Russia and China may have some divergence in their long-term interests in Afghanistan and the region--despite both having a shared aim of getting the US out of Afghanistan--as Moscow’s larger concerns remain currently “muted”, Shyam Saran, India's former foreign secretary, said, suggesting New Delhi needs to keep its ties with Russia in a very "good shape" due to potential  correspondence of interests in the future. 

“The development in Afghanistan is a major turning point as far as the regional order is concerned. And, eventually, it could have an impact--not necessarily--on the global order itself,” Saran said at a panel discussion titled “Post-Taliban development in Afghanistan” organized by the India International Centre, New Delhi in collaboration with South Asia Monitor last week. 

Terming the Chinese push in the region “quite remarkable”, he said, it would certainly play a greater role in the region. However, Russia as the traditional security guarantor to Central Asian countries, including those bordering Afghanistan, remains concerned. “Russia’s concerns are currently muted and it may surface again,” he added. 

On the impact of this development in India, Saran said that India was currently “sandwiched” between emboldened militants and unstable situations in its eastern border with China

Unlike the 1990s, Central Asian countries, despite their continued concerns, are currently engaging with the Taliban, Suhasini Haider, who is the diplomatic editor at The Hindu, said during the discussion. Trade and transit routes in the wider region remain a key driver of their engagement with the Taliban. Despite that, no country has yet recognized the Taliban government. 

“India stands today--with one Chabahar exception--to be cut out of entire trade and transit networks to its west...some amount of thought has to go into as what is going to be India’s engagement with Pakistan over the next few years,” she said, suggesting New Delhi should engage with these developing trade routes.  

Saran also suggested that New Delhi should find ways to reach out to Afghans as India in the last two decades was among very few countries that managed to generate enormous goodwill which, he feared, could currently get dissipated. 

On India's policy, Suhasini said, “I think India must have its own voice. ‘Wait and Watch’ can’t be an official policy.” India may need to engage in some sort with Pakistan in this regard, she said.

Amar Sinha, a former Indian envoy to Afghanistan,  gave a different assessment of India’s “wait & watch” policy.  

“Our wait and watch policy should not be doing nothing. But, basically giving time to the Taliban time to self-destruct itself or this regime in Kabul," he said, adding "our policy going forward when we engage should be precisely this that the longevity of this regime is as short-lived as possible ” 

Terming the Taliban an aberration in the context of Afghanistan, Sinha said it was a misconception to consider them as a “normal template” for Afghanistan. The group even lacked legitimacy among common Afghans, who see them, especially “Haqqanis”, as someone imposed by Pakistan, he added. 

On China, he said, its refusal to attend the regional security dialogue organized by India on  Afghanistan has exposed “its limitation in terms of the lack of independent policy towards Afghanistan. They are relying on Pakistan.” However, Saran suggested the Chinese won’t buy Pakistan’s assurances in the context of Afghanistan. 

On the broader regional consensus, Sinha said the region is of the view  that “Whatever the Taliban says, they  can’t be trusted--they are not gonna fulfill anything.” He further added, “it is likely to lead to a civil war situation due to internal differences within the Taliban and the growing grievances in the Afghan society.” 

Original Taliban--those earlier sitting in Doha--are all marginalized in Kabul, he said, adding “perhaps, it is the first time that the so-called Afghans from the east of the Durand line (read Haqqanis who lived most their lives in Pakistan) are controlling Kabul--which has never happened in the Afghan history.” 

Cmdre C Uday Bhaskar (retd), of South Asia Monitor, who moderated the discussion, added that Afghanistan was on the brink of a humanitarian crisis given the dire shortage of food and medicines and this is a potential tragedy that should be averted by swift external aid and intervention (SAM).