Jammu & Kashmir held elections after a decade in September-October 2024 for the first time following the 5th August 2019 abrogation of Article 370 (special status of the State of Jammu and Kashmir) and reorganization of the state into a union territory, which had made it subject to greater New Delhi control.  

A historically unstable yet strategically important region, Jammu & Kashmir is a contested land between India, Pakistan and China, even though it is mostly administered by India. These elections, though local, shape the geopolitical status of East Asia. Moreover, Jammu & Kashmir’s recent discoveries of lithium have given it a seminal role in the global semiconductor wars and the Sino-Indian rivalry. Located between three nuclear powers, Jammu & Kashmir forms the frontline in the hostilities between India and China-Pakistan that have become the prevailing feature of South Asia geopolitics.

Pointers from the election results

The October 2024 results gave the INDI Alliance, comprising the National Conference (NC), Indian National Congress (INC) and Communist Party of India (Marxist), a majority of 49 seats in the 90-member legislative assembly. The comeback of the NVC, the biggest political player in the Kashmir valley, from 15 in 2014 to 42 (23.43% votes) in 2024, coupled with the massive fall of Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) from 28 seats to just six seats (8.87% votes) has ended the bipolar competition between the Valley parties. 

Parallelly, the fall of the INC to only six seats have ended its relevance in the Jammu region. This coincides with the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with 29 seats (25.64% votes), with all seats from the Jammu region where the BJP has been able to consolidate, making the BJP the principal opposition in the union territory legislature.

The less-than-eager BJP-led Union government held elections in response to the Supreme Court verdict in December 2023 ruling that the Indian government must ensure that election is held for the legislature in Jammu and Kashmir within a year. The Modi government’s apprehension towards statehood for Jammu and Kashmir and to relinquish administrative powers to an autonomous regional government is not without cause. Chinese aggression along the Line of Actual Control in the Ladakh region and the ever-present perception of the Pakistani threat across the Line of Control makes Indian insecurities a justified one. Having fought both Pakistan and China for control over the region, Indian policy has always been geared towards a firmer political grip over the region.

Regional-religious divides

The outcome shows a clear disjuncture between the two areas and the two communities constituting Jammu & Kashmir. Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley gave a clear verdict in favor of the INDI alliance, whereas Hindu-majority Jammu region gave overwhelming support to the BJP. This may further  fracture the two communities in the region, which has already suffered through the 1990 genocide and exodus of the Kashmiri Pandits. While the Hindu vote stood firm with BJP, its failure to win goodwill in the Kashmir Valley reflects how Article 370 remains a key poll issue for Kashmiri Muslims. 

Reports over the BJP’s less than discrete engagement with secessionist politicians, allegedly to fragment the Muslim vote in the Kashmir Valley between the established NC, PDP and smaller secessionist parties, had left the established parties disgruntled. The Union government was accused of using the lieutenant governor (the union territory’s constitutional head) to act as the long arm of New Delhi. Further suspicion over the partial treatment against Kashmir, as Jammu received a greater increase in seats at the legislature than Kashmir, disproportionate to the population trends, left Kashmiris distrustful.

Democratization of Kashmir 

While Kashmir Valley has been prone to boycotting elections to protest "Indian rule", the 2024 elections saw a clear break in this historic trend. Kashmiris had chosen to hold a "protest vote" against established "pro-India" politicians (like the NC, INC & PDP) in favor of outsiders, who in this case were secessionists, during the parliamentary elections of May 2024. The Kashmiri voters however realigned themselves during the union territory elections, showing cohesion in support of the NC as the preferred party to represent the Valley and completely marginalizing the secessionist candidates. 

While the BJP began on the backfoot as the party of Hindutva (political Hinduism) inspiring little confidence among Kashmiri Muslims, the elections provide vindication to Modi’s BJP government even in its defeat. It was a feat in itself to hold peaceful elections with all political parties contesting under the post-2019 arrangement, and a 63.88% turnout to show. The simultaneous drop in confidence in the Union government and  electoral upsurge is indicative of deepening of democracy in Jammu & Kashmir. 

Shift in government strategy

Yet, the election marks a break in the Indian government's approach to militancy and secessionism in Jammu & Kashmir. The active participation of secessionist elements into electoral politics, with independent candidates that were openly backed by the still banned Jamaat-e-Islami (listed as a terror organization under the Indian government), and the newest addition to the fray, Engineer Abdul Rashid Sheik (an accused for terrorism) and his Awami Ittehad Party, shows a possible shift in India’s long-standing strategy of military solutions to the political problem of religious radicalism and militancy in Jammu & Kashmir. 

This strategy has had its merits in the past, where secessionist elements were included into electoral processes to wither extremism (most famously Laldenga in Mizoram). But do the inclusions of erstwhile dissidents into active politics intuit a shift from militancy to constitutionalism in the region? Would mainstreaming militants calm the secessionist sentiments of the region and bring them back into the democratic folds? Or would this act adversely to normalize a tendency of militancy in the region? These questions remain tied to the future of democracy in the region.

Beyond the 2024 elections 

Nevertheless, re-establishing democratic processes is an essential first step in eradicating militancy  in Jammu and Kashmir, with an urgent need to re-inspire trust of the people in the Indian government. Militancy has been an outcome of radicalization of the youth in the Kashmir Valley, a problem that can be tracked through sustained economic development and a participative democracy. Reinstituting democratic processes will be merely procedural if the Indian government fails to substantiate that with human development and social justice. 

The thrust cannot simply lay on maintaining security in the region, but also a complete transformation of relations. This requires a reconciliation between the Hindus and Muslims of the region who have suffered through communal violence. The de-essentialization of religious identity is crucial in building fraternity and retaining long term internal peace in the region, while at the same time limiting Pakistani intervention through the support of the secessionist movement in the Kashmir valley. 

The Jammu & Kashmir economy is dependent heavily on tourism, which has suffered the most from prolonged violence and interborder terrorism. Peace is essential to economic growth in the region, while harboring fraternity with local autonomy is crucial to the trust building exercise. As the Supreme Court hears pleas over timely restoration of statehood to Jammu & Kashmir, the Indian government is presented with an opportunity to make the reclamation a smooth transition to local leadership, reassuring the  people in Jammu & Kashmir that they too are integral to the constitutional fabric of the nation. 

The Indian State's traditional apprehensions over giving autonomy to the Jammu & Kashmir government must be foregone, because trust building is reciprocal, and giving agency to the people of the region is essential to including them as participative citizens in Indian democracy. Democracy and development have therefore become the Indian government’s primary cures to militancy in Jammu & Kashmir, with the future of these two promises, kept or unkept, determining the future of peace in the region.  

The immortal words Amir Khusrau on Kashmir will only then be realised once again:

“Agar firdaus bar roo-e zameen ast, Hameen ast-o hameen ast-o hameen ast.”

[If there is a paradise on earth, It is this, it is this, it is this.]

 (The author is a postgraduate researcher pursuing M.A. in Political Science at St. Xavier’s College (Autonomous), Kolkata & M.P.A. from Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delhi. Views expressed are personal. He can be reached at allendavidsimon2003@gmail.com or linkedin.com/in/allen-david-simon )