Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s pathetic exhortations for talks with India in a recent interview with Al Arabiya TV were like the cries of a cat soaked in kerosene. Ghulam Abbas Shah tweeted Shehbaz Sharif’s message saying: “My message to the Prime Minister of India @narendramodi is that let us sit down on the table and have serious and since talks to resolve burning issues like Kashmir.”  

But Sharif soon realized the consequences of going against his army that calls every shot in Pakistan. So his office quickly qualified his statement by saying there can be no talks with India unless Article 370 (of the Indian Constitution that gave the erstwhile state limited autonomy) is restored in Kashmir.   

Sharif also forgot that putting henna in his hair cannot change the stripes of the zebra. The army has ruled Pakistan since its birth, directly or indirectly, and the very basis of its stranglehold over Pakistan is animosity with India. Besides, the survival of Pakistani politicians and judiciary depends on their acquiescence to the army. Pakistani media admits the military-judiciary combine has taken the polity and bureaucracy hostage in Pakistan.

Befuddled Sharif talked about learning lessons from “three wars” with India. But he not only forgot Pakistan’s 1947-48 invasion of Jammu & Kashmir but also the ‘thousand cut’ policy of his political forebears because of which India has consistently said that terrorism and talks cannot go together.    

Pakistan's reality check

Sharif said that Pakistan does not want to waste resources on bombs and ammunition, which is interesting at a time when Pakistan is sending containers full of these to Ukraine in an effort to appease the West. Also, by saying, “we are nuclear powers, armed to the teeth, and if God forbid a war breaks out, who will live to tell what happened?" 

Sharif’s rant about human rights violations grossly ignores the continuing genocide in Balochistan and human rights violations in what is Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK).

Weak in history and scared stiff of his army, Sharif would not acknowledge that the accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India by the then maharaja is legal and on record.  The only issue left, therefore, is for Pakistan to intimate its timetable to vacate POK. His predecessor, Pervez Musharraf, even tried the drama of a plebiscite citing the 1948 UN Resolution on Kashmir. But this resolution had the categorical pre-condition that Pakistan withdraws all her security forces from the territory of J&K. Pakistan did the opposite by inducting more forces, killing that resolution.

But Musharraf still connived with the British and persuaded Libyan Muammar Gaddafi’s elder son to fund a plebiscite. But results of a first-ever poll of both sides of the Line of Control in J&K conducted by the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), UK in conjunction with King’s College during 2009-2010 brought out that 98 percent of people in J&K do not wish to be part of Pakistan and 50 percent of people in POK do not wish to remain with Pakistan. Now the latter percentage has also changed drastically in favour of India with a series of public protests in POK demanding integration with India.

Economic mess

Pakistan’s economy is in a very poor state. With flood-related disruptions to agricultural production, inflation is projected to rise to around 23 percent in the financial year 2023. As of January 6, forex reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan plunged to USD 4.34 billion - just enough to cover three weeks of imports. Sharif has been pleading with the IMF for more loans and the repayment schedule.

Aid is coming to Pakistan for the devastation caused by floods after the call given by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. But how much of it will be swindled by the politicians and the army and how much will be diverted towards terrorism is anybody’s guess.  Countries like China, Saudi Arabia, and UAE are extending financial help but these financial packages are not instant bank transfers; these will be spread over a few years.

ISI's delusions and reality

Robert Kaplan wrote in his book ‘The Revenge of Geography’: “An Afghanistan that falls to Taliban sway threatens to create a succession of radicalized Islamic societies from the Indian-Pakistani border to Central Asia. This would, in effect, mean a greater Pakistan, giving Pakistan’s ISI the ability to create a clandestine empire composed of the likes of Jallaluddin Haqqani, Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, and the Lashkar-e-Taiba, able to confront India in the manner that Hezbollah and Hamas confront Israel”. 

But the elaborate plan of the Pakistani military hierarchy to engineer “strategic depth” in Afghanistan has backfired badly. Shehbaz Sharif is in a pitiable position – a wobbly zebra kowtowing to the army; Imran Khan continuing to stoke political problems; pockets are empty; energy crisis is aggravating; and snakes bred to attain strategic depth are climbing his legs demanding rule of Sharia.

(The author is an Indian Army veteran. Views are personal.)