Right now, China is in a similar situation as Hitler’s Germany in the late 1930s, while the US is in a similar situation as the declining British and French Empires. Recently, China has occupied a few square kilometers of India’s land in Ladakh. Despite having no legal basis of historic rights over South China, China has been able to build artificial islands and get hold of nearly the entire South China Sea as none of its neighbors is in a position to confront China militarily.

It will be in the interest of the US and other Western countries to not let India down against China because if India goes down against China, China will be an unstoppable military power not only in Asia but in the entire world as the US is now a declining power and not in a position to take down China on its own.

Apart from this, the US is right now in a mood to stop China from claiming the superpower status. If India grabs some Chinese land on the vast border, China would either seek the bargaining table or retaliation, otherwise, it will lose its face which will certainly lead to a wider war. As the US these days always has a couple of Aircraft Carriers stationed nearby China’s artificially created islands in the South China Sea, China will think twice before going full force with India. If there is a war between India and China, Trump will certainly take the plunge against China to boost his election chances as right now his poll numbers are way behind his Democratic Party rival Joe Biden. China will not get a friendly person in the US even if Biden wins in the next November Presidential election, as per him the Chinese president is a thug.

As China is clearly the aggressor, her actions will give a chance to the US and the Western countries to impose economic sanctions for the next several decades to set back the Chinese economy. For mishandling of the Coronavirus pandemic by the Chinese government, some top US officials and Republican Senators have talked about canceling part of its debt obligations to China A war between the US and China will give them an opportunity to cancel those debts and seize Chinese assets, globally as enemy property, especially the massive trillion-dollar One Belt One Road (OBOR) investment, similar to what the Allied Powers did to Hitler's Germany post World War II. It will be China's folly to fight a protracted war with both India and the US because a defeated China might result in independent countries like Hong Kong, Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. In a protracted war, Vietnam, Japan, and Taiwan might also jump in against China.

From India's point of view, although this war will take a heavy economic toll, it will drastically reduce the defense expenditure for the next several decades as after the collapse of the Chinese army, Pakistan's all-weather friend, Pakistan will no more be in the position to threaten India in the way they have been doing for the last several decades. Also, the neighboring countries of India are falling into the China camp one after another. This month Nepal, the only Hindu country in the world, has now become anti-India and pro-China. Three of India's neighbors, namely Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, are now in China's camp. After the withdrawal of the US army, it is just a matter of time that the Taliban, with the help of the Pakistani Army, would take over Afghanistan. Bangladesh, a Muslim majority country, is pro-India only as long as Sheikh Hasina is the president. The Maldives is also not a permanent ally of India.

In addition, countries like Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and West European countries would certainly like to contribute financially towards India’s war efforts against China. They, too, would like to stop China’s unjust bullying towards its neighbors in the same way as they funded the US war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in 1991. For the 1991 War, the US received from Kuwait - $16 billion, Saudi Arabia - $16.8 billion, Japan - $10 billion, Germany - $6.4 billion, UAE - $4 billion, and South Korea - $251 million. The US was able to use its massive arms and ammunitions against Iraq, and in order to replenish its armed forces a lot of jobs were created in the defense industry. This huge foreign funding helped the US in jump-starting its economy which was in recession at that time. As shown in Chart below, 1991 was the only year when the US had a positive Balance of Payment (BOP) for the last 50 years. Therefore, Japan and Taiwan would certainly give hundreds of billions of dollars to India to fight the war against China.

(The writer is an author and socio-economic thinker. The article first appeared in http://www.susmitkumar.net/)

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Operation Barbarossa was the code name for the ill-fated 1941 Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union which ultimately led to collapse of his Third Reich.]