rebels of the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA). Its nine coaches were occupied by reportedly about 450 passengers including many Pakistani military personnel. BLA spokesperson Jeeyand Baloch released a statement claiming responsibility for the attack in which 214 personnel of Pakistan army and law enforcement agencies were killed. It is also reported that 155 civilian hostages were freed by the BLA, which lost 27 rebels.

On 16 March 2025, BLA issued another statement that its Majeed Brigade, the Fidayeen (self-sacrificers) unit of the BLA), targeted a Pakistani military convoy of eight buses near Rakhshan Mill on the RCD (Regional Cooperation for Development) Highway in Balochistan’s Nushki district. Ninety Pak army personnel were killed in this attack and one bus was completely destroyed.

In the 48 hours from 15 to 17 March 2025, Baloch rebels launched 57 attacks. These assaults by various modes such as sniper shots, raids with firing, improvised explosive device (IED) explosions, and suicide bombings, resulted in 16 people killed and 46 injured. 

Growing role of women insurgents

According to Strathea Policy Journal, BLA has admitted that many women have carried out suicide operations. Their participation signifies that the Baloch insurgency has transformed from being a tribal movement to a struggle of the educated and the middle class, open to women’s participation in combat roles. Earlier women’s role in insurgency was not to fight but later on women participated in some of these assaults and  were able to show the world the fearlessness and daring of Balochi women.

In April 2022, Shari Baloch, a 30-year-old mother of two, killed four people, including three Chinese teachers, in a suicide explosion at Karachi University’s Confucius Centre.

On 03 March 2025, a Balochi woman suicide bomber detonated herself near a military convoy in southwestern Balochistan province, killing at least one security person and injuring four others. This bombing was reportedly planned to targeted a commander of the Frontier Corps paramilitary force, but he was lucky to escape unharmed.

The extent of Balochi attacks spreading to 23 districts in three provinces and from urban centres to remote areas, as well as the coordinated nature of these attacks reveals a troubling escalation in security challenges for Pakistan and its military in particular. 

Genesis of the Baloch revolt

On 15 August 1947, the same day India got independence, the Khan of Kalat, Mir Ahmad Yar Khan, declared Kalat's independence, claiming it was a sovereign state not subject to automatic inclusion in Pakistan. However, on 28 March 1948 Balochistan acceded to Pakistan, becoming its largest province with 44% of its total area. Being resource-rich and least inhabited (comprising 5% of Pakistan’s population) it became a target for major exploitation with looting of its valuable natural resources, intimidation, abductions, massacres and deprivation of basic necessities like water, by the Pakistan Army. 

Balochi people known to be proud and rebellious rose to fight the first of five insurgent conflicts in 1948-50, followed by 1958–60, 1962–63 and 1973–1977 and the fifth which is an ongoing insurgency till date began in 2003. BLA , designated as a terrorist organisation by Pakistan, the US and UK, is the most widely known Baloch separatist group. Since 2000 it has launched numerous deadly attacks mostly against Pakistani army / security forces / police, journalists, civilians and education institutions. Other separatist groups include Lashkar-e-Balochistan,  Balochistan Liberation United Front, Baloch Students Organization and United Baloch Army.

In early 2005, the rape of a lady doctor, Shazia Khalid at the Sui gas facility and the comment by then Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf that the accused rapist, an officer identified only as Captain Hammad, was "not guilty", led to a violent uprising by the Bugti tribe, disrupting the supply of gas to much of the country for several weeks. In 2005, the Baluch political leaders Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti and Mir Balach Marri presented a 15-point agenda to the Pakistan government with demands which included greater control of the province's resources and a moratorium on the construction of military bases. 

In August 2006, Akbar Bugti,  then 79 years old and allegedly responsible for a series of deadly bomb blasts and a rocket attack on President Pervez Musharraf, was killed in fighting against the Pakistan Army in which seven officers and at least 60 soldiers were also killed. Musharraf’s refusal to act against the lady doctor’s rapist and the killing of Akbar Bugti marked a major step up in the Baloch insurgency.

Steady exploitation of Balochistn

Baloch human rights defenders and activists have persistently accused Pakistan’s security forces of harassment and use of excessive force. Protesters believe there have been thousands of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings, which the Pakistani authorities have denied.

BLA's struggle for independence kept increasing because despite Balochistan being rich in hydrocarbons and minerals, the Pakistani military and Punjabi elite kept exploiting the region's resources for their own benefit, resulting in at least 70% of its 15 million inhabitants living below the poverty line and marginalised.

From 2010 onwards, when the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and related infrastructure projects started, the Chinese presence in Balochistan began growing and greatly added to the exploitation. BLA strongly opposed the CPEC, which constitutes part of China's Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese-funded projects have sparked resentment from locals in parts of Pakistan who have benefited little from the developments. Due to its opposition to the Gwadar Port City, the BLA targeted Chinese nationals in a 2019 attack on the Pearl-Continental Hotel. After BLA attacks on Chinese citizens, Chinese officials pressed the Pakistani government to carry out additional strikes against the group. Dr Naseem Baloch, Chairman of the Baloch National Movement, has been raising consciousness about how the CPEC has forcibly displaced entire villages for constructing infrastructure projects like the Gwadar Port, while basic amenities such as clean drinking water, electricity, and healthcare have remained out of the local population's reach. His exposure has raised questions about the underlying purpose of the CPEC project, which offers significant strategic advantages for China. Spanning 3,000 kilometres, the corridor links Kashgar in China's Xinjiang Autonomous Region to Gwadar Port which has immense geostrategic value because of its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime choke point through which a significant portion of the world's oil passes. By securing control over Gwadar, China gains direct access to the Arabian Sea and allowing it to bypass the more vulnerable South China Sea and the Malacca Strait. 

Large sections of Gwadar city have been fenced off effectively restricting access to its own people. As Dr Baloch pointed out, this militarization is not just about controlling the Baloch people but also about securing Chinese interests in the region. Expectations of thousands of jobs, modernisation of infrastructure, and boosting of economic growth not only amounted to naught but displaced millions of indigenous people and destroyed their properties. China’s heavy investment in Pakistan has resulted in it initiating a huge amount of infrastructure projects including transportation networks, special economic zones and energy projects as part of its multi-billion-dollar CPEC project.

While it was reported on 12 March 2025 that BLA has formed an alliance with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), this collaboration has been ongoing for some time and has become a major security challenge for Pakistan. These insurgents are now far better equipped with weapons including AK pattern assault rifles, M16s and SVD Dragunov sniper rifles/PSL marksman rifles, many of which were captured from Afghan security forces by the Afghan Taliban, which is closely linked to the TTP. Islamic State Khorasan is also reported to be connected to them. 

Pakistan Army, which has for long been known for often ‘outsourcing’ rather than fighting itself, is facing difficulties in countering this new threat across multiple regions. The way the army has been targeted in 58 attacks from 11 till 17 March 2025 is clear proof of how poor the great ISI’s intelligence and how weak the army’s reaction capability have become in facing BLA’s well planned and bold attacks.

Dire warning for nation's future

It may not be wrong to state that after the spate of very fierce assaults by the Balochis, with the probable support of TTP and Afghan Taliban, Pakistan is faced with a crisis of existence. According to MEMRI (Middle East Media Research Institute) Daily Brief of 21 February 2025, “The time for Balochistan's freedom has arrived. A moment like that of 1971, which led to the creation of Bangladesh out of Pakistan, is here again. Balochistan is now just two steps away from gaining its independence from Pakistan. However, Pakistan's military and ISI still do not want to admit it openly……Speaking at a recent session of the Pakistani National Assembly, Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman, a leading Pakistani politician and cleric who is the president of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, declared: "I swear by my heart that, at this moment there are five to,  seven groups in Balochistan who, if they retaliate, will be granted independence and the country will break once again."

Fazl-ur-Rehman has always supported the Pakistan Army against the Baloch movement.  Yet, in his speech, Fazl-ur-Rehman said that whatever was happening in Balochistan did not portend well for Pakistan's future. "If districts in Balochistan announce liberation, the UN will accept their independence and Pakistan will fall," he warned.

(The author is a strategic affairs analyst and former Defence Ministry and Indian Army spokesperson, Views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at wordsword02@gmail.com)