As the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan speeds up, Pakistan is hoping for major strategic and economic gains through the Taliban which it has supported and armed for the past two decades.

The hardline Sunni Islamist group has already taken control of a substantial part of Afghanistan. In anticipation of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) extending into Afghanistan and beyond to Central Asia, Pakistan is focusing on improving relations with Central Asian Republics especially Uzbekistan. The Taliban has secured the northern borders of Afghanistan, as a prelude to which hundreds of Afghan soldiers reportedly fled to Tajikistan.  

Gloating over the prospects, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan on June 30 denounced as “idiocy” Pakistan’s past policy of becoming a frontline state in the US-led war against terrorism in Afghanistan, blaming the policy for the persistent security and economic challenges faced by Islamabad.

The premier told Parliament: “We can be, and will always remain, partners in peace with America. We can never be partners in conflict anymore”. Imran Khan also ruled out the possibility of providing Pakistani bases to the US military – post the planned withdrawal of troops - for counterterrorism strikes in Afghanistan.

In January 2021, Pakistan media had prominently highlighted the statement of US Secretary of Defense General Lloyd J Austin to the US Senate Armed Services Committee during his confirmation hearing for the post. General Austin said he believed that “continuing to build a relationship with Pakistan’s military will provide openings for the United States and Pakistan to cooperate on key issues.”

Austin had also told the panel that US President Joe Biden’s administration sees Pakistan as an “essential partner in any peace process in Afghanistan. If confirmed, I will encourage regional support from neighbors like Pakistan, while also deterring regional actors from serving as spoilers to the Afghanistan peace process”.

TIPS list jolt for Pakistan

Pakistan has been following the policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound pretty successfully till now and was sanguine it will continue to be favored by the US till it received a jolt recently.

The US State Department has placed Pakistan in its annual list of Trafficking in Persons (TIP) under the Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA) which prohibits assistance under the following authorities - international military education-training; foreign military financing; excess defense articles;  peacekeeping operations, and licenses for direct commercial sales of military equipment.

Pakistan has protested vehemently against the US action. Pakistan’s Foreign Office said: “We categorically reject the unsubstantiated and baseless inclusion of Pakistan in the ‘Child Soldiers Prevention Act (CSPA) List’." It asked the US to share "credible information" on cases involving TIP as well as on allegations about support to armed groups using child soldiers. Pakistan has called upon US authorities concerned to review the list.

The humorous part is the country’s foreign office saying Pakistan does not support any non-state armed group or any entity recruiting or using child soldiers and that Pakistan's efforts in fighting non-state armed groups including terrorist entities are "well recognized".

Post troop withdrawal scenario

Having commanded the US Central Command, General Austin would have been privy to all the activities within Pakistan. It is just that the US was constrained to look the other way because the logistics supply to US-NATO troops in Afghanistan went through Pakistan and, due to this constraint, America hoped against hope that Pakistan would help bring the Taliban into the reconciliation process for ushering peace in Afghanistan.

Not only has Pakistan failed miserably in this, but its efforts in sync with China have also been focused on throwing the American troops out of Afghanistan.  

Pakistan fails to realize that with US troops exiting Afghanistan, Washington will no longer overlook the generation of terrorism and recruitment of child soldiers by Pakistan, especially when it is wedded to Beijing against the US.

In his article Balkanizing Pakistan: A Collective National Security Strategy wrote Michael Hughes on May 25, 2011: “Nine years, nearly USD 300 billion and 1900 dead coalition soldiers later, the US has officially verified that the entire war effort has been focused on the wrong side of the mountains….

“The most popular approach to fragmentation is to break off and allow Afghanistan to absorb Pakistan’s North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), which would unite the Pashtun tribes. In addition, the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh would become independent sovereign states, leaving Punjab as a standalone entity.”

Notwithstanding the above, one can logically assume there would be more US sanctions against Pakistan with the quagmire in Afghanistan getting aggravated following Islamabad’s support to Taliban-Haqqanis. Also, Washington will be free of its compulsions to appease Pakistan once US troops have exited Afghanistan.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. The views expressed are personal)