A promising development has emerged in the ongoing efforts to repatriate the Rohingyas. In the first phase, authorities have identified 180,000 Rohingyas—out of the nearly 800,000 who have sought refuge in Bangladesh—as eligible to return to Myanmar. Myanmar has assured Bangladesh of its cooperation, and final verification of an additional 70,000 individuals is currently underway. Bangladesh submitted these lists to Myanmar in six phases between 2018 and 2020. Most recently, during the sixth BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok on April 4, Myanmar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister conveyed the update to Dr. Khalilur Rahman, High Representative of the Chief Adviser to Bangladesh.

Although bilateral and multilateral negotiations have been attempted several times over the years, meaningful progress has been elusive—until now. This is the first instance of Myanmar officially acknowledging returnees from a verified list, sparking renewed hope for tangible progress. Myanmar authorities have also committed to expediting verification of the remaining 550,000 names.

Repatriating the Rohingyas is inherently a long and complex process. The Bangladesh government’s initial move—internationalizing the issue—was pivotal. Now, with Myanmar recognizing 180,000 individuals as eligible for return, Dhaka must seize the momentum and sustain pressure to convert these assurances into action. This recognition is not just symbolic; it represents a significant diplomatic achievement.

However, such recognition must not remain confined to paper. UN Secretary-General António Guterres has recently urged Myanmar to ensure the safe and sustainable return of the Rohingyas—an appreciated intervention. It is hoped that the UN can now play a more assertive role in ensuring progress on the ground.

Despite the positive signals, the path ahead remains fraught with challenges. The security situation in Rakhine, the Rohingyas’ homeland, is vastly different today. Control of the region has largely shifted to the Arakan Army, leaving the Myanmar junta with little authority. This emerging reality adds a new layer of complexity to the repatriation process and must be addressed proactively.

Strategic Path Forward

To navigate these complexities, Bangladesh must now adopt a multi-pronged strategy:

1. Sustain Domestic and International Focus: The Rohingya issue must continue to be framed as a critical national priority at home and a pressing humanitarian issue abroad.

2. Manage Regional Relationships: Bangladesh should strategically balance its ties with both the Myanmar junta and the Arakan Army, recognizing the evolving ground realities in Rakhine.

3. Strengthen Diplomatic Alliances: Greater engagement with China, ASEAN nations—especially Malaysia and Indonesia—and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) will be essential. Follow-up diplomatic initiatives on repatriation must begin without delay.

During his recent visit to China, Chief Adviser Dr. Muhammad Yunus urged Beijing to take a more proactive stance on Rohingya repatriation. In response, President Xi Jinping assured that China would raise the issue with Myanmar. Days later, Myanmar’s announcement signaled the potential influence of international stakeholders. The more pressure China exerts, the more likely Myanmar will cooperate. If Bangladesh’s interim government can advance the repatriation agenda, it will significantly ease the burden on the next administration.

A Race Against Time

Nonetheless, the key question remains: will repatriation be implemented smoothly? Clashes between the Arakan Army and junta forces are intensifying. With much of Myanmar already slipping from central control, ensuring a safe and orderly return for the Rohingyas becomes increasingly challenging. The involvement of multiple actors, beyond the junta, will be essential.

The formal recognition of 180,000 Rohingyas can serve as documentary evidence for repatriation—if not today, then in the future. However, if the junta fails to reestablish authority in Rakhine, these documents may remain symbolic. Even if the central government regains control, local power structures in Rakhine may still be dominated by the Arakan Army. In that scenario, negotiation and compromise will be necessary to ensure the repatriation effort’s success.

Meanwhile, the prolonged delay in repatriation has led to a rise in crime, extortion, and unrest in Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar. Over 1.25 million registered Rohingyas remain in Bangladesh—a burden that is growing increasingly difficult to bear. Donor fatigue is also setting in, with international aid declining and further cuts likely. This reduction in assistance has triggered anxiety within the refugee population.

Time is running out. Bangladesh must intensify its diplomatic engagement to secure repatriation before the situation in the camps deteriorates further.

(The author is a Dhaka-based independent columnist specializing in South Asian affairs. Views are personal. He can be contacted at ibrahimkhalilahasan@gmail.com)