India and Bangladesh's 30-year-old Ganges water deal is set to expire by 2026. Deposed Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina reached a tacit accord with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on its prompt renewal during her recent visit to New Delhi in June. The Ganga treaty, which was signed in 1996, opened up a new course for regional cooperation between Bangladesh and India that has social, political, and economical significance. This path should be renewed for both national development and the water security of their own basins. However, the recent political unrest in Bangladesh raises important concerns about the renewal of the Ganges water deal and could have major repercussions.

Bangladesh receives almost 91% of its water from India, which shares 54 transboundary rivers as a lower riparian country. Among them is the Ganga, a transboundary river that is extremely important. It also plays a role in the economics and development of the people who live along the river, contributing to the country's growth as a whole. Since the Ganges water treaty is not a fixed agreement and was negotiated over 25 years starting in 1971, it is a highly sensitive treaty. 

The hydro-relationship over the renewal of Ganges water treaty between India and Bangladesh may have become static in light of the recent political upheaval in Bangladesh and India's stance on water, resulting in temporization, which has an impact on the lives of the riverine communities.

Key aspects 

The treaty has several key components to it.

Riparian hierarchy: The supply side's primary responsibility is to maintain an adequate water flow, which is often regulated by the upstream, making geographic location within a river basin a crucial component in water management. India is upstream in the Ganga, and its control over the watershed upstream greatly affects the adequate flow downstream. If there is no agreement on water sharing, upstream may become a water hegemon. Therefore, India's interests may conflict with Bangladesh's recent domestic political situation in creating roadblocks for the treaty's renewal.

Trust: Another important component of water management is trust. Bangladesh's Awami League-led government has been India's reliable ally in the history of water. As a result, Bangladesh and India have reached broad understanding over the sharing of river waters. Political uncertainty in Bangladesh, where anti-Awami League and India-sceptic forces are on the ascendant,  mistrust can create delays in renewal, which negatively impacts the communities residing along riverbanks whose livelihoods are entirely dependent on Ganges water.

Water Democracy: In South Asia, water democracy does not exist since the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses was not ratified by India as a riparian partner. India favors a more bilateral than a multilateral policy on water sharing. Therefore, without amicable bilateral relations, water agreement becomes unpredictable. Thus, the renewal of the Ganges water sharing agreement hinges on the bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and India.

 Anti-India Sentiment: A key roadblock to successful water ties between India and Bangladesh is anti-India prejudice. The water ties between India and Bangladesh had significantly improved because of New Delhi's long-standing trust in the Awami League-led government and its leadership. However, in the wake of the political downfall of the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina, anti-India sentiments have grown considerably, creating instability and potentially harming long-term water ties with India.

State of bilateral ties

Thus, the renewal of the Ganges water treaty is much more dependent on the bilateral relations between the two countries. Under the present conditions, there are politically driven ideological differences between both countries that may carry adverse consequences for the Ganga treaty. Irrespective of the political situaition, both nations should be mature enough to work together for their own basin development and water security to safeguard the ecosystem of the basin and life and livelihood of its riparian communities. 

 (The author is a Ph.D. Candidate, Department of International Relations, South Asian University, New Delhi. Views are personal. He can be contacted at anupkumarsaha@students.sau.ac.in)