If Jamaat comes to power it will likely begin with populist moves such as anti-corruption drives, predicts Ahmedur Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi writer and editor who has been living in Norway since surviving a 2015 attack. He says he fears mobilisation of religious groups to push for declaring Bangladesh an Islamic republic and enforce Sharia law. The result would be shrinking freedoms for women, curbs on cultural life, and serious threats to freedom of expression, religious minorities, and secular political and cultural spaces.
The threat from ISIS-K is real and growing. A resurgence in Pakistan would have serious implications for the broader region, including India. The danger is compounded if Pakistan once again attempts to clandestinely redirect ISIS-K towards Kashmir. What may appear as an isolated terror incident is, in fact, part of a wider pattern that demands sustained vigilance. Pakistan’s internal security instability risks creating openings for cross-border terror movements, potentially hardening new militant modules aimed at India and beyond.
The optimistic view is that the “Twin Election” will force a compromise. The referendum provides a mandate for reform that even a BNP government cannot ignore. The “July Charter”, if ratified, creates checks on executive power that did not exist before. The students, even if they end up on the opposition benches, will form a moral pressure group that cannot be easily crushed. The cynical view is that Bangladesh is merely swapping a monopoly for a duopoly, or worse, a monopoly of a different colour.
All signs point to a BNP victory. In a competitive contest without the Awami League, the BNP’s organisational depth and electoral reach make it the frontrunner. Yet victory alone may not translate into authority. The absence of the Awami League, the continued influence of Sheikh Hasina from exile, the rise of Islamist alternatives, and the central role of unelected institutions mean that any new government will inherit a fractured polity. The 2026 election may revive the BNP’s fortunes, but it will not by itself heal Bangladesh’s democratic wounds.
There is growing realization within the government and diplomatic community that India stands to lose a great deal in allowing Islamophobia to spread within India and among Indians abroad and some nimble diplomacy is required to change perceptions, writes Nilova Roy Chaudhury for South Asia Monitor
Indian pharma’s soft power has, no doubt, opened up possibilities for foreign policy in the neighbourhood, writes N Chandra Mohan for South Asia Monitor
The terrific trio of Modi, Macron and XI should meet over videoconference and announce WAVE. They have the capability and potential to make history, writes Rajendra Shende for South Asia Monitor
What really jumps up from the plethora of information floating around is the lack of preparedness and lack of governmental attention to health care, especially in the overcrowded South Asian region, writes Sreeradha Datta for South Asia Monitor
Irrespective of whether they succeed in convincing the foreigners, the reactions in India to the minister’s assertion will range from amusement to derision, writes Amulya Ganguli for South Asia Monitor
This abundant food-in-the-granary exigency will unfold even as a large number of Indians are grappling with hunger pangs and are stuck in varying degrees of deprivation, writes C Uday Bhaskar for South Asia Monitor
The wider consequences of the agreement between the US and Taliban remain ambiguous, writes Iqbal Dawari for South Asia Monitor
The Indian government’s decision to pass and enact, in December 2019, the Citizenship Amendment Act, naming Bangladesh as a country where minorities are persecuted, had an extremely negative fallout in that country, writes Nilova Roy Chaudhury for South Asia Monitor
India is poised for an all-out war and, like in any war, this is not the time for partisanship. It’s in this scenario that Modi will find himself at a fork in the road, writes E.D. Mathew for South Asia Monitor
Indeed, if anyone is serious about the plight of the Rohingyas and is looking for sustainable solutions to the crisis, then the person ought to put her gaze not on Bangladesh but on Myanmar, writes Imtiaz Ahmed for South Asia Monitor
When the first COVID-19 case came to public notice in India in January this year, questions in concerned quarters have been raised as to why did it take almost two months to prepare for lockdown and that too with a notice of a few hours to leave many citizens unprepared and more so the migrant and the poor, writes Partha Pratim Mitra for South Asia Monitor
RSS remains quite optimistic about the way the new world order is going to pan out post-COVID-19. It feels that it is the beginning of a new golden era for India, writes Arun Anand for South Asia Monitor
The consequence of continuing the lockdown, even under present conditions, could be grave, as the self-employed people like vendors, plumbers, auto drivers, small automobile workshops etc. as well as poor senior citizens, visually impaired/differently-abled people, who are millions in number all over the country, would be badly hit, writes N S Venkataraman for South Asia Monitor
The legitimacy of a regional organization like SAARC and others alike will be uncertain if strategic measures and procedures to control COVID-19 do not work in South Asia, writes Maj. Gen Binoj Basnyat (retd) for South Asia Monitor
No one can predict what the trajectory of communal relations will be when it is clear that so much will change in the post-corona period not only with regard to Hindu-Muslim ties, but in every other field that the scene in India will be quite different from what it is today writes Amulya Ganguli for the South Asia Monitor
