At the heart of the rapidly souring India-US relations over the threat by President Donald Trump to impose 25% tariffs on New Delhi is a fundamental misreading of the notion of American friendship by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his advisers.

American society is generally given to hyperbole and expressions of accentuated superlatives even to describe things and situations in life that do not rise anywhere close to deserving them. It bears remembering that this is a society that casually uses “great” to describe any and all things. There are those who describe even bowel movement as great.

Of course, great in its pure sense means something or someone whose eminence or quality is far above average, distinguished by features truly out of the ordinary.

With that as the backdrop Modi and his advisers should have known that Trump’s seeming effusions about “my friend, Prime Minister Modi” were not necessarily in the spirit in which emotional Indians interpret. There is a cultural disconnect at play here.

Weaponising of Tariffs 

By its very nature, U.S. presidency is driven by a sense of manifest destiny, and its occupants have always believed in American exceptionalism. Their professions of equal friendship with world leaders are more often than not a pose. They have no bearing on their policy.

In any case for President Trump, tariffs have been a long-held conviction for decades before he entered politics. Rightly or wrongly, he unassailably thinks that tariffs are a decisive weapon to achieve all manners of strategic and diplomatic goals. As it turns out, many countries have yielded to that logic out of their own particular sense of vulnerability, the European Union being the latest one. That in turn has only made Trump even more convinced about his approach.

Overreading of Friendship 

It is possible that at some level he does regard Modi as his friend but that is only in a limited sense. At best, it is a qualified friendship. If it stands in the way of his running of U.S. affairs or accomplishing personal and political goals, it would be cast aside without any qualms just as it would be revived if it was determined to be utilitarian.

In contrast, the impression that Modi has given over the last 11 years as prime minister in dealing with world leaders is that he gets taken in by their public poses. He comes across as someone who thinks he has that special knack to charm and disarm his interlocutors. He often displays certain unseemly eagerness and familiarity as was evident during his recent interactions with Britain’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Memes of Modi practically grabbing Starmer’s hands have been doing the rounds of social media.

A hug, even an awkward or forced one, between Modi and any world leader, particularly Trump will have no bearing on his policy however much he continues to refer to both India and the prime minister as his friend. At best, it is a lip-deep expression that so many Indians, both here in America and in India, have treated as an article of faith. It is anything but that.

Beyond the hard economic impact of the 25% tariff on India what needs to be remembered is that this is going to be the approach and attitude out of Washington until the next presidential election in 2028. New Delhi will have to make a choice of whether to calibrate its response in a pragmatic and unemotional way that does not significantly upend the relationship or take a loftily principled stand in defense of its civilizational pride.

Tough Call for Modi 

For any prime minister, this is a tough call. It is particularly so for one who invested so much political capital in the U.S. president and indiscriminately so. It is entirely conceivable that a deal will be reached that broadly grants India’s interests even while ceding Washington some ground. Unlike China, India is not in a position to take a devil-may-care position. However, those who understand the intricacies of global trade say that the prime minister can still stand up to the president even as he directs the country’s exporters to tap other markets.

According to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), "U.S. total goods trade with India were an estimated $129.2 billion in 2024. U.S. goods exports to India in 2024 were $41.8 billion, up 3.4 percent ($1.4 billion) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from India totaled $87.4 billion in 2024, up 4.5 percent ($3.7 billion) from 2023. The U.S. goods trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2024, a 5.4 percent increase ($2.4 billion) over 2023."

Trump wants that deficit gone which would require India to import much more from America. Washington’s insistence on opening up India’s agriculture and dairy sectors is fraught with profound political consequence for Modi whose relationship with the country’s farmers has at best been tenuous.

The imposition of tariffs in the midst of the monsoon session of parliament, where Modi is already embattled over the issue of his handling of the conflict with Pakistan and subsequent ceasefire, has been particularly inopportune for him.

In contrast with India, Trump has imposed 19% tariffs on Pakistan and has expressed some sanguine enthusiasm about doing business with it. Of course, US-Pakistan trade relations are minor compared to India. According to the USTR, "U.S. total goods trade with Pakistan were an estimated $7.3 billion in 2024. U.S. goods exports to Pakistan in 2024 were $2.1 billion, up 4.4 percent ($90.9 million) from 2023. U.S. goods imports from Pakistan totaled $5.1 billion in 2024, up 4.9 percent ($238.7 million) from 2023. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $3 billion in 2024, a 5.2 percent increase ($147.9 million) over 2023."

(The writer is a Chicago-based journalist and analyst. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at mcsix@outlook.com)