Questions are numerous. There is a galore of doubts as well as apprehensions about the little over three months old farmers’ protests against the three farm laws enacted by the Narendra Modi government in September last year with experts and seasoned observers expressing contrarian view on the movement.

A group of experts including media columnists having a soft corner for Prime Minister Modi and his government are saying that already a fragile unity of purpose among different leaders of the farm unions is cracking up as divisions and difference of opinion among them are growing,    

On the other hand, there are a number of political observers, who hold the saffron party responsible for many of the current problems faced by the county, are asserting that farmers’ protests are spreading to different parts, adversely impacting the image of the BJP and that of Modi.  

Therefore a dispassionate look at the ongoing movement and the Modi government’s handling of it is required. Farmers have been demanding the withdrawal of the three acts enacted by the Modi government in September without much discussion either in the two houses of parliament or put it up to scrutiny by a select committee which could have recommended an amendment to the three bills after a detailed discussion and consultations with the stakeholders before they were put before the two houses for approval.

The absence of a time-tested mechanism and the rush with which the government went ahead enacting the laws enraged farmers' unions and their leaders across the country. A majority of farmers' unions asked, rather appealed, to the central government to reconsider these acts. When the government did not respond to appeals then these unions announced their protests.

On November 5, more than 200 farm unions from 22 states organized a nation-wide road blockade against the laws. On November 25 after a series of protests farmers from Punjab and Haryana decided to move their protests to Delhi so that the powerful Modi government takes note of their grievances and give a Delhi Chalo (March to Delhi) call. 

The BJP-led state government in Haryana tried its best to stop the farmers marching towards Delhi as it dug up ditches on the road and used force to stop them but the state government could not break their resolve. Denied permission to enter Delhi, farmers decided to start their protests at the border checkpoints on Haryana and Uttar Pradesh border setting their camps.      

It was only on November 28, Union Home Minister Amit Shah offered to hold talks with farmers, provided the Delhi borders were vacated, and the protest site moved to a site in Burari in Delhi which was turned down by protesting leaders. In turn, they demanded permission for moving to Janata Mantar in central Delhi - a km away from parliament - which was rejected by the Delhi Police.

In between negotiations between the government and farmers union continued. But the talks remained inconclusive.

Even while several rounds of talks between the government and the unions were continuing, the issue went to the Supreme Court and it put the implementation of the three laws on hold and formed a committee to recommend changes, if any, in the three acts.

International support to farmers’ agitation began to pour in unsettling the government which was deploying all means to derail the agitation and break the resolve of the protesting farmers even while it was talking to unions. Ministers, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders, and party spokespersons began to raise accusing fingers at the protesting leaders suggesting that they were being supported by Khalistanis (a Sikh separatist movement) and other terrorist groups.

However, the farmers and their leaders did not get provoked and the agitation continued in a peaceful manner which evoked the images of Gandhian protests during the freedom struggle, On January 20, the government proposed suspension of the three laws for a period of 18 months and setting up of a joint committee to discuss the three legislations. The farmer rejected the government’s offer and demanded that the three laws be scrapped.

The government, that was convinced of the utility of the enacted laws were determined from the very beginning not to concede the core demand of the scrapping of the three laws, had adopted delaying tactics with the view to tire out the protesters and discrediting the movement for playing into the hands of the inimical groups operating from foreign soil including Khalistanis even while maintaining the pretense of negotiations.

However, the breaking out of violence on Republic Day (January 26) during a tractor rally that had been permitted by the Delhi Police on designated routes, but which got diverted, was a serious setback to the movement.

Meanwhile, the government has not made any more offers of talks and the impasse continues resulting in protests disappearing from news headlines and media coverage about it reducing. Absence of breaking news about the agitation has led to different interpretations with some predicting the beginning of the end of protests.

Development is being interpreted by interested parties which enjoy tacit official support that the government is winning the battle and the three acts are going to stay.

But the reality is totally different as farmer leaders are traveling to different parts of the country to hold public meetings and rallies to spread awareness among people at large and farmers in particular. Farmer union leaders are of the view that there is no point in crowding the venues at the Delhi borders where symbolic presence is enough. And instead, feel that there is a greater need to keep the flame of protests burning and therefore it is crucial to undertake tours across the country.

Reports coming from parts of Western Uttar Pradesh where the BJP leaders are undertaking mass contact programmes reveal that opposition to the ruling party at the centre as well as in UP is growing on the ground. ‘BJP go back’ posters have been reported from some areas.

The battle between the government and the farmers is continuing and it seems to be a long one. Farmers know that only a political defeat in elections can make the prime minister bow down before the will of the people and they are working at that. Who wins, at last, is yet unpredictable. An adverse verdict in UP may be a deciding factor.

(The writer is Research Associate, Observer Research Foundation. The views are personal)