If Jamaat comes to power it will likely begin with populist moves such as anti-corruption drives, predicts Ahmedur Chowdhury, a Bangladeshi writer and editor who has been living in Norway since surviving a 2015 attack. He says he fears mobilisation of religious groups to push for declaring Bangladesh an Islamic republic and enforce Sharia law. The result would be shrinking freedoms for women, curbs on cultural life, and serious threats to freedom of expression, religious minorities, and secular political and cultural spaces.
The threat from ISIS-K is real and growing. A resurgence in Pakistan would have serious implications for the broader region, including India. The danger is compounded if Pakistan once again attempts to clandestinely redirect ISIS-K towards Kashmir. What may appear as an isolated terror incident is, in fact, part of a wider pattern that demands sustained vigilance. Pakistan’s internal security instability risks creating openings for cross-border terror movements, potentially hardening new militant modules aimed at India and beyond.
The optimistic view is that the “Twin Election” will force a compromise. The referendum provides a mandate for reform that even a BNP government cannot ignore. The “July Charter”, if ratified, creates checks on executive power that did not exist before. The students, even if they end up on the opposition benches, will form a moral pressure group that cannot be easily crushed. The cynical view is that Bangladesh is merely swapping a monopoly for a duopoly, or worse, a monopoly of a different colour.
All signs point to a BNP victory. In a competitive contest without the Awami League, the BNP’s organisational depth and electoral reach make it the frontrunner. Yet victory alone may not translate into authority. The absence of the Awami League, the continued influence of Sheikh Hasina from exile, the rise of Islamist alternatives, and the central role of unelected institutions mean that any new government will inherit a fractured polity. The 2026 election may revive the BNP’s fortunes, but it will not by itself heal Bangladesh’s democratic wounds.
It would not be surprising if American troops are also attacked after part withdrawal has taken place, with blame, apportioned to Islamic State, as was done in the case of the recent attack on Kabul gurdwara, while China and Pakistan laughed all the way home, writes Lt Gen P. C. Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
The census data of 2011 reflects that the four states - Uttar Pradesh (UP), Bihar, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh -account for 50 percent of India's total inter-state migrants, write Suresh Kumar Patel, Abhishek Kumar & Noorul Quamer for South Asia Monitor
Launch of China Virus/COVID-19 - which only India had guts to name biological weapon - had decades of preparation to deny/mitigate global response, writes Lt Gen P. C. Katoch (retd) for South Asia Monitor
The Rohingya refugees staying inside and outside camps in Bangladesh and India are worth mentioning in the South Asian context. Their already slum-like dwellings, lack of fresh water and sanitation, densely-crowded living conditions and hunger puts them in a more perilous situation, writes Sariful Islam for South Asia Monitor
In the Indian context, the Indian Air Force and the Indian Navy have granted a permanent commission to women officers even as both have opened up some combat roles for women, write Subhranil Ghosh & Sayantan Bandyopadhyay for South Asia Monitor
While Trump and Bolsonaro are worried about the virus' impact on their nation's markets, economies and, by extension, their political future, Modi was open enough to admit that the pandemic would have economic costs, but saving lives was more important for him and his government, writes Tarun Basu for South Asia Monitor
The return of a Rajapaksa to the island’s highest office coincides with a potent form of majoritarianism in Sri Lanka, driven simultaneously by jingoism and fear among the electorate, writes Arman Sidhu for South Asia Monitor
After independence, this is perhaps the first time India is being put to such a test, with every part of the country affected. Not confined to India alone, but the entire neighbourhood of South Asia is being engulfed by this pandemic, writes Brig Anil Gupta (retd) for South Asia Monitor
Afghanistan has become an extremely dangerous country for its residents, especially religious minorities. After surviving there for hundreds of years, the Sikhs virtually don’t even have a right to exist anymore, writes Sanchita Bhattacharya for South Asia Monitor
The disruption of supply chains coupled with an unprecedented economic disaster waiting for the world due to the pandemic, the pertinent question is - has the time come for the world to have a rethink for globalization, asks Pranay Kumar Shome for South Asia Monitor
Despite Khaleda Zia’s suspended sentence and release from jail, no news except about the coronavirus is attracting the people’s attention in Bangladesh, writes Swadesh Roy for South Asia Monitor
If the habits of cooperation and mutual understanding developed while fighting together against COVID-19 allow the member countries to regain the lost pedestal of SAARC, it will augur well for peace and prosperity of the region, writes Monish Tourangbam for South Asia Monitor
In the South Asian region, only Maldives and Sri Lanka fare relatively better in global rankings of quality of healthcare system. Pakistan, which spends the least on health, has only 0.6 beds per 1000 people compared to 8.5 beds per 1000 people in Germany, writes Kavita Bajeli Datt for South Asia Monitor
For Kashmiris, who were hoping to come out of a long period of isolation after August 5, 2019 and subsequent government clampdown to ensure peace, the deadly virus has been a huge setback at a time when the thaw was beginning and restrictions easing, writes Brig Anil Gupta (retd) for South Asia Monitor
The government's role has to transition from that of an arrogant extortionist to a responsible shareholder: The reality is that governments across the world generally collect between 25-40% of income as taxes, writes Prof Rajendra Pratap Gupta for South Asia Monitor
