After the takeover of Kabul by the Taliban, discussions have centered around the miscalculation of US President Joe Biden’s administration regarding the impact of the withdrawal of the country’s troops. While the US intelligence had predicted that it would take the Taliban 3 months to capture the capital, it actually took only 10 days.

Apart from Biden, senior officials in the administration blamed the Afghanistan government and the Afghan national army for the meek surrender to the Taliban. Former President Ashraf Ghani, who fled, was denied entry into Tajikistan, and is currently in exile in United Arab Emirates (UAE), though he has vowed to return to Afghanistan.

The US President has on more than one occasion stated that irrespective of the timing of the withdrawal of troops, the outcome would have been the same. Other than the criticism of the Biden administration’s decision, there is a belief among many analysts that Beijing and Moscow along with other countries will seek to fill in the security vacuum, created as a result of US troops exiting from Afghanistan.

Likely roles of China, Russia

There is no doubt that Beijing and Moscow have been proactive in their outreach to the Taliban, and given their deep strategic convergence, they are likely to work closely. The cautiously optimistic response of both China and Russia to the Taliban takeover, in comparison to those of other countries including the UK (though even the UK has made it clear that there is no alternative but to engage with the Taliban) and India, point towards a reasonable understanding between the Taliban and Beijing and Moscow. The two big powers have put forth their concerns to the hardline Sunni Islamist group when its delegations visited Russia and China in July 2021.

A few points need to be borne in mind. First, while there is a talk of China and Russia filling in the void left by the US, American Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was quick to call both Beijing and Moscow after the takeover by the Taliban. There is no doubt, that in spite of their public posturing Moscow, Beijing and Washington will be unable to adopt a totally zero-sum approach.

Second, while Russia and China have been in touch with the Taliban and seem more comfortable than other countries, both have made it clear, that their support to the Sunni group will not be unconditional.

Russia and China have spoken in favor of an inclusive government. When asked about granting recognition to the Taliban, China also stated that it expected the formation of a government that followed ‘moderate policies’. So, even while Moscow and Beijing’s approach may be different from that of Washington, the emphasis on forming an inclusive government and a path of moderation is important.

India has a role to play 

Third, if one were to look at the South Asian context, while the Pakistani deep state’s close ties with the Taliban are a cause of concern to India, a number of countries including Britain and Russia have already stated that New Delhi will have an important role to play in Afghanistan.

UK Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab while speaking to the BBC said: "I think it's incredibly important in all of this to be working with a wider group of not just like-minded countries but partners that can exercise maximum influence. And that will mean, difficult as it is, to engage with China and Russia as well as our closer partners like India,"

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has categorically emphasized the need to work alongside India in Afghanistan. It would be apt to mention here India’s investments in the Chabahar Port and the Zaranj-Delaram Highway on the Afghanistan-Iran border.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including Qatar with which India’s ties have strengthened in recent years, could also emerge as an intermediary between New Delhi and the Taliban.

Fourth, the Taliban has itself given the impression, that it will be pragmatic as far as foreign policy is concerned -- though some of the acts carried out by them are clearly a cause of concern for all. The Taliban does need to maintain robust economic ties with a number of countries, especially in the region, and cannot be solely dependent on China.

China-India common ground?
 
Finally, notwithstanding the downward tilt in Sino-Indian ties in recent years, there is scope for both countries to work jointly in Afghanistan. In 2018, both organized a joint India-China Training Program for Afghan diplomats.

Following last year’s tense standoff, there is a seemingly scarce possibility of reviving such a program right now, but there is scope for both Beijing and New Delhi to find common ground in Afghanistan in the longer run.

India’s approach towards Afghanistan should be dictated by its economic and strategic interests and it needs to judge the Taliban by its actions while being flexible enough to leave room for divergences. New Delhi should not allow its policy vis-à-vis Afghanistan to be dictated either by statements made by the Taliban or solely by past baggage.

Additionally, India should work jointly with other friendly countries, like UK, Iran, Qatar and other Arab countries to ensure it remains an important player in Afghanistan.

(The writer is a New Delhi-based policy analyst associated with The Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University, Sonipat, India. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at tsmaini@jgu.edu.in)