There is a disturbing contrast between  political-backdrop when COP28 was held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates last year and political heat that exists now for COP29 starting in Baku, Azerbaijan from 11 November. The conflicts between  Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Palestine, witnessed during COP28, have now ruthlessly intensified into regional wars with no end in sight. Savvy preparations and diplomatic conduct by the UAE, the eighth largest oil producer in the world, during  COP28 resulted in an unprecedented outcome, called the ‘UAE Consensus’. It ingrained a new sense of optimism in  the global fight against the climate crisis.

On the eve of COP29, political upheaval caused by post-election results in the USA, the second largest emitter of green-house-gases, has not only put the agenda of COP29 in limbo, but it has engulfed the world in disregarding the climate urgency.  A number of world  leaders who were prominent in the recent global meetings like Summit of the Future, BRIC and QUAD are shunning COP29. Many think that the climate crisis is now more about a crisis arising out of the climate of political, self-serving and unfulfilled promises and pledges of financial assistance to developing countries.

While the contrasts in two COPs are  striking,  similarities and parallels between  COP28 and COP29 are equally evident from the fact that both COPs are related to  smaller countries - the UAE and Azerbaijan. What more, the economies of both countries are predominantly  dependent on the export of oil and gas - the fossil fuels that the world has now agreed to transition away from. Both cities, Dubai and Baku,  are in the peninsula jutting into the sea that ships the oil to the world - Dubai on the banks of  Persian Gulf and Baku on the Caspian Sea.

What more, the presidents of both COPs are well educated in foreign countries. Dr Sultan Al Jabar, the President of COP28, was a product of University of Southern California and is Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology in the government of UAE. Mukhtar Bahadur Babayev, President of COP29, is educated in Moscow State University and is Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources in the government of Azerbaijan. Both worked in high positions in their respective state oil companies. Dr S. Al Jabar worked as Head of ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) and has led the efforts to expand solar energy in the UAE. Mukhtar Babayev of Azerbaijan was vice-president of SOCAR’s (State Oil Company) in-charge of its Ecology and Sustainability. 

Unlike the Western media which before COP28 sent verbal missiles loaded with questions on credibility and correctness of Dr S Al Jabar, CEO of one of the largest oil companies to be the president of UN’s Climate Conference, there has not seen such media onslaughts on Mukhtar Babayev, even though he was also vice president of Azerbaijan’s largest oil company.

COP28 in Dubai renewed hope 

COP28 was also known as the "first-ever Global Stocktake" conference. Global stock-take was a distinct and  necessary process agreed under the Paris Agreement to review and assess efforts of GHG-mitigation by the countries and status of financial assistance made available by developed countries to the developing countries. This exercise was critical for assessing the emission reductions achieved globally, fixing accountability and corrections needed for the pace and direction to fulfil the agreement's goals.

COP28 indeed made history when the countries committed for the first time in 30 years of UN negotiations on "transition away from fossil fuels - coal, gas and oil - in a just, orderly, and equitable manner". The very fact that such a decision came after the exercise of global-stock take and that too in the COP in a country whose economy is mainly dependent on fossil fuel was pleasantly  promising. It reinforced the hope that the world can come together and forge partnerships to address the climate crisis. 

Secondly, the countries agreed to accelerate action on tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling energy efficiency improvements  and phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. All actions aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5°C above the average global temperature during  the pre-industrial years of 1850-1900. COP28 took into consideration Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC that specifically called for reductions of emissions of 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels, with the aim of achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050.

COP29 must establish climate justice

The question now is: can the world move forward from ‘UAE-Unity’  of COP28 to ‘Azerbaijani Action’ in COP29? A tsunami of other questions will also be bursting on the banks of the Caspian Sea and flooding into the negotiating rooms of COP in Baku.  Apart from transitioning away from fossil fuel, the world now needs to ‘transition away’ from falling pledges and empty promises. There is dire need to accelerate implementation by dismantling the ineffective and non-consequential framework of negotiations that encompass  ‘stock-taking and pledge-enhancing’ without responsible follow-up.

The time has come to move on the top of the agenda in COP29 to establish a climate court of justice to punish and sanction the countries that do not meet the promises on finances and mitigation. Punitive actions through international legal framework will trigger result oriented partnerships, technological innovations and bring down the costs of clean energy much faster.  

The COP29 could turn into a Finance-COP if the developed countries submit their binding financial promissory notes of the pledged finance to developing countries. COP29 should not be the start of yet another set of financial commitments embedded in the decisions of UNFCCC . It should signal undeterred actions to end the era of fossil fuels, to leave no loopholes for delay or inaction.  Rich country emitters must move first and fast-forward. They must fund the  mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage in the developing countries, without diluting the commitment and shunning the excuses.   

Polluters-pay principle must apply

The US is the largest historical cumulative emitter, having released over 500 gigatonnes of CO2 since 1850, accounting for approximately 20% of the world's total emissions. Following closely, China holds the second spot with an 11% share, trailed by Russia at 7%, Brazil at 5%, Indonesia at 4%, and India at 3.4%. Meanwhile, major European nations with colonial histories, such as Germany and the UK, contribute 4% and 3% respectively to the global total, excluding emissions from their colonial territories.

Science very clearly states that these historical emissions are responsible for the present level of global warming as emissions remain in the atmosphere for more than 100 years. There comes the concept of ‘Carbon Budget’. As per IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - remaining carbon budget is defined as "the total net amount of CO2 that human activities can still release into the atmosphere while keeping global warming to a specified level, like 1.5°C or 2°C relative to pre-industrial temperatures". The carbon budget takes into consideration carbon emitted from the year 1850 - approximate  start of Industrial Revolution. The world now has spent nearly 92.5% of its carbon budget. 

The other side of the carbon budget  is climate finance. COP28 concluded with a chain of financial pledges for developing countries for reducing emissions-mitigation, adaptation,  loss and damage.  COP29 would certainly engage in the debate on widening the gap between financial pledges that are made and those that are met. It would also assess the revised  needs of developing countries. The Independent high-level expert group has now estimated  that the  developing countries (China excluded) need an annual investment till 2030 of $2.4 trillion for transition to clean energy, adaptation, resilience, loss and damage and the conservation and restoration of the ecosystem.  

Financial assistance is enabler for technological innovation and for skill-building to achieve  the goals of the Paris Agreement. However, it must be provided with the strict conditions that drive the countries to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

It would be interesting to see how COP 29 wades through this agenda amidst political upheaval, regional wars and absence of world leaders.

Coal production increasing

Last but not least, a number of the developing countries, including India and China, are engaged in increasing their coal production and using it for producing energy. The priority for these countries is to make their population self-sufficient and energy-secure in a world surrounded by threats of wars and uncertainties.

Even though prices of solar and other clean energy are falling rapidly, the level of global electricity production from  coal and gas has not changed significantly. Countries that attended COP28 in Dubai returned after making history. Countries attending COP29 in Baku may end up wondering about the future of that history.

(The author is a noted environmentalist, former Director UNEP, and Founder Director, Green TERRE Foundation, Pune, India. Views are personal. He can be reached at shende.rajendra@gmail.com)