"The so-called special operation executed by Kremlin in invading Ukraine as an effort of "denazification" of Ukraine has altered the current international order, where Russia’s image is marred and its soft power influence in the West has seen a robust decline. Banning some of the Russian courses offered by Italian universities in Italy and cancellation of Russian ballet performances across the UK are palpable examples showing the bitter reality of what Russian soft power symbols face in the aftermath of the Ukrainian invasion. It is in this context, the Russian strategy of approaching the East for a strategic alliance comes to the fore and it takes further bent towards South Asia by extending its influence to Sri Lanka. 

Sri Lanka is seen as an exotic travel destination among Russians, but the diplomatic ties between the two countries date back to 1956. Since the Soviet era, Sri Lanka was largely viewed by Moscow as a friendly country, except during the administration of J.R Jayewardene, whose hobnobbing with the West deviated Sri Lanka from the chosen path of non-alignment. 

The latest manifestation of Russian diplomacy in Sri Lanka is its promise to build a nuclear power plant in the island nation that may run two reactors and generate 300 megawatts of energy, which will be a great solace for a nation tormented by a severe energy crisis. The negotiations held between the Sri Lankan ambassador to the Russian Federation and Russian nuclear giant Rosatom at the recently concluded St. Petersburg International Economic Forum have been promising as both parties agreed to go ahead with the project and the onus is now on the government of Sri Lanka to get the cabinet’s stamp of approval for it. 

Russia's energy geopolitics 

The importance of energy and its impact on geopolitical dynamics was seen in the 1973 oil crisis. However, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,  energy security concerns gained a level of prominence not seen in the 1970s.  Russia is the world's largest natural gas provider, and the second largest exporter of oil and coal, which strengthens Russia’s energy dominance that has helped it to override all the West-led economic sanctions. 

In the meantime, Russia seems to have quietly developed a strategic interest in the Indian Ocean Region and reportedly plans to establish its first naval base in Sudan that will legitimise its access to the Indian Ocean. 

In light of these strategic moves, the proposed nuclear power plant in Sri Lanka would inevitably lead to elevating its status as an influential player in the Indian Ocean affairs. Nuclear diplomacy has been developed by Russia as a soft power tool that is materially beneficial nature to many countries of the Global South compared to the soft-power tools deployed by the Western countries. In particular, Russia’s proposal to establish Sri Lanka’s first nuclear power plant comes on the heels of the completion of a similar nuclear power plant in Bangladesh, which has paved the path for Russia to play a larger role in South Asian geopolitics.

Growing interest in Indian Ocean 

The nuclear power production in Sri Lanka would come under Rosatom, which is the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation, the direct heir to the Soviet Ministry of Atomic Energy, which was established in the aftermath of the Chornobyl nuclear accident. Reorganized as a state corporation in 2007, Rosatom is fully owned by the Russian state, and the president of the Russian Federation determines the company’s objectives. Since its inception, Rosatom has become increasingly active in the international nuclear power market and has become a leading provider of key nuclear-related services. Construction of as many as ten reactor units started between 2007 and 2017, and between 2009 and 2018, the company accounted for 23 of 31 orders placed, and about half of the units under construction worldwide. The polemics of the West depicts Rosatam as an integral part of the Russian state, which would accelerate accomplishing the geopolitical objectives of the Kremlin, and this is partially true with regard to the current energy global energy domination by the Russian Federation. 

Nevertheless, Russia’s strategic entry into Sri Lanka is likely to have consequential outcomes for the geopolitical future of the island. First, the proposed power plant will result in gaining more Russian influence in the country as Moscow will also train Sri Lankan scientists. Such a move will have a positive impact on the local intelligentsia just as the Soviet Union did in the past by providing attractive scholarships to students and scholars from the Global South, including Sri Lanka and South Asia. 

Secondly, the construction of a nuclear plant will be a critical factor in legitimizing the growing Russian interest in the Indian Ocean Region, which has paved the path for closer security cooperation between Russia and China as both countries were engaged in a joint naval exercise in the Indian Ocean off the port of Durban, South Africa in early 2023. 

Chinese influence in Sri Lanka took a beating after the fall of the  Rajapaksa administration and it impacted the country's ties with India as well.  In this context, the policymakers of Colombo should be more cautious in dealing with another global power as its consequences can be critical for the future of Sri Lanka and the region.    

(The writer is a visiting researcher at Science Po, Paris and working on his Ph.D. at Institute of Law, Politics and Development in Scuola Superiore Sant Anna in Pisa, Italy. Views are personal. He can be contacted at punsaraprint10@gmail.com)