Macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability in South Asia are deeply interconnected and increasingly fragile. While the region continues to grow rapidly, structural weaknesses and external vulnerabilities pose significant risks. Insights from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank highlight that sustaining stability will require improved revenue mobilisation, credible fiscal consolidation, structural economic reforms and reduced exposure to external shocks.
South Asia is therefore not facing one climate migration crisis. It is facing many at once. Coastal displacement in Bangladesh and the Maldives is different from mountain displacement in Nepal and Bhutan. Flood displacement in Pakistan is different from drought-linked distress in Afghanistan. India contains almost every version of the crisis within one country. Sri Lanka shows how island and hill communities can be hit together. Yet the policy response remains fragmented.
Pakistan is invited to the world's negotiating table. But a mediator's power is not spoken; it is demonstrated. A nation for whose people fuel is unaffordable, whose businesses are collapsing and whose independence is limited by 75 IMF conditions is not resilient. Until cheap energy is a strategic priority, until industrial decline is halted, until economic independence is restored, Pakistan's peacemaking pretensions will be hollow.
Economic ties are significant for both West Bengal and Bangladesh due to cultural linkages and geographic proximity. West Bengal acts as a gateway for Bangladeshis seeking access to medical facilities, education, and business opportunities. Significant trade also takes place through land ports. Hence, the first response of the BNP-led government would likely be to minimize any chances of a downturn in ties. New Delhi, too, will continue to prioritize Bangladesh, especially at a time when Dhaka has outlined defense modernization plans with likely Chinese help.
Neither SLPP nor SJB has a major reform agenda to breakout from Sri Lanka’s endemic economic problems, which are deeply rooted in the country’s inability to earn enough foreign inflow to sustain itself and to bring in sound fiscal policies, writes Indika Hettiarachchi for South Asia Monitor
The question will be what kind of “consequences” the US can impose on those it considers veering off from the democratic path Biden and his supporters set, writes Arul Louis for South Asia Monitor
India’s approach towards Afghanistan should be dictated by its economic and strategic interests and it needs to judge the Taliban by its actions while being flexible enough to leave room for numerous divergences, writes Tridivesh Singh Maini for South Asia Monitor
For India and Indians, one of the most enduring Afghan connections that developed, rather accidentally, was in the form of “Afghan Snow”, the first beauty crème, writes Mahendra Ved for South Asia Monitor
After all, how can a major political and military force like India stay on the sidelines when the US, the Chinese, of course, the Pakistanis, and even the Russians begin talks, open business and prepare for collaborations with the Taliban? writes Jagdish Rattanani for South Asia Monitor
Amid the thorny political and diplomatic issues, sports can act as the much-needed balm to remove distrust and promote understanding between India and Pakistan, writes Sirshendu Panth for South Asia Monitor
A Taliban-run Afghanistan that eschews support for international terrorism and global Islam and follows a Sharia regime like that of US ally Riyadh – in effect an oil-less Saudi Arabia – and, as it happened this week, both cooperating to fight common enemies may be Biden's dream scenario, writes Arul Louis for South Asia Monitor
The Afghan conflict has already turned shelterless a massive number of people, and it will not end until a morally inclined humanitarian intervention takes place, write Azeemah Saleem and MD. Imtiyaz for South Asia Monitor
Implications for India are more worrisome since the Taliban now has overt support of China and Russia apart from its patron Pakistan, writes Brig Deepak Sethi (retd) for South Asia Monitor
Among many commonalities, South Asian nations have a large hi tech-savvy young population, and the asset management companies should tap this section to deepen mutual fund penetration significantly, writes Ram Krishna Sinha for South Asia Monitor
If asset monetization is undertaken with strict oversight, it can be the most effective remedy to dispel the pervading gloom of an ailing economy, writes N Chandra Mohan for South Asia Monitor
Beijing will quickly establish a ruthlessly transactional and pragmatic relationship to exploit Afghanistan’s rich mineral resources as well expand its much-cherished Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from Pakistan, writes Mayank Chhaya for South Asia Monitor
Finally, the US has given the biggest boost to global terrorism - and will eventually have to face the consequences. A coupling between the ISIS and Taliban should not be considered an impossibility, writes Lt Gen P. C. Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
Biden's speech had an eerie echo of former President George Bush's September 20, 2001, address to Congress when he set the course for what became the 20-year war, writes Arul Louis for South Asia Monitor
If a free trade agreement is signed, then only the sky would be the limit for Bangladesh-Sri Lanka business relations, writes MD Pathik Hasan for South Asia Monitor
